Betting on Evo

Discussion in 'General Chit-chat' started by deluks917, Jun 18, 2012.

  1. deluks917

    deluks917 Yomi League 1 Champion

    Does anyone want to place some bets on evolution. I am not sure what type of bets you want to make but I am down for some action. Bets from like 5 -100 dollar range imo. If anyone wants to work something out post.
  2. Bob199

    Bob199 Well-Known Member

    Ja, I'm in. Bets on brackets/winner/prop bets?
  3. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I'd need to actually see the brackets before I'd be willing to actually make legitimate bets but some 'crazy' predictions...
    Daigo doesn't make top 8.
    Top 8 will have 8 different characters.

    Xian will make top 4.

    An international player will tie for 5th.
    There will be fewer characters used in top 16 than AE top 16.

    As for the other games... I don't care enough about them. MK9 finals will probably be VVV vs VVV. SCV winners finals will be Keev vs an American, losers finals will be the American vs an International, grand finals will be Keev vs the International, Keev will win. SFxT will generate the most hype.
  4. Eji1700

    Eji1700 Well-Known Member

    MK9- Kabal mirror finals. Or if not then at least one player using Kabal.
    SCV- I'll bet on one unexpected character in top 8(aeon, ralph, voldo, etc). Further probably an apat in top 8, but he won't make finals.
  5. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I don't have that much faith SCV. In top 8 at best I expect to see:
    1-2 Nightmare
    2-3 Violas
    1-2 Xibas
    1 Mitsurugi
    1 Natsu
    1 Pyrrha, Pat, aPat or oPyrrha

    If anyone beats Keev it'll be an aPat with some crazy new tech or a random with amazing just guarding. There's also an outside chance of some 'crazy' Maxi tech but I doubt it.

    Less optimistically top 8 is:
    1-2 Nightmares
    3-5 Violas
    2-3 Xibas
    1 Mitsurugi

    I'd be shocked to see an Aeon in the top 16.

    As for MK9, I don't expect a Kabal mirror simply because of the kommunity's tendency to play the matchup and kounter pick rather than specialize (because the frequent patches make life hard for character specialists). I think a Jax or Kung Lao mirror is more likely than Kabal.
  6. Eji1700

    Eji1700 Well-Known Member

    I think more mitsus less xiba's for the SC lists. Lots of people have pocket mitsu and he's a much more solid character than xiba.
    I really don't think an apat is going to beat keev. Solid as apat is I think the mass amounts of JF's have lots of people with the "if you could play him perfect" mentality, but honestly woahazz is basically there. He wins, but i'm not sure apat is strong enough to handle keev's amazing spacing, and in fact think it's sorta his biggest weakness.

    And i'm saying characters like aeon. I think almost anyone from the cast could make top 8 with the exception of ralph.

    Mk9- weren't they done patching? I mean the VVV matchup seems likely, but reo tends to kabal when it matters, and i'd say cd jr is more likely to get eliminated than reo.
  7. deluks917

    deluks917 Yomi League 1 Champion

    I would be willing to bet on Justin Wong to win any of his main games. I am also open to betting against keev.
  8. Lofobal

    Lofobal Well-Known Member

    I bet it won't have any games I care about.
  9. Bob199

    Bob199 Well-Known Member

    Wong's been winning almost everything he's played in lately. Anything less than top 4 in AE would surprise me and him winning is a good possibility.

    Agreed, need brackets before any major bets. The different character top 8 bet would be fairly safe if both Wong and Ricky didn't play Rufus.
  10. deluks917

    deluks917 Yomi League 1 Champion

    I would be willing to bet on a wong double win.
  11. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I actually don't think Ricky will make top 8. He's been chocking allot lately and although he keeps getting away with it, I expect it's about to catch up with him. More importantly though I expect Infiltration to make top 8.

    Wait, seriously? That's almost like betting against Bala in KoF at this point.
  12. Scattercat

    Scattercat Active Member

    I'm betting on reproductive rate to continue to be strong, though one can never discount the parasites completely. Sure, intelligence looks like the optimal strategy at this stage in the game, but I honestly think it's a fluke and that one primate species just got super lucky about circumstances. One big crash and they're toast; it takes them forever to get a working population back up.
    bbobjs, link6616 and Scarbo like this.
  13. CrystalChaos

    CrystalChaos Moderator Staff Member
    Justin Wong is in pool J8 for umvc3, I23 for sfxt, C11 for sf4, A24 for scv, K17 for mk9, D37 for kof13.
    Maybe someone can determine what this means.
  14. Lofobal

    Lofobal Well-Known Member

    That for some unfathomable reason SFxT is going to be a main game?
    Remy77077 likes this.
  15. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Justin seriously entered all the games? I definitely respect that but...
  16. Bob199

    Bob199 Well-Known Member

    So what's the over/under on how many different games Justin takes? 1? 2?

    He played well at CEO and was the only player on team North America to have a winning record.
  17. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    True but did you see the WAY he took those games? Like he made about 5 mistakes in top 8 that SHOULD have cost him the game but managed to steal it regardless. Don't get me wrong I definitely think he's one of if not THE best player but a 1500+ man tournament is more gives more than enough room for Ricky to hang himself.
  18. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Finished looking at the pools for AE... wow Daigo got kinda screwed by the pools and has to fight Latif!? IDK what to think like Viper was nerfed and Latif hasn't exactly been focusing on SF4AE2012 and Daigo is back to using his signature Ryu... but still, he's Latif, there's a very real possibility Daigo won't make it out of pools in winners!

    Upon closer inspection, Momochi and Chocoblanka are registered as American? What?
  19. Bob199

    Bob199 Well-Known Member

    Where are you seeing the pools at?
  20. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Pool C17 used to have Latif in it but they fixed that apparently and now he's switched places with Mychal Vazquez who used to be in Pool C18

    I think they made some other changes too... and now I have to start over with my predictions =(.
  21. Bob199

    Bob199 Well-Known Member

    From what I saw, the only pool I saw where there were multiple players that I recognized was e1 (mago & flashmetroid)

    Btw did I just miss them or are Poongko and Fuudo not playing?
  22. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    You missed Fuudo (A19), I don't recall seeing Poongko though.
  23. Fry

    Fry Well-Known Member

    Here comes a new challenger!
  24. polarity

    polarity Member

    Betting against BALA is not a horrible move when Kaoru, Oeppu, Kyabetsu, Dakou and Xiaohai will be there. The latter three might not be a big deal for him depending on how much they've been playing 13 (hopefully Dakou and Xiaohai aren't just playing 98 any more like they were at Shadowloo), but Kaoru and Oeppu are definitely scary. MADkof, lacid and guts look pretty strong on the Korean front too.
  25. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Mago considered himself among Japan's best KoF13 players, BALA beat him FREE without even using one of his main teams. Like even if Mago overrated his ability, that fact that he thought he was among the best means he could at least hang with them; BALA is clearly a level OR TWO above him though.

    Several supposedly high profile Chinese players showed up to Shadowloo Showdown and Tokido, although he didn't win, made them look fairly unimpressive. Tokido got completely destroyed at MLG. Also my general understanding is that KoF13 hasn't been popular there at least since the console version came out.

    As for Korean players... ok, they COULD be sleeping giants, I really have no direct insight into their scene but I'm honestly not expecting much. There's also Xian from Singapore, I have no idea how good he actually is at the game though.

    Anyway regardless of how strong any of these sleeper cells might be, you have to remember BALA (and most of the Mexico crew) plays like 90% of the characters in the game in multiple orders at BALA's level (a level about a tier above anything I've seen from anywhere else). When I hear reports of strong players from hidden scenes, they always have a particular team or character they specialize; meanwhile BALA specializes in ALL of them. Finally, if there are amazing sleeper players out there, why didn't they show up for either of the MLGs, or even publicly express interest? I mean Star Craft is at MLG so it's not like they can even use the "I've never heard of MLG excuse" or whatever... especially the Koreans.

    Betting against BALA in KoF is absolutely insane. I'd probably need at least 200:1 odds to even consider it (and honestly I think fair odds is closer to 1000:1).
  26. Eji1700

    Eji1700 Well-Known Member

    Can i get some links to awesome BALA footage? You've got me curious.

    And personally i'd possibly bet that Jwong won't win 1. I haven't been watching him lately, but I feel like he always overextends himself and then does decent in everything instead of amazing in 2 or 3 things. I'd certainly bet that he won't top 4 in SCV, MK9, and KoF, and great as he is the competition in his two best imo (AE and Marvel) is nasty these days.

    I watched the CEO video from winners finals to grands. He's obviously good, but at the very least that vid didn't make him look "two levels above" everyone else.
  27. deluks917

    deluks917 Yomi League 1 Champion

    eji 20 dollars Jwong wins at least 1?

    Also I will bet that Bala does not win assuming odds much worse than 200-1.
  28. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I suppose the most impressive moment, the moment that REALLY distinguished him as a player to me was SCR2011. At the time, the general direction of the community was "We believe we've identified the top tiers, now let's run them." Instead of following that trend, BALA opted to run Clark, a character most players simply weren't respecting. I'm not sure I'd call it a blowup exactly but it was fairly brutal.

    At MLG Anaheim he plays Tokido in winners quarter finals and uses Yuri/Takuma/Shen, which is interesting because I believe he ran King as point for every match except this one; what's interesting about this is Romance plays and loses 3-2 to Tokido earlier in the bracket with King/Yuri/Benimaru and Hwa/Yuri/Benimaru. So here we have a case where BALA clearly identifies something he believes to be a player weakness (not a bad matchup or a matchup weakness but a player he believes is inexperienced enough against a particular character that deviating from his standard team might yield a significant advantage)... unfortunately the switch to Yuri doesn't really do much for him but regardless he takes him 3-0 regardless.

    I'm told he pulls a similar stunt vs Mago at CEO (?) where he opts to seemingly randomly play Duo Lon. Supposedly when asked why he said something like "Come on, Mago doesn't know Duo Lon!" and he was right!

    I'll admit the things I'm praising him for here aren't especially impressive in the context of the FGC as a whole but in the context of KoF13 I just haven't seen scenes outside of California with players who are willing to completely stray far from their "established" team and on the occasions where they do, they're generally unwilling to root the base and have a core character they keep regardless. I also haven't seen allot of character diversity coming out of Asia and the characters we constantly see them using (Karate, Takuma and Hwa for example) are characters BALA has proven himself against even at extremely high level play. That's not to say he's definitely fought the best of the best of character specialists for those characters, but they really don't seem to give him any significant trouble. That's also not to say Asia has no character diversity (China for example supposedly has THE BEST Terry player) but the California scene has such strong character representation that I don't expect him to get caught off guard easily.
  29. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    I would put 20 dollars on jwong not taking 1st in two games.
  30. polarity

    polarity Member

    Mago is not even close to one of the top Japanese KOF13 players, I don't know where you heard that but I doubt he said it himself. Kaoru, Shoki, Haregoro and Dune are the best players in Tokyo at least. Watching their footage, they have more consistent execution than the SoCal crew and don't do risky stuff (reversal EX moves, rolling, etc) in pressure situations. They play a lot more "solid" and less wild in general, as is typical for Japanese players. Kaoru has a very real shot of taking Evo. Oeppu won KOF13 at SBO but that was a very different (bad) game and a random tournament format. I'd still expect him to fare well in the new version.

    Xiaohai and Dakou didn't look too impressive at Shadowloo because they had obviously barely been playing 13. Xiaohai is inarguably the best KOF98 player in the world and probably has the best KOF fundamentals on the planet, with Dakou not far behind. If they learn 13, they will beat everyone.
  31. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I believe one of those guys on one of those streams said Mago said he thought he was among the best KoF13 players in Japan; which is admittedly not particularly convincing.

    Either way Mago and Tokido both trained with Dune. Both were fairly confident they would beat BALA and you can presume that if they were so confident in being able to take BALA (despite how overwhelmingly dominant he's been tournament placing and as a source of new tech for the community) they probably hold their own at least against Dune. BALA made both of them look fairly free.

    Consistent execution is nice but it's not everything and KoF isn't SF, playing safe is overrated. I'm curious to see how good they really are but I'm honestly having trouble tracking down matches featuring these people.
  32. MajinSweet

    MajinSweet Well-Known Member

    So Bala got third place at TheRunBack tonight. I'm expecting an upset at EVO for sure.
  33. polarity

    polarity Member

    I wouldn't put much stock in BALA losing at a weekly tournament that runs absurdly late where he's using some weird random team. I don't expect BALA to lose to any American (North or South) at Evo... he's the best player on both continents by a good margin IMO. The one situation I see him losing is if he's in winners bracket and dicks around with some goofy team game one, then loses game two in a close match... so let me revise my statement to I don't see him getting eliminated by any American at Evo. I like him over the Koreans too, though I'm not quite as confident about that.

    I suspect only a Japanese or Chinese player will be able to beat him, but I'll be rooting for BALA all the way - it would be cool to see a Justin Wong MvC2-style reign of dominance again.
  34. Claytus

    Claytus Well-Known Member

    Yeah, the general opinion around where I live is that BALA is just head-and-shoulders above everyone else, and KOF is merely a competition for second place. Like, people are seriously saying that he is possibly the most dominant player in any fighting game to date. But we'll see.
  35. AhhDee!

    AhhDee! Member

    Stupid crazy highly unlikable predictions:
    Mago wins UMvC3, I was surprised when I figured out he actually played Marvel.
    FChamp getting scrubbed out and doesn't make it out of pools.
    No Rufus in top 8 of SF
  36. polarity

    polarity Member

    He's got a long way to go to challenge Justin Wong's reign of dominance in MvC2, which was far more hotly contested.

    You'd be better off betting on a Japanese player that really plays the game, like Chou, Abegen, or Kubo, all of whom could probably make top 8 at least. I suspect at least one of them will.
  37. specs

    specs Well-Known Member

    Woolie is going to beat Daigo in a surprise turn of events.
  38. Kayin

    Kayin Well-Known Member

    Floe will cry at my hands.

    Bet on it.
    zem, bbobjs, CWheezy and 2 others like this.
  39. Eji1700

    Eji1700 Well-Known Member

    This is probably the highlight of EVO for me and my brother.
    specs likes this.
  40. MajinSweet

    MajinSweet Well-Known Member

    Currrently on the way to EVO (Internet on planes? WHEN DID THIS HAPPEN) so what are my chances of beating Crizzle in SF4? Bad right?
  41. CrystalChaos

    CrystalChaos Moderator Staff Member

  42. Lofobal

    Lofobal Well-Known Member

    I should've made a bet that blazblue would go on way too long and delay guilty gear. That would've been a sure-fire bet, as always.
  43. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Wow SCV was actually full of surprises... game's still ass but definitely didn't expect 0 Violas, 3 Pats, 1 Tira in top 8
  44. Bob199

    Bob199 Well-Known Member

    • WW.MCZ|Infiltration (Akuma, Gouken)
    • MCZ|Daigo Umehara (Ryu)

    • Human Bomb (Sakura)
    • CVPR|PR Balrog (Balrog)
    • AVerMedia|Gamerbee (Adon)
    • BT|Dieminion (Guile)
    • eLivePro.Qanba|XiaoHai (Cammy)
    • TH|Poongko (Seth)
    Haven't found the exact pairings yet but this is what they were saying. Let the picks begin.
  45. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    After how wrong I've been so far, I don't think I'd be willing to put money down on this. I mean if someone had told me that only 1 American character and 1 Japanese player would appear in top 8 and they'd be Guile and Daigo respectively, I'd have called them insane. Anyway my guess would be:

    Infiltration > Daigo
    He has a good amount of Ryu experience, has been known to play Ryu at a high level and although Daigo's Ryu is a completely different beast, Infiltration doesn't seem likely to crack to Daigo factor. Unfortunately Infiltration supposedly has a pocket Hakan and Hakan is one of the characters Daigo was supposedly looking to avoid so I wouldn't be shocked if Infiltration used his first game trying it out... which could be amazing... or a complete disaster. On the other hand Daigo has plenty of Akuma experience and a grip of pocket characters as well... this could be a very interesting unpredictable match... or Daigo might shit on him like he did Gamerbee.

    PR Balrog >> Human Bomb
    Human Bomb's Sakura didn't seem particularly impressive, PR Balrog has plenty of experience in this match and I believe the matchup is supposed to be in Balrog's favor anyway? Should be fairly free, although if PR Balrog gets blown up in marvel or something I suppose that might throw him off his game or something.

    Gamerbee >> Dieminion
    Gamerbee took it fairly convincingly basically every time they've met as far as I can recall and although I was extremely impressed by Dieminion's improvement in the Gouken matchup, I'm just not even sure how he'd develop anti-Gamerbee tech.

    Poongko > XiaoHai
    Honestly Poongko put himself into losers and already proved he can deal with high level Cammy. It's pretty much his match to lose. Don't really know enough about XiaoHai to be completely confident though.

    I think PR Balrog has a good shot at taking the whole thing (and I'd like him to) but my favorite to win it is probably Gamerbee. Before EVO started I wanted Xian from Singapore to win it but... yea...
  46. Bob199

    Bob199 Well-Known Member

    They were saying this is one of if not the only major SF tourneys ever to not have multiple Japanese players in the top 8.

    Agree with everything above.
    I can see Infiltration also taking it. He's been playing very strongly and considering if he can beat Daigo, he can take anyone else that would be left.
  47. Mililani

    Mililani Well-Known Member

    Apparently Daigo is only player to get top 8 in SFIV in every Evo it has been a part of.

    Seems like betting on Daigo making top 8 would have been a good bet.
  48. Lofobal

    Lofobal Well-Known Member

    As I remember it was originally listed as GG singles, not GG top8. Then they started streaming it 3 hours late and only top8. It doesn't really matter, though. Without Dogura, no one really stood a chance against Inoue.
  49. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Yea, I was worried about that... I hope MLG keeps KoF and I hope these guys come out for MLG because I really think BALA is the better player, he just chocked with Clark and then took too long to recover and find his groove again. ARGGGG I just lost like $100.
  50. Mililani

    Mililani Well-Known Member

    Or Bala is totally dependent on being able to see the opponent's hands?
    Scarbo likes this.

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