Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Xom, Aug 16, 2009.

  1. Xom

    Xom Patreon Supporter

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  2. Xom

    Xom Patreon Supporter

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  3. Xom

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  4. Xom

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  5. SW

    SW Active Member

    Slightly better than a random guess is progress, but not the end of the story.

    The battle between Quants and "randomness" remains. That said, quants may one day turn political science into a real one.

    Let hope for a good run, and good publications by the end of all this stuff.
  6. darkcrobat

    darkcrobat Member


    Mid 2010 now, do we know whether he was right?
  7. HateBot

    HateBot Member

    You know I think it's difficult to tell now exactly which way Iran is going. Internationally the conservatives have really appeared to be taking on the world in similar fashion to George Bush's administration.

    However, this is to be expected with the Ayatollah supporting the current president, and he controls the cabinet. So in that respect no.

    The most interesting dynamic proposed here is how they are dealing with internal strife, it appears as though moderates are starting to change the culture a little. The question becomes if this is enough to bubble into a change of the administration-I'm not an Iran expert so I don't know.

    But what we can say so far I think is that his game theory model has yet to be proven wrong or right. But it may end up being wrong because I personally thing is prediction is a couple years off.

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