https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=...e.Tversky-Hot-Hand-Basketball.pdf&chrome=true A Paper that basically try to see if players belief in hot streaks is true or false. The paper shows that ability of "regular" people as well as players to on average predict the incremental chance a player has to score based on previous immediate results. The paper succeds, yet I quote. "However, the outcomes of both field goal and free throw attempts were largely independent of the outcome of the previous attempt" Which is to my knowledge crazy claim or one that defies too much current knowledge. He later emphazise this idea when he says "The independence between successive shots...." He later says says"A major difference between the two process [The process of coin toss and trying to score in basketball] is that it is hard to think of a credible mechanism that would create a correlation between successive coin tosses, but there are many factors (e.g., Confidence, fatigue) that could produce positive dependence in basketball. The availability of plausible explanations may contribute to the erroneous belief that the probability of a hit is greater following a hit than following a miss." It's tables and experiments are based on small samples that do not show this lack of correlation or independence. There is no way that seeing those tables (where some players show from 13% increased score rate to -13% decrease in score rate) one can conclude there is no correlation. The idea that mental state or previous immediate results doesn't affect future performance goes against a lot of what has been learned in poker, where programs exist to find these patterns over millions of hands. Not only the whole concept is proved outside this study that there is correlation, but the study itself fails to show there is no correlation. Can somebody argue otherwise? This is a very very important study because if mental state has no effect whatsoever in performance of players, I'm sure that will interest A LOT to some people and should have profound impacts on how sports and games should be approached in competition.