Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by bbobjs, Mar 12, 2012.
yes :) we can get this thing going again!
Score. This makes me happy.
SWEET OK DAY WILL START IN 30 MINUTES... uh, I'll figure out other shit later.
OK I think everything that everyone needs is sent. I'll double check in a moment though. If you don't have something you think you should have post in your QT or PM me.
DAY 3 START:
No one died tonight.
Day will end in ~5 days, clock pending. Timer: http://www.timeanddate.com/counters...&day=09&year=2012&hour=1&min=59&sec=59&p0=179
LIVING PLAYERS (Red= Can't be Elected)
Mirdini (Post #1-244)→ Fortuna
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Ash (Post #1-541)→ CWheezy
NON-LIVING PLAYERS (Ordered by time of death then alphabetical)
Lungs (Post #1-803)→ Crilly
beruru (Post #1-311)→ Sirion
People were targeted.
They didn't die.
Not sure I want to say more than that just yet, if at all. Convince me otherwise if you must, but I want to think things over and how a couple things unfold.
And since I see Lungs was replaced, but not CWheezy. I have one thing to say:
POST OR DIE
You have 48 hours.
Oh, and don't get so caught up in CWheezy that we neglect the people that so assuredly deserve our attention. Kensington and Jwlk in particular.
First of all, phew, no one died last night.
Secondly, Lungs was replaced and not CWheezy?
My mind is blown.
Thirdly, I agree with Eidolonic. CWheezy should be given a 48 hour grace period to answer. Although with his activity in other threads in the forum, it's rather suspicious.
And welcome, Crilly aka ghost of Lungs.
Holy hell that is the best break we've had yet, and makes me believe in a SirionLC world even more.
Only thing left for me to say is:
I'll be back tomorrow.
Read my post more carefully, Prime.
Sirlin =/= LC Prime. :/ Eido just said people were targeted.
Unless you think it's a case of Eidoscum trying to cover it up?
I do want to know who the targets are at some point early on, since it's probably relevant to deciding who needs NG protection; however, in the absence of that (and depending on Prime/Decep shenanigans?), I feel like I am probably the next best option. Elect Ixta
Definitely would rather have ehrgeixNG than IxtaNG - elect ehrgeix.
I am still somewhat suspicious of Ixta.
I am town and don't want to die.
I will use knowledge well.
Thoughts on NKs:
I am glad deceptive died (sort of). It makes me feel a lot more comfortable with Prime as town and slots in a relatively solid town block somehow. (Still not totally sold on prime as town or anything, but more neutral than witchy). It also means I finally trust deceptive, which is pretty great.
Prime, Ixta, Eido: If Sirion was innocent, of the people voting to lynch him, who do you think would be most likely to be a witch? Obviously this would also put Kensington's refusal to lynch him in a different light, too -- how/would this change your read on Kens? This is an important question that I would like you to think very hard about.
(5/14) Sirion (Kai, Deceptive, Aerinon, Prime, Ixta, Ehrgeix)
(5/14) Kensington (Arkaal, Tea, Eidolonic, Jwlk, Sirion)
Arkaal switches to Lynch Sirion
Eido votes Lynch Sirion
Fortuna votes Lynch Sirion
Cwheezy does nothing.
Tea: Also important! Fortuna. Please read her like... last five posts and tell me what you think she is trying to achieve in them. I have some confidence in that you at least have meta-knowledge of her.
Things that I think are true right now:
Eidolonic is probably innocent.
Aerinon is probably innocent.
1-2 of Kai, jwlk, and Kens are probably witches. It is hard to know which.
1 of Ixta, Arkaal is probably a witch.
Tea, Kai, jwlk: What do you think of this post?
Er.... Deceptive didn't die. No one did. Both kills missed due to incorrect polarity.
Er, wtf. somehow I read deceptive died?
Well, that looks horrific. I guess I just saw his name in red or something and assumed he died? (I know yours is too, so that seems like a terrible excuse... but yeah).
Did you assume your kill attempt on Deceptive landed? Understandable mistake.
I know that's how it looks (terrible), but no, that is really not the case.
I felt bad about typing that as soon as I hit enter. But I can imagine the look on your face. Also, moves you a lot closer to Town 100 in my eyes.
To clarify: Deceptive was not targeted last night. I'm going to assume the Magneto coinflip on him was enough to deprive witches of potential information, so they chose to look elsewhere.
As to who 'was' targeted, I sort of wanted to see how the Elect races shaped up before revealing, but I suppose we might as well get the information (and effective townfirms) out there to work with.
Elect: Prime Intellect
Ixta was also targeted.
I totally hate you for that (quicktopic: "Well, that was a terrible thing to manage to post. I wonder if that gets me lynched."), but yeah. Ok!
I would like people to answer questions still.
Also, deceptive not getting killed (or targeted) makes me a whole lot more *unhappy* with decep*. I think I could actually be behind electing prime or Ixta (or me), though. Is it selfish to want a self-elect when you have two people who have actually been targeted? I guess it really is and we should make one of them NG. I think you two should compete via creating entertaining posters.
Oh, yeah, above exchange also townfirms Eido for me. I think he could have actually got me killed off that if he had so desired.
Oh, unless he is a witch who thinks I'm the LC and really Prime/Ixta/Him are all coven together or something. I think that is unlikely though.
Yeah. Town reads be increasing. This is a good thing.
That leaves us with 11 names to pick from for possible coven. Probably. I'd be happier with Deceptive if he'd been targeted, but I'm still pretty okay with him. Magneto flip as a deterrent worked out well enough, and I'll probably ask the Magneto to flip and choose between myself/Deceptive tonight. That pretty much guarantees an Ixta-death, though. Deceptive and I have polarity information that we can potentially use to our advantage, she doesn't... we'll see.
I still think Kensington is the most likely LC. I want him dead. I probably want him dead even if CWheezy doesn't pop up and talk, but... that's subject to change based on how annoying his lurking is today. Really didn't like the 'Whew, no one died' stuff just as day flips over, in addition to....everything the days prior. We've rehashed the points to death.
And for your question, who the most likely witch is out of: Kai, Deceptive, Aerinon, Prime, Ixta, Ehrgeix, Arkaal, Eidolonic, Fortuna?
Hm. One of Arkaal/Fortuna/Aerinon, I think. There's a lot of town reads on that Sirion train. Which is either a really good thing, or... worrying. Worrying as in I might have the whole gamestate wrong in my head. And if that's the case, I think we have to look pretty squarely right at Deceptive. It should be noted that I put the hammer down, and Fortuna put an excess vote up past majority, I suppose. Though I don't think it ultimately means much.
And as to how it changes my read on Kensington... I don't think it really does? I thought Kens was the most likely LC, and thought Sirion was possible Coven. Stands to reason that Kens could have seen the same signs the rest of us did, and been a little reluctant to switch the vote over.
Like totally Elect: Ehrgeix.
That exchange there reads to me like town-derp city. I don't think scum Ehrgeix would've made that mistake. It could've totally been a scumslip, but it went the other way. I'm not as trusting of Prime, as you are Eido. Yeah, like the LC kill isn't a townfirm (because lodestone can survive) but that's a pretty rare thing I bet. I think its +EV to have the targets out there. It's pretty minor info between coven and LC and good info for town. The polarities of said kills is what LC/Coven want more, so I think the targets are fine. You can withold them though. Catching Ehrgeix out as town was a nice bonus.
Also, if I were to pick scum on the Sirion train then Kai, Prime or Ixta would be my candidates. Arkaal switch seems null to me, seems equally likely play for him as town/scum. Fortuna, I don't know. I really like Fortuna's posts when he/she does post.
I can agree with this. Until then, I still want to Lynch Kensington. Post #806 didn't help.
I disagree with this line. I am not a witch, and I don't think Ixta is either (especially after she was targeted by a NK).
Huh. That was not what I was expecting. I guess I feel better about Prime now, though, which is nice.
Elect: Prime Intellect
I believe that this is the mostly likely world.
Er. Aerinon. I did give the kill targets. Prime and Ixta, both of who you are suspecting in that post. I got what I wanted out of withholding them, which was a reaction from someone that increased their likelihood of being town or scum to me.
Arkaal, Eido, can you tell me why you think Kens is the LC?
He went after: Wheezy, me, jwlk, supported Ixta and Darcy. He supported Lungs as town #678, but later said he said he had him as suspicious? #723 He found Aesa and AS scummy, but not Arkaal who started his lynch with meh reasons after Aesa magic-bagged it.
He tried starting a wagon on jwlk and Wheezy, with little success. In his first post today, he only mentioned Wheezy, but not jwlk or me.
I'm less sure about Aesa and Lungs, because I'm not sure what to think about that Lungs flip, but more sure about Arkaal. If you want to pressure all of us today, go ahead.
Also, Kens, I'm sorry, I didn't know Eido had the exclusive rights to ask questions in this thread. If you think me asking questions is a scumtell, then go back and look at D1, I had questions there too and you thought I was alright then. What's wrong with my questions? Was I hitting too close to home?
Hmm wow. I fail at reading. I going to go through Kensington posts; but I'm not sure he's the best lynch today because of Seamstress though. I retract statements about Prime for now, need to rethink my position on him in light of new information. I vaguely recall being okay with him D1, I'm not sure where that went.
I've explained, or tried to, a couple times, I think - but it's essentially a mix of 'scummy behaviour without a ton of real connections to anyone else', and 'trying to push LC role on people that haven't talked all game'. People like to talk about their role, and scum like to try and make other people look like their role. It's as good of a place as any to start the day, until CWheezy pops up.
I think jwlk is more likely to be scum than Kens.
Yeah, just finished review Kensington's posts (there's not a whole ton, ~27). And yeah, I'd have a hard time putting him in any coven. So, yeah, if he's scum, then he's probably LC. I would also like to hear from CWheezy though, and I probably agree that completely silent is just unnacceptable. Other possible scum: jwlk and Kai-, I think. For some reason, I'm not suspecting Arkaal as much after his well-timed switch to prevent a no lynch. Of course, he could be coven who knew that Sirion wasn't coven and it was no skin off his nose. I have to remember that possibility too.
@Eido: That's possible, problem is, we don't have a lot of content from the DLP people and they seem to be arguing in and out of the game, so it's all a giant mess to me. Two got replaced, one went quiet and the other two seem to pop up to point fingers before lynches get serious. That's just great.
Add Wheezy, Tea, Arkaal and me to that, one not saying a word, Tea pulling a vanishing act and two people with bad meta and conflicting theories, yea, question all of us today. A lot.
I thought Sirion was the LC because other than Kai and AS, who I have as most likely not co-aligned, he didn't have any connections and Kens' mirroring of Sirion's post + Wheezy vote seemed like he was trying to split the wagons and force a no-lynch. That seemed more like a Coven member trying to protect the LC to me. Obviously, I was wrong about Sirion's role, how sure are you about Kens being the LC? And who's in the Coven?
I'm willing to talk, so throw stuff my way, WH3 went into night mode, so I'll have more time for this. I'll answer tomorrow cause I have to get up for work in 6 hours.
And yes, the Seamstress is a thing. Doesn't mean we should let him off the hook.
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa what the fuck?
Elect Prime Intellect
No comment on the night's events other than there'll likely be another attempt on me tonight.
NG followed by Magneto flipping between me/Decep sets my mind at ease, though.
As for the Kens/jwlk debate, I can see both being scum?
But if only one of them is scum it's definitely Kens.
And I'm pretty confident that at least one of that pair IS scum.
The tentative case I can make against jwlk is as follows:
He says "Is killing a witch just to be revived day 3 an actual good plan for witches? I don't really see witches ever doing that." which is odd (and might be trying to bait out -ev answers?). Like I can't see any reason for a townie to ask that. Ever.
On top of that, his very next post has a lot of doubtcasting sent my way for "buddying Deceptive."
I do, however, think that Seamstress is very much a thing to be feared, and that we should be lynching Kens today.
Thanks Eido I can see how much I'm loved here.
Ehrg, how towny are you really feeling on Aerinon? I do not like his posts today at all. Fortuna, what do you think of Aerinon's posts?
Eido, your track record with your accusations against me is starting to get a little ridiculous. In every game you accuse me of being scum, yet I haven't been it once. Instead, the first game, you're the scum trying to get me lynched by the town. And the second game? Yeah, you were town, but when the scum calls you an honorary member and the mod names you Scum King, it's not exactly a compliment.
Does Eido contribute more than I do? Yes, he does. But I certainly would question his judgment and tactics.
Now, CWheezy has been active on the forum, yet hasn't posted in over a week. Furthermore, like his predecessor, Ash, CWheezy seems hesitant to play the role assigned to them. At this point I can reach no other conclusion, that he is scum.
My read on him is "null". I didn't list him between my townreads yesterday, I would be able to fit him in some Covens, but if you told me to build his Coven, I wouldn't know who to put in there.
If you're talking about him liking me, I already noticed it yesterday and only know about three possibilities:
1. he genuinely likes my posts and that's it,
2. he's a witch and thinks I'm one too,
3. he's a different role completely and is trying to tell me something.
No clue which one it is. I've been going in circles with those, I'll get back to you when I decide on that. :/
@Kens: Are you just trolling everyone now? Making a case against Eido based on meta... on D3?
Do this. If you think he's trying to frame you, do this. Pick at his posts and tactics (?), explain the inconsistencies in your posts and tell me what you think about Arkaal, Kai and aerinon.
Of course people should question my 'judgement and tactics'. You comparing a game with 20 inactive members following me like sheep to this makes me laugh.
Do something more useful than harp at the easiest target in the game (someone completely inactive and lurking). It reeks of frantically trying to divert attention from yourself. At this point, I think I want a complete readwall from you - a blurb to paragraph on every player in this game, with your thoughts on possible connections, and your read on them, scum - null - town.
I know life and work means you can't post quite as often as I do - but no reason not to make your posts actually count, either.
If you're having him do this I have a request for that.
Kens, if you put Eido as scum, explain this in great detail:
from post. #679 And add his Coven or reasons why he's the LC. And if you flip on anyone from your previous reads, I want reasons for that too, thx.
Well, since Fortuna decided to give a general reading on Aerinon rather than actually comment on his posts like I asked, I'll poke at this one myself.
I don't really like this post. Seamstress thing is definitely something to worry about, but we flat out said yesterday that Cwheezy would be going down, so if anyone was sewn, wouldn't it be him? I can see seamstress doing that to make us waste a lynch. :/ In retrospect, I should have waited until today to push that plan for just that reason. If anything, Kens would now be a preferable target. (Is Aerinon is protecting him for some reason?)
Kens seems to be intent upon digging himself a hole anyway, so I'd be ok with lynching him too, although going with that means all pressure on Cwheezy is off again, and I still feel like that whole situation is annoyingly ridiculous.
You are such a pleasure to play with. You asked about posts. I talked about posts. Phrasing is a thing. If you still want me to do that post, try asking again and without that tone.
I want to pressure cwheezy, I don't want to lynch kens right now. The ancient-tech router I replaced my bricked router with seems very broken, so posting from work right now then going to go buy a new router, hopefully I'll be online tonight.
I want jwlk to post about his thoughts on gamestate/reads (more than just "i want to lynch kens").
p.s., no meanhunt ok.
@Fortuna. It's number 1. I genuinely like your posts because you are scumhunting and you are one of my best town-reads without any mechanical confirmation. It's certainly not number 3. I can't disprove number 2 because that up for you to decide.
@Ixtaccihuatl. I had to review end of yesterday with Seamstress in mind. Yeah, you could make a better case for CWheezy being sewn over Kens. But then, Kens had a lot of vote (like 5?) yesterday and it split the vote yesterday between him and Sirion. So, putting myself in Seamstress shoes, I would be sewing Kens or CWheezy most likely. I'm actually fine lynching either of them at this point; they both have good things against them. If the rest of you think CWheezy is the more likely Seamstress target for today, then I can concede that.
Wow, quiet day...
I absolutely did not intend any tone, if you perceived one and were offended, I apologize. However, I respectfully disagree. I asked for post analysis because I am not liking what he said today, and you gave me, "He is null to me, and I don't know why he likes me." Granted, that references why I specifically asked you the question, but I was looking for something more.
Speaking of tone though, I'm not entirely happy with yours either. You gave me one post that was a freindly, reasonable, 'let's work this out' kind of thing, asking me about my problems with you. I responded, and you came back with something very terse and defensive. In addition, you made it sound like I was accusing you of things which I specifically was NOT accusing you of, namely the Archon thing, which I was merely using as a comparative example.
Now granted, you're probably just getting frustrated that I won't leave you alone, but it is part of the game, and I truly hope you're not taking it personally.
Good enough points on Kens stuff I suppose.
We're getting close to the end of our 48 hour threat on Cwheezy, so I'm going to throw this out here:
Active Lynch Cwheezy
I don't... think I like this post. Or Aerinon in general, hm. I'd be okay with lynching Kens over CWheezy, maybe? It's a lot of wine, but it was going to be a thing with an obvious target in Kens, and post or die ultimatum in place with CWheezy.
Added another town read to my list upon re-read, I think. I like Kai more now than I did, even if he hasn't posted much as of late. He needs to fix that.
Arkaal and Fortuna are the two people that I really have almost pure null reads on. Maybe I need another re-read focusing entirely on them, but I read 'I am not a witch' and I find myself nodding in agreement.
Arkaal is excellent at not being witchy.
So he is... he's excellent at being.... something.
Read over every one of his posts, and still don't have a good read on him. I have worlds where he's coven with Aerinon now, though. Hrm.
Kens: I really want you to be innocent because I think some things. I would really like you to explain why you did not want to lynch Sirion, though.
This would be great too.
Less towny now I know that you and Prime were kill targets. Surprised he is null on Arkaal. If I had to lynch him or Fortuna I might lynch him, which seems kind of weird.
re: Prime/Ixta both surviving - is the only way this happens if they are both innocent (or lodestone)? Like, they cannot be LC because they lived and if say, ixta was LC who redirected a NK it would show that person as being NK'd? Would prime try to get coven to posikill himself as lodestone? This is like the only really viable thing where they can be a witch, right?
Tea, Kai, jwlk, Deceptive and Kens are all people I would like to see more stuff from. I'm pretty sure I still have unanswered questions from d2 and should go through and check these but I don't have time to now.
Also someone is a jerk. You know who you are.
Lodestone shenanigans is only way someone can be a witch and not die, yeah, according to the results. If LC had been targeted... I think I'd know? Unless, for example...
Ixta is LC. Coven kill Ixta, she redirects it to someone else, and the kill fails. If the kill is sucessful, I think I'd know that Ixta was LC, but if it were unsuccessful, I don't think so?
It's a mechanical vagueness that I'm not 100% on.
But regardless, I think the LC is going to eat the Coven kill rather than redirect unless they are near certain the NG is scum? I could be mistaken.
If this is directed at me for the Deceptive shenanigans as NG, sorry about that. I admit to being (sunglasses) deceptive, but, yeah.
I was LC last game, and had planned a strategy for kill redirection that I never had to use. I was about to say what it was, and then realized that it's probably -ev to do so (even though I think it's pretty obvious). Suffice it to say, the situation that exists now would not be how it is if either prime or I was LC, since I'm sure anything I can come up with, Prime probably thought about ages ago. Lodestone could still be a thing though. Repeat Ehgr's question for general opinions:
It's possible that 'you' are the lodestone.
It's something Prime would do as the lodestone, maybe.
But I'm very comfortable saying he's not. And since it makes more sense to me for the coven to have done the Prime kill, you're both probably town.
I want Kens and CWheezy dead. But where my world gets muddy is the Fortuna/Arkaal/Aerinon group of people. I can very much see Arkaal and Aerinon in a coven together, or Fortuna in the coven. Probably not any other mix from that three.
And I'm starting to question Deceptive a little bit. Shenanigans and disappearances don't help.
So, get in here, Deceptive, and answer questions and talk, if you could.
Separate names with a comma.