Polarity Hunt 3

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by bbobjs, Mar 12, 2012.

  1. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    CWheezy-Sirion

    No posts from Cwheezy to analyze, except insert some of what arkaal said about seamstress things. Either dead or sewn to someone else, maybe Kens after all?

    Sirion... Reference post #698 for my initial attempt at finding sirion scum buddies. I had some trouble pinning down anything I thought was significant really.

    Here's a really lol Coven idea from the info in that post: Cwheezy/Sirion/Prime/Ehrgeix. As stated there, Ehrgeix initially ignores Sirion, then attacks him hardcore later. This could be a case of trying to let a scumbuddy slip under the radar, then bussing when it is apparent that he cannot. Despite the bussing, he does jump onto the Sirion train rather late. Prime did something similar; he ignored Sirion completely until I pointed out that he was doing so, and then out of nowhere said he thought he was LC and votes for him. Prime and Ehrgeix have also done some buddying things, re: "Prime does buddy up with Ehrgeix a bit, to which Ehrg backpedals quickly, but then proceeds to vote who Prime wants to vote."
    -This coven idea is probably unlikely, considering I have town reads on Prime and Ehrgeix right now. Esp since Prime, at least, was the recipient of a NK attempt. However, I'm mentioning it because I think both these people could fool me easily. Sirion DOES try to cast suspicion on Prime in post #742, so that would be another mark against this theory being the correct one. (In this post he throws suspicion at Kens and Jwlk as well, and it's a contributing factor to me thinking that Kens and Sirion probably aren't in the coven together, even though Kens didn't want to vote him when it was the obvious choice, which I thought was really weird.)

    An alternate idea could be Arkaal/Aerinon/Cwheezy/Sirion. Both Arkaal and Aerinon said they were ok with Sirion when most people weren't. Later, in post #706, Arkaal said again that Sirion wasn't that scummy and he'd rather lynch others, even though he'd still be ok with a Sirion lynch. This could be protective. Arkaal's voting was interesting, he switched to Sirion very close to the end of the day to help us prevent a no lynch. This could be a very towny move, or it could be a sneaky scum move because he knew it would look super towny and maybe town-firm him for some people. Arkaal did seem somewhat reluctant to lynch Cwheezy yesterday, and initially voted Kens, then said he'd support a jwlk lynch instead of Kens or Cwheezy due to seamstress things. Aerinon did just put arkaal into his coven ideas though, which I don't see coven people normally doing, except that he sort of dismissed his own theory right as he said it, so he might have viewed it as a harmless way to distance himself from Arkaal. I started checking to see what Arkaal and Aerinon say about each other, and realized that they don't address each other at all until Aerinon says something in post #430 refering AS to Arkaal's post saying he's busy with work things. They continue to ignore each other until I prod them to make comments in post # 645, to which Aerinon says Arkaal is 'suspicious, but given benefit of the doubt', and Arkaal says Aerinon is Null. In post #672, Arkaal says he thinks Cwheezy is Town, and interestingly, never finishes answering the rest of that particular question from Fortuna which also includes saying what he thinks about Sirion and Fortuna herself.

    I might be able to slot jwlk into this Coven instead of Arkaal. Sirion does buss him a bit throughout, but jwlk was also someone reluctant to vote cwheezy due to potential sewing. jwlk says this day 1: "I'm also thinking the people who got replaced are more likely to not be witches, especially Ashaya, but I wouldn't put any major stock in that. Lastly, Aeiron (sp, sorry) is on my town list, he's posted a lot, with information and content I don't really identify with a witch role. (The beginning when he was talking about NG)" (post #341)
    What I notice here is the "esp Ash" and directly after that, it's 'and aerinon is towny too!'
    Also, looking at a possible Jwlk-Sirion connection, it makes me read this post in a different light:
    I first took this as a 'sirion looks scummy' thing, but it could be possible coaching? Sirion does make a quick reply directly after and tries to fix what he said before.

    Back to Aerinon-jwlk:
    This is the same post (actually #341) in which jwlk says aerinon is towny, so I'm not too surprised he likes it.

    Closest thing I see to Aerinon being suspicious of jwlk is this:
    ...which isn't really that suspicious of jwlk at all.

    Sirion kind of echos this later in post #742
    This could be a thing where they are guiding each other, "let's all focus on this other scummy guy" type of deal, esp since Kens is an easy target right now, it's not too dangerous to be suspicious of him more than someone else. Jwlk keeps to this and sticks to voting Kensington rather than Sirion.

    And that's all I've got. (I spent way too much time on this.)
     
  2. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    @Ixta

    I liked that post. In fact, unless Deceptive shows up and is +Town to the degree he was on day one, I'm pretty content with Elect Ixta. Can't shake the uneasy feeling I have about Deceptive either... him not being targeted until the night after he was first mentioned as being slightly suspicious gives me intentional targeting lodestone vibes.

    There's some things that I don't agree with in there, notably the possibility of Prime/Ehrgeix coven - Prime is townfirmed in my book, and Ehrgeix is around 90%.

    I also agree that Kens and Sirion aren't in the coven together! Mostly because Kens is the LC!

    I loved the section on Arkaal and Aerinon, though. I have them linked in my notes for much the same reasons you outline - if one is coven, it's almost certain the other is. The Arkaal/Aerinon/Cwheezy/Sirion coven is probably the most likely one mentioned yet, but not the most likely overall, I don't think.

    Wanted to comment briefly on something you quoted Jwlk as saying, though - his 'especially Ash' comment is very much a meta thing with Ashaya. We're familiar with her, and she tends to be... more invested in games where she is scum. I don't think that statement is necessarily a scummy thing for Jwlk to say, as I think he honestly believed it at the time, at least. Doesn't mean he isn't scum, mind you - I'm just not going to hold that statement against him.

    I liked the ties between Aerinon and Jwlk though, I think? It makes an Arkaal/Aerinon/Jwlk/Sirion coven a possible thing? Hrm.

    Anyways, good post. Mirrored some of my own thoughts, and gave me another connection or two I hadn't fully considered.

    I'm glad you survived, after I (reluctantly) left you for dead.
     
  3. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Jwlk & Kensington: I especially want to hear you guys on hypothetical coven.

    Also, we've established that live players should feel free to ask questions to dead ones - dead town can hound them for answers.

    Patience is wearing thin - I want to reveal the stuff I know!!
     
  4. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    In interest of my own continued survival, I'd love an Elect Ixta.

    @ Eido
    Glad you liked it. Makes me think my thoughts might be on the right track. Although, like I said, Prime and Ehrgeix are also townreads of mine, and I think that is an unlikely option. However, both those players can be tricky, and I'd rather throw the idea out there and have it be collectively dismissed than dismiss it myself and maybe miss something. In Wh:TG2 I 100% thought Ehrg was town, and it turned out he was a jw, so now I'm eating humble pie. :p

    I don't think Arkaal and Jwlk are coven together, but maybe you can look at that and tell me what you think.
     
  5. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    It's a connection of links, of sorts, without anything standing out as absolutely preventing it from being a thing?

    Aerinon and Arkaal are linked, Aerinon and Jwlk are linked, and Arkaal being willing to lynch Jwlk instead of Kens or CWheezy when there's... no chance that was going to happen just reeks of possible distancing? I dunno, it's just a coven that makes a certain amount of sense to me at the moment, isn't set in stone.

    It's also possible that I haven't even come close to being on the right track with any of my thoughts. I mean, no one has voiced any suspicion of me whatsoever, really, and yet... I haven't been targeted at night yet. I feel all neglected and stuff. Not really, I like being alive. Don't take that as an invitation, coven.
     
  6. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    lol, well, I guess I'll take comfort in the fact that I must have hit one nail on the head somewhere along the line?
     
  7. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I'm really having trouble shaking this nagging feeling that Deceptive is the lodestone.

    Night One:
    LC - Aesa
    Coven - Archon

    Night Two:
    LC - Ixta
    Coven - Prime

    Night Three:
    LC - Ixta (Magneto flip, or outwined)
    Coven - Deceptive

    This gives the coven a consistent pattern of targeting strong players, so Deceptive following Archon and Prime on a night he was unlikely to be Magneto flip protected is a perfect storm to gain back the 'towncred' that had slipped away from him a tiny bit.

    I don't have any proof - just this vague sense of uneasiness, and unhappiness with how Deceptive has acted since day one. I understand RL and stuff has been smacking him around, but... eh.

    Thoughts?
     
  8. jwlk

    jwlk Member

    Wow, I got home and fell asleep -_-. Just woke up at 2 am, and am heading right back to sleep after I post this. Since we have another 3 days until deadline, does anyone mind if i answer Archon's question tomorrow after 3 o'clock (Pacific time) I would do it now, but i'm still half asleep and not really up to looking through posts and such. Anyway, i'll be back in around 12 hours..
     
  9. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Eidolonic frowns at Jwlk

    I'm impatient and want to hear the news Archon has to offer, though. But you aren't the only person holding up the proceedings, admittedly. I want to hear from you, Kens, Deceptive, and Tea in particular about potential covens and general gamestate. But bleh.
     
  10. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    He's not the only person holding things up by a long shot. Only four of us have done our parts so far, quite sad. I hope there is something more by the time I get home from work.
     
  11. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Would the fact that we mind change anything?

    This hit me as scummy, btw. Three days is <I>not</I> a long time with no solid trains started, and anyone who tries to lull us into complacency due to time remaining isn't helping us.
     
  12. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    And before anyone says anything, yes, I've been using HTML tags to communicate for the last month - I was dead. <wink>
     
  13. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    RULES UPDATE:
    Added HTML tags to make how voting works in non-topic areas clear. Sorry for the inconvenience.

    To be clear, originally Witch Chat's intro post said this:
    "Do not edit ANY posts. You don't need to post under your robe color pseudonym because I'll be editing those in the transcripts I send; however it's important to know these pseudonyms because I won't be editing the content of posts and thus you'll be expected to use them when addressing each other. If you accidentally say something you shouldn't have DON'T EDIT your post! Instead contact me in your Private QT and inform me of the mistake."

    And Dead Chat's intro post said this:
    "Welcome to Dead Chat! A new Dead Chat will be created when a player Dies, Revives or is Banished. Please only post under your user name, something similar enough to be obvious or your assigned pseudonym. If you discover a post made under your name but not by you, please inform me in your private QT. If a post is made under a false pseudonym, I will inform everyone with access to Dead Chat and perhaps take harsher action if necessary. Also, as is standard, don't edit any posts of any reason. All of these things are considered cheating. Any questions can be directed to me in your private QT."

    The intro post for all private QTs says this:
    "Welcome to PolarityHunt 3! Please use this for any abilities you may have, as well as questions/notes. Use html tags to <b>bold</b> your actions (e.g. <b.>Action: Target</b.> except without the '.' in them). Please do not share this link with anyone, regardless of whether they are in the game or not."

    Hopefully I'll be able to update these posts soon to make things clear to everyone in all areas of the game. If you have any questions use your private QT to ask me. This is information I intended to post at game start but neglected to as I was somewhat rushing just to get the game up and running ASAP. Sorry for any issues this may have caused.
     
  14. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    BBOBJS: Hands-on Mod
    Coming soon to a theatre near you
     
  15. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    Have been busy/distracted, answering AS's question before I read more stuff:

    Ehrgeix: Crilly (Lungs)-CWheezy hypothetical coven

    This is pretty hard because I have something like one post to draw from on Lungs.

    Lungs likes archon. Talks to Aer, Prime, Tea, wants to elect Deceptive. Light scumread on Ixta.

    If we assume he's a witch I'm going to say he wanted to talk to one witchbuddy in thread here. I'm going to say that's Tea. Decep votes to lynch him just after so that helps some (or is damage control, idk). I understand this is something of a tenuous link but I don't think Tea is innocent anyway, so. Sirion is reallly hedging on lynching Lungs and also seems generally suspicious so we'll say Sirion is the fourth witch here. Kens also under some suspicion for not lynching Sirion.

    Anyway. That is a lot of leaps/stretches to make things fit, but it's somewhat plausible and I think that fits the specificness of the question.

    Reading other stuff now.
     
  16. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    I can support an Elect Ixta, even if she seems intent on painting me as a witch. At least she is one of the few people actually participating that I don't want to lynch. I'd also be okay with Archon as NG.

    Hey, I was okay with lynching him the day before, too. And I'm still okay with lynching him!

    I find it increasingly difficult to disagree with your scenario. The more I think about it, the more sense it makes.
     
  17. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Chadmiller is the Vampire Slayer
     
  18. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Okay here are my thoughts on general gamestate: (Long post is going to be long...)

    People who have been targetted by witches:
    Archon, Aesa, Prime, Ixta, Deceptive

    Other town reads of mine:
    Ehrgeix, Eidolonic, Aerinon (*yes, I am biased here)

    The Dead:
    Lungs, Aesa, Sirion, CWheezy
    Out of this group, Aesa and Lungs are most likely town. It's probably to much to hope for 2 witches being dead, but it is possible so I'll assume 1-2 witches dead and we're still looking for 3-4 more. If Prime is telling the truth, then we haven't gotten LC yet.

    Possible scum list:
    Arkaal, Fortuna, Kensington, Tea, Kai-, jwlk

    Yeah, I'm good with this worldview for now. Double Ixta targetting is very telling. He's either a very lucky lodestone or so town it hurts. Archon I've been good with so far, he's not LC if Prime/Eido have told the truth. In fact, all once dead guys are cleared of being LC if we've got good night guards. Deceptive targetting is a happy thing for me, because I didn't want to doubt him yet based on his inactivity. Ehrgeix and Eidolonic as are based on reads so they could be revisted later, but I think that's not worth our time at this point. Most town that eligible for elect? Elect: Ixta I think is a good choice tonight.

    The Dead. As I said above most likely one of Sirion/Chweezy was probably a witch. It is possible that we haven't lynched one yet though... which brings me to the possible scum list:

    The rest. I'm okay really with lynching the whole lot, just to be sure we get the witches. Since there's like six of them in that list, we have to decide who to focus on first. Now, I think Fortuna is the least likely witch in this set so far, so I'd focus on one of the other five today. Kensington is popular, but perhaps too popular. But with the missed kills, we can probably afford to chance the seamstress. In other words, I think I made a mistake yesterday in bringing up possible seamstress targets, that just creates wine that we don't need. Seamstress should have a hard time guessing who we are going to lynch day to day. That's why I like to have a large pool of people to look at. If Kens is deemed still too dangerous to chance the seamstress, then I'd probably elect looking at Arkaal. He's starting to ring scum Arkaal to me. He hasn't done any scumhunting at all that I can recall.

    Archon, is there any reason we shouldn't start trying to lynch people? Like game changing info? It is like D4 and we haven't had a claim yet. (Which is both awesome but hard to get mechanical confirmation about anything.)

    Crazy alternate reality theory: I thought of this when Eidolonic brought up that no one been suspicious of him yet. If he was coven, then it'd be possible that both Prime and Ixta were coven with him. And our nightguards have been lying to us. Not to mention that Archon could be the LC. Yeah, all sorts of theory collapses. I'm not ready to move into that world yet. Well, we still have diode in this world, which I think is the best way to catch lying NGs. Though I suppose a dead LC cover up would be hard to catch in prime/eido scum world. Anyway, I don't think this is likely.
     
  19. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    Decep, Tea: why did you not vote for lungs?

    re: Aer crazyland. I think Eido would have tried to get me/got me killed if he was scum NG.

    Eidolonic said:
    I'm really having trouble shaking this nagging feeling that Deceptive is the lodestone.​
    Can you elaborate on this?

    Lynch Tea, btw.

    Kens jwlk Arkaal Kai also possible lynches I could back depending on arguments given.
     
  20. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    The more I say the less I can get out of people. That said, I can't encourage stalling tactics either.

    jwlk promised a post in about 2 hours. I recall no promises farther out, so I am just waiting on that. If any previous kill target asks me to unleash immediately, I will. Otherwise I'm waiting until I get home, 4-ish Eastern.

    Spoiler: I am going to request NG tonight.
     
  21. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Fell free to put lynch votes on whoever, in the mean time. Voting history is always +town.
     
  22. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    For Aesa, I'll just link you to this: #694, #853

    tl;dr - Those posts contain how and why I put him with Arkaal. I think the Aesa kill could be a Witch gambit and I saw a pattern in Arkaal's behavior from WH: TG2 when we were both Coven Witches. All of this gave me an idea about the composition of the Coven, that'd include someone that is in town reads. I also noticed how the thread went really quiet as I started to ask around about this and I got attacked for my questions, so I think I'm getting close to the Coven with the pair.

    You said to include CWheezy, so I will, Prime said there were two kills, so he's not the LC. It's hard to link him to anyone and we barely got a lynch that day, with people obviously being around but not doing anything, so I don't know how useful those votals are.

    So, I have Aesa/Arkaal/CWheezy? I'd put them as the Lodestone, Demon and Zombie respectively. Lodesa for the gambit, considering how no one wants Arkaal dead, I'd peg him as the Demon to keep around if someone claims and Wheebie, makes sense as he didn't talk in thread; unless he didn't bind anyone, he also doesn't fit the other two slots.

    I think the final member of this Coven would have to be someone that could get by with near no suspicion, so it could possibly be: you, Eido or Kai to fit my theory perfectly.

    AS/Aesa/Arkaal/CWheezy is possible, but implausible for its sheer craziness and in between Eido/Aesa/Arkaal/CWheezy and Kai/Aesa/Arkaal/CWheezy, I'd lean towards the latter; even if Eido was never under any suspicion and also the one to defend Arkaal, simply for the fact that no one but you and me asked about Kai in four Days and his D2 lynch still somehow went through even with him trubolurking till D3. As I had Sirion as the LC, I have no clue if we're getting somewhere with the lynches.

    Arkaal had Kai as suspicious in pair with Sirion and chose Coven!Sirion in the end and it can't be busing since the roles don't fit, so Sirion/Arkaal/Aesa/Wheezy doesn't fit with the gambit theory.

    It would fit if LC got Aesa for whatever unexplained reason, since that would randomize the roles, but someone would have to tell me what LC could possibly gain from targeting town!Aesa. Crazy theories?

    As for the LC, I fail at LC hunt hard. Eido says Kens is the LC, I don't argue with the fact that he's a Witch, but he seems more likely to be in the Coven. It's obviously someone that's alive now, minus you.

    If you asked me to swap Arkaal for someone, it'd do so reluctantly for someone out of the jwlk/Kens pair. Right now, I swapped Aesa for Kens, for his D2 posts and no explanations or readwalls in sight. Tea and aerinon are a harder fit, I can't build a Coven around either of them. It'd be a Prime-free Coven, but every Coven I build is like that, so yea.

    Also, I don't think Darcy is a Witch in any worlds, so don't ask me to build Covens around him. Same goes for Prime and Ixta. For the rest of the people, I can try to build something from D1, but it'd be just as reliable.

    I see it's finally an Elect: Ixta day.
    If we're not lynching Kens, I'm willing to go with Arkaal, jwlk or Kai. I'll be damned if there are not at least two or three Witches in there.
    Lynch: jwlk
    Since this is the second time you pulled this crap.

    Votals
    Tea 1 (Ehrgeix)
    jwlk 1 (Fortuna)

    NG Election
    Ixtaccihuatl 5 (Eidolonic, Ixtaccihuatl, Arkaal, aerinon, Fortuna)
     
  23. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Seven people. Pretty happy with this.
     
  24. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Hey I have a huge exam in 2 hours~ so just a heads up.

    Elect Ixta
    Lynch Tea

    I recall saying Tea was almost as good a townread as Deceptive was, but he's just been... gone.
    I saw another vote on Tea in my quick skim and can definitely support a lynch on him, especially since he has an almost 0% chance of being sewn.

    Now, some meta is that I know that his laptop was run over by a car recently (that I think corresponds with his posting dropoff). However, he's been active in every other game that I'm currently playing with him, so I can't see that as a valid reason anymore.
     
  25. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Still happy with Deceptive, btw, even after his superlurking.
     
  26. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Not beyond what Edio said in his post. I have simply been confused by Deceptive's play so far (Gain Towncred, go AFK), and Edio's explanation makes a great deal of sense to me.

    That's easy. LC didn't want to hit a "power player" who might be a coven witch, since it was N1 with no real info for him. That would be starting off of the wrong foot, putting witches a big step behind town. So he picks a middle-of-the-road target who is A) sure not to be killed by witches (so no wasted kills), and B) isn't a likely witch. Aesa fits perfectly.
     
  27. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    I just realized jwlk's 3pm is Pacific. Should I wait or unwrap now?
     
  28. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    Town!Aesa just boggles my mind, I did not get that impression from D1 posts or votes. As I recall, you didn't have him as your town read either, you said so D1. And you weren't on the Lungs wagon, so... yea.

    I'd be up for that, if not right now then soon-ish, like before I go to sleep (in two hours). I want to know if I've been derping around the whole time or not.
     
  29. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    I read him as doing scummy things, sure. If he hadn't died, I might have wanted to lynch him D2. What I don't find ridiculous is the idea that someone read him as "bumbling newbie", since that's the read I had on him for most of the day.

    It's certainly more than a shade less ridiculous than the idea of coven doing a self-murder on N1. The whole premise of a sacrifice is so ridiculously bad, I'm actually sort of offended that you'd include me in a coven capable of making that a play that poor.
     
  30. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    [quote="Fortuna, post: 184199, member: 19354"And you weren't on the Lungs wagon, so... yea.[/quote]

    I didn't for anything on D1. I usually don't, for meta-reasons.
     
  31. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    This kind of annoys me. The whole 'I'll lurk and be unhelpful while town so that it's easier to get away with it while scum' thing.

    But that's probably not incredibly related to this game. Probably.
     
  32. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Big post written, btw. Just waiting to send it in.
     
  33. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    You didn't have any problem with it in Sotekhunt?
    And this game has a revival mechanic, it's crazy, but possible.
     
  34. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    So, wham post!

    tl;dr
    CWheezy is a witch.
    Sirion is a witch.
    The zombie has the letter "e" in their name.

    Long version:
    At various times, dead chat has been significantly more active than live chat.
    Aesa has been quite involved. Crilly less so, but still active. Sirion was extremely quiet.
    The pseudonyms were quite silent. I think there were like three posts total, four* of which were votes. I'd rather not reveal their names, so I shall refer to them as "e" and "no-e", as only one has the letter "e" in their name.

    D3:
    Aesa started arguing the he should be revived. I went along, assuming it to be a bluff to steer possessions away from me. Apparently wasn't a bluff so much as a derp, but it worked: I was the target of a banish attempt.
    N3:
    I stepped in for revive.
    Then Aesa asked about any banish attempts...
    CWheezy voted* to revive himself, claimed to only eat babies occasionally, then trolled us with 3-4 additional posts throughout the night. I'm guessing witch.
    ...and bbobjs posted the banish (on me) he had apparently forgotten to.
    Aesa, then Crilly voted for Aesa, but after I explained, Crilly, then Aesa, then "e" voted for me.
    Then Sirion, I'm guessing, did the math and voted for CWheezy - and "e" jumped on board, for the tie.
    Except, remember how CWheezy's vote had a star next to it? He didn't bold it. I don't know why, but I assume "e" must have realized/asked bbobjs/asked about ties, and in the final post of the night (faction-neutral bastard modding!), bbobjs posted queued votes for me from both pseudonyms.
    Final counts:
    Archon 5 (Archon, Crilly, Aesa, "e", "no-e")
    CWheezy 1 (Sirion)
    No Vote 1 (CWheezy)


    Analysis:
    It seems crystal clear that both Sirion and CWheezy are witches. The failed banish confirms one witch between Aesa, Crilly, Sirion and me, and my not being possessed reduces the likelihood of two.
    I considered that "e" could have been Channeller baiting witch votes, but by the time he did it, all the witches that were going to be on CWheezy already were, so I'm saying definite zombie.
    No idea what Seamstress is doing, but I'm starting to think it's Kens - little else makes sense.

    The accused, if claiming innocence, should definitely explain in dead chat.

    Anyone who hasn't presented a coven: work with Sirion and CWheezy instead.

    Elect Archon Shiva
    Better if people simply jump on, but I can justify if you guys hesitate.
     
  35. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    I was a publicly outed witch being sacrificed as a long-shot gambit to counter an exploit that gave town an auto-win strategy. We also got two protection-piercing kills for our trouble.

    Sure, a self-kill isn't the worst plan ever conceived. I've even talked about doing it before. Probably not N1, though, and definately not on a person with Zero chance of a town-driven revival. The point isn't to get an extra banish, it's to create a false "townfirm" on a witch. Like, if you were suggesting that Archon was a self-murdering witch, then it would actually make some sense. But in no world does the Aesa selfkill make sense, because the only way he is getting that revive is if witches continue to fail all NKs for days on end.
     
  36. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Likelihood that one of the dead witches is Zombie?
     
  37. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Then Aesa asked about any banish attempts...
    CWheezy voted* to revive himself, claimed to only eat babies occasionally, then trolled us with 3-4 additional posts throughout the night. I'm guessing witch.
    ...and bbobjs posted the banish (on me) he had apparently forgotten to.

    This could lend credence to Fortuna's theory that either Aesa was killed by coven to get a banisher in there, or that one possibility I'd floated around that Aesa was coven hit by the LC?
     
  38. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Also, all kinds of 'wat' at CWheezy actually talking in deadchat.
     
  39. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Interesting. I feel less bad about the AFKlynch, then. I have sorta been running with the Crilly-as-coven thing, but it sounds more like Lungs was just derping, and not actually a witch. That means I need to re-evaluate my worldview.
     
  40. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Hmm. I don't quite get it. There should be in no way be a tie? I.e. Channeler+Aesa+Crilly+Archon =4 Zombie+Sirion+CWheezy=3? I figure something is missing in the story there.

    Regardless, Sirion voting for CWheezy does reek of coven-mates. And "e" voting for CWheezy indicates the same. The channlr/zombiE distinction seems a fair conclusion. (See what I did there?)
     
  41. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Townfirms Kai to me for the most part. He already was a strong town read for a couple reasons, but yeah. He pushed hard to get that Sirion lynch going.

    Sirion and CWheezy both witches... makes Kens an even more likely LC to me? I dunno. I keep harping on that, I know, but I just can't see him as coven I don't think, but mannn he's scummy. He voted CWheezy to keep from voting on the Sirion lynch train, and he's actually been the most insistent killer of CWheezy.. which would make a ton of sense, if, y'know, CWheezy was sewn? But, he wasn't. We're probably looking at a living seamstress then with Kens all but permasewn. Arkaal? Aerinon? Jwlk? Fortuna? Tea?
     
  42. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Yeah, I kinda skimmed on details here. "no-e" hadn't posted in a week and it was ten minutes to (announced) deadline when "e" changed his vote. Tie was a very real possibility, and it was way late for baiting.

    Actual deadline (and final votes) were posted over an hour later, so "e" conceivably didn't QT his switching back right away.
     
  43. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Eidolonic; hypothetical:
    Kens/CWheezy(and Sirion) in coven together. Kens seamstress, who would you have sewn D3?
     
  44. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    CWheezy without a doubt, especially after we issued an ultimatum the day before.

    It's why I don't think Kens as Seamstress is all that viable.
     
  45. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    I told you I'm not crazy (or a complete derp)!

    Archon, if you think Sirion is a Witch and Aesa actual derp town then I need to revamp my theory. Cause what I have right now doesn't fit for Coven roles. You said Lungs/Crilly was quite active, any clues about his alignment?

    Wheezy= Zombie stays as it is, Sirion gets Lodestone/Demon and lf for the Seamstress, LC and the last possibly alive Witch.

    Also, if Sirion is a Witch, then I have to apologize to Kai. He was the last person I expected to flip town, well, almost last.
     
  46. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Eidolonic: Kens was a likely enough lynch for D3 - sewing CWheezy would have been awful. Now, name ONE other world where CWheezy isn't sewn. townWheezy, LCWheezy, I don't see it!

    Fortuna: Mostly, the possibility of three dead witches just doesn't fit the evidence in general. Therefore, town. More on that later, remind me.
     
  47. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Jwlk/Arkaal/Aerinon/Fortuna seamstress sewing LC Kens instead of CWheezy? I dunno.

    Only one real way to find out, anyways.

    Lynch: Kensington
     
  48. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Or Tea. Can't forget Tea in that list along with Jwlk/Arkaal/Aerinon/Fortuna.
     
  49. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    We probably have enough missed kills to afford it.
     
  50. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Yeah. I'm tunneling on 'Kens as LC', and I probably shouldn't. So I'm willing to lynch him and get us information, even if it bounces.
     

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