Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by bbobjs, Mar 12, 2012.
ninja'd by things again.
How is Eido scum now Aloop?
Previous post was for Ehrg.
Ixta: I gave you accurate answers. Precise answers. Don't get sour because I answered the question you asked, not the question you didn't ask.
Nothing is directly contradictory, sorry - it just appeared so, I tried to explain in the situation-from-my-PoV. Basically the "prime is LC, lynch" into "uh, but ehrg is totally not town-firmed at all!" when Arkaal explained I was killed. I understand it's technically plausible for me to be lodestone, but like... you should reread my posts if you really think that's at all likely.
Ixta: you missed the third world, which is where both of them are scum.
As for scum!King Eido, it refers to a game of Witchhunt we played together. His court killed the Priest/Nun/spy!Judge. Game was called on day 4 due to Coven pwning town.
There is a third world.
Where Arkaal tried to frame Prime as being the Loose Cannon (and Ehrgeix was not actually targeted), but... Prime ended up actually being the Loose Cannon, and didn't lie about the targets. This is the hilarious one that is the reason I'm not 100% comfortable with reviving Arkaal.
It's more likely that Arkaal actually /was/ the Diode, but I still didn't like his reveal, or anything he said.
Including the fact that Arkaal made a post saying that we were lynching Aerinon, and that was all he was going to say about it. Who ended up dying along with Arkaal.
It's probably Prime trying to frame Arkaal as seamstress, but if the possibilities of worlds exist, we shouldn't dismiss them.
Basically, we either lynched the Diode + the LC in the last two days, or the Seamstress and the LC in the last two days, and the fact that there's a possibility for the latter makes me want to keep dead people (except maybe Archon) firmly dead.
Get out of my head you damn ninja.
It's my standard jibe against him. He's got horrible luck as the King in WitchHunts.
I'm pretty sure my posting is generally more +ev than yours -- it feels like the only reason you're still alive is trading off Deceptive townfeel into him replacing, but like... if Prime really is LC, you weren't even NKd. I really do think you're very probably town, but I don't think you are helping things very much.
Why would you not believe Arkaal? And, even if you dislike some of my posts: look at the actions I have taken.
Eh. It's a hilarious world. As for dead people, well, anyone who gets revived is basically an auto-lynch due to the like hood of scum or possession by scum.
Oh, and how do you know I wasn't NKd? Prime claimed Me/Ixta. Were neither of us targeted? Was one of us? How do you know which one?
I don't believe Arkaal because he could very well be scum, and Prime could be gambiting town that got caught.
Kai, for someone who jumped in and accused me of being a witch rather quickly, you've backed off and gone very quiet. Nothing to add, beyond "die, Aloop, die?"
Ixta was hit the night before, so I assumed you were the lie there -- like, maybe Prime thought Decep was a secret witch. I don't know for sure though, and I think Kai/Cosmic/Fortuna/jwlk are more likely to be witches than you, but your posting style + that made me think twice.
Anyway, fwiw here're my thoughts on people now:
Ixta - 95%+ (NKd)
Eidolonic - 95%+
TO LOOK AT:
Aloop [replaced Deceptive] - Likely innocent, but likely NKd if Prime was LC - Prime said he was NKd, which means Prime really thinks Deceptive was a witch?
Fortuna [replaced Mirdini] - Likely innocent (but would still like someone to do a post-content-analysis on her)
jwlk - Likely innocent since Kens was probably witch? If we're in the wrong world he could be a witch.
Kai - Likely innocent if sirion witch and eido town. Has very few posts/actions, though - plausible witch.
Cosmic [replaced A Killer Cuppa Tea] - witch?
Prime Intellect - 95%+ LC, getting lynched
Archon Shiva [killed by lc or witches] - 95%+ innocent (NKd)
aerinon [killed by lc-redirect] - 95%+ innocent (NKd)
Aesa [killed by lc or witches] - 90%+
Lungs [lynched] - 80%+
Kensington [lynched] - witch?
Cwheezy [replaced ash, lynched] - likely witch
Arkaal [lynched] - likely witch
Sirion [lynched] - likely witch
You know what... I want some analysis from people. Let's just go into a slightly crazy world and wonder if maybe it's Aloop who is the crazy lying scum. As pointed out, if Prime was lying, then Deceptive was never actually targeted. How do things work out in this world?
Yes, please do.
This should be good.
Aloop doesn't instantly reveal prime as LC if he is scum. It... doesn't really work, despite him seeming *so* scummy at times. I should probably not really even have him in my "TO LOOK AT" tier, it's just an interesting thing in really crazy worlds where he's lodestone or something and gambits that he'll be 100% trusted town after prime dies.
Like I think that's really the only way it would make any sense, and it's just way less likely than Kai/Cosmic being scum. (or fortuna/jwlk, in weirder worlds)
Oh, some notes out of date above -- arkaal not likely witch, of course. Will update/repost before day ends just in case.
He didn't "instantly" reveal Prime as scum though, he waited quite a bit before saying anything, and only under pressure. Eido is the one who first claimed Prime was lying about his role, then Aloop chipped in after. But it doesn't make sense for coven to target LC-Prime AGAIN though. Not at all. What if it's scumkaal, and town-Prime who lied about his specific role in order to dodge banishments? And Aloop-scum decided to throw in a little something extra to make sure he goes down? Or maybe Aloop just decided it's time to bus the LC, since he's going down anyway.
Fortuna and Jwlk are much more likely witches than Cosmic, and if Kai is a witch, I'll eat my hat. /You/ are a more likely witch than the two people you keep harping on, which is understandably suspicious.
I'd rank the livelist in order of witchiness something like this:
Prime >>> Fortuna >> Jwlk = Ehrgeix >> Cosmic > Ixta > Aloop >> Kai >>> Eidolonic
I'm not going to outright claim all the Reasons, because I'd at least like there to be /some/ doubt as to what I am, after I'm killed and they try to banish me.
And, Ixta! It's possible that Prime is gambitting town that fakeclaimed a town role knowing it would mean we wasted a lynch today! I don't think so, but in that case, I'm okay with lynching him regardless. And keeping him and Arkaal dead.
And you are right, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for the coven to spam target Prime. Unless they didn't actually know he was the Loose Cannon, and Arkaal tried to frame him for it. Only for it to end up being the case. There were a lot of things witches did in this game that make no sense on the surface, and I look forwards to post-game, and figuring out what exactly was going on. But, we can't worry about post-game just yet. We still have at least one coven alive, and the LC alive (for now).
There will assuredly be multiple people revived tonight, unfortunately, so we'll have to waste some time getting them re-dead. Anyone that isn't Archon that gets revived is probably going to be re-lynched to be safe, but deadchat infodumps will be nice!
First part is directed at Ehrgeix, Ixtaninja.
Ixta: instantly jumping on Prime would have been very -EV. You shouldn't need someone to spell that out for you.
I'm still good with killing Prime as well. The lie does not incline me to save him, even with other possibilities floating around. But the idea that the coven would waste 3 kills on the LC is mind boggling, and this gives me issues with Aloop. Even if they thought prime was innocent still, why kill him again and take the chance of town firming him when Arkaal was successful at creating suspicion? They didn't know he'd do some obvious fake claim. Maybe there was something weird going on, but it still doesn't follow. Look at the other two times Prime has been targeted, he's been very careful as LC not to do any obvious redirects, even at the expense of witches not getting any kills repeatedly. Why would he suddenly do an obvious redirect on this night? Unless it really was Seamstress Arkaal, and he randomly decided NOT to take down one of the 90%+ town people? And I have a hard time thinking arkaal wouldn't have sewn earlier as well...
Actually, no. I don't see why you coming out early and saying "Prime and Archon were the NK targets, Aerinon died to sewing or redirection" would be -ev.
Uh, big promised info-dump from the person I thought was the LC? Why wouldn't I want to wait and see what he tried? If I came out right away with the info, he'd WINE everything up, and we'd get absolutely nowhere. Waiting got me the fake claim, and if I hadn't had three people break the Garcia Rule, we might have gotten more from him.
Kinda obvious +EV for waiting, I don't know why you're not seeing it unless...
Good enough point I suppose. But he had to know you'd reveal eventually, so he would have had some kind of wine story ready to go anyway... @_@ The fact that he doesn't have a better story going on here seems so weird as well. I mean, if I can come up with some good reasons for him to be lying NG, or fake claiming town, he should be able to. Instead his "big reveal" was "I checked some people", and then he disappears...
Eh, could be a gambit, but we have to do it, simply because of the mechanical probability.
If Prime is LC, Arkaal is Diode or Seamstress.
If Prime is not LC, Arkaal is Seamstress.
Worth lynching Prime to confirm, even if he hadn't lied about his role.
Is it worth asking for an info reveal prior to killing him? If he is actually not neutral, then he's not the LC, which means Arkaal is definitely Seamstress, and there's no way he'd bus a fellow coven the way he did even if you want to make the argument that Prime could be Lodestone.
Prime is neutral.
People demanding claims and reveals to confirm things is moderately frustrating. Banishes exist. I've all but confirmed myself and will be banished upon death, but it's worth it I guess to get people dead that need to be dead - as long as we keep enough people un-banished to control revives.
Sorry Eido But on the bright side, we know we're killing the LC for sure, and you're protected tonight, and you can't get banished until night 9 at the earliest, and this game could be done by then.
Eido - LC is going to be dead (I assume), and you're very likely going to get banished as the role that you are. I think you've left very little doubt about... anything, really, and I think that tomorrow claims might make sense, especially if you're sure about kai/cosmic. I guess at this point I feel like we just want to active lynch Prime and move on to the next day, though.
sure, why not.
Active Lynch Prime
I'd like to see something, anything substantial from Kai, jwlk, and Cosmic. Once that happens, I could go for the active lynch.
I'd like to see cosmic post at all.
He should tonight at some point... his weekend evenings are supposed to be free.
Still unhappy with the way aloop handled things, but whatever. Willing to take eidolonic's word on his townyness for now.
I have yet to see you contribute anything to this discussion, so do something useful or just follow along for the ride.
Still waiting for jwlk and Cosmic to say anything at all.
Hey just got in from being away from my laptop all day long. Huge post to come.
That must be one long post.
This post was originally way larger, but after rereading it, the large majority of it was -ev and would probably hurt us in the long run, and even though I don't think we can lose at this point, I'd rather not be blamed for an amazing witch comeback.
Given the current gamestate, there's not really any need for me to do anything. The best I can do is go down and give support for certain people.
Anyways here's a couple things to consider:
Point 1) I really am town. I'm sorry if you still think otherwise, and there's not much I can do at this point to convince you while still playing to win.
Point 2) I think the real LC is going to stop killing tonight. I was also considering removing this but I doubt anyone alive is bad enough to not already know this. After all the work coven put into framing me (and after all the fumbling about I did :V) the LC isn't going to townfirm me 100% overnight.
Point 3) There are three main things I think I need to get out into the open:
A)Aloop is not scum. 100% fullstop end of story. Do not even waste your time looking at him because seriously. And while I agree his attitude is incredibly shitty, that doesn't make him scum and those of you who were doubtcasting on him even slightly for it are all the scummier.B)I am also pretty sure Eido is town purely based on how he's played all game. I know he thinks he knows that I'm LC, but there's a lot of stuff that you are unaware of in the current gamestate, Eido. Pointless to say anything further about that since we're already winning /so/ /hard/. Like if there's anything for me to reveal, it's that we are golden and you guys are almost spot on. Also, elect Eidolonic.C)The ONLY way Ehrgeix is scum is if he is the Lodestone. I am saying that he has a polarity. This is why my opinion of him shot up after night 1. Aside from then-Deceptive, he was my first solid townread. I feel this is not -ev to say because no matter what worldview you believe in, this is true. I know this myself (and I'm saying this now), and Arkaal also said as much.
Also, Ixta is 100% confirmed town. I was fearful of Lodestone/LC shenanigans at first, but this is not the world we are in. Do not waste time on Ixta.
To copy Eido a bit, here's the actual level of witchiness in current alive people:
Fortuna > Jwlk > Cosmic > Kai > Ehrgeix = Eidolonic > Aloop > Ixta
It's been a lot of fun playing with everyone and I hope that you guys take what I say to heart and don't just dismiss it. Also sorry if I fucked up somewhere and revealed something shitty. I'm operating off of almost no sleep after a crazy weekend. Although honestly I doubt there's much any of us can do to lose the game at this point? Revivals every three nights means we win even if graveyard situation is super shitty. I think I math'd it out correctly, at least.
Lynch Prime Intellect
On another note I think this is like the first time I've ever been successfully lynched? Other than teafia in which I was a pimp and actively tried to get lynched.
I'm going to assume either eido fucked up or prime is trying to get people to pay attention to aloop/ixta/eido/i, or something.
This makes me pretty sure prime is real LC, though.
Reverse psychology to make us suspicious of each other? Saying don't waste time so that we do? It almost works... He has been very fond of Aloop and Ehrgeix all game. I still think Ehrgeix is towny though, and as for Aloop... There's a possibility that it's more about his abrasive manner throwing me off than anything else. (Apologies, but it's true.)
Still no Jwlk or Cosmic though.
Basically, in case it isn't obvious at this point.
Prime is the loose cannon. And yeah, I agree, Prime, the LC is probably going to stop killing tonight, too! What a coincidence. I know this because Reasons. Those reasons confirm Prime as Neutral, and his survival of kills means he is one of two things. Golem, or...the Loose Cannon. And no, the Golem should not claim to confirm. The second the word 'dump' left his fingers, the lynch today was getting rammed down his throat. Forcibly. And with great glee.
But, guys. You do realize that this means that the coven targeted Prime three times? Yeah, let that sink in. The coven shot at their own witchbuddy 3 times in 5 nights. That's a lot of kills to spend on your own teammate. I mean, this game is far from over, but I think I'm allowed to be a little entertained by that.
So... plans. We're still lynching Prime, we're still electing me, and we're... probably going to send whoever gets revived back to the grave? Will depend what they have to say and stuff. And possessions are a thing, of course. I'd imagine they'll be exerting their force of numbers to banish the hell out of things, unfortunately. I hope most of you have managed to keep it in your pants and aren't banish-bait. I'm the only person that has.... pretty much outright claimed, and I can't be banished until night 9. So, there's that.
This cuts the kills per night down to one, and we probably only have 1-2 witches remaining. Something like Fortuna > Jwlk > Ehrgeix would be my preference at this point (Combination of Reasons and reads), but it might be worth having people dump some info tomorrow.
Hmm, sounds like a fine plan to me. I'm curious if you have Reasons not to be suspicious of Cosmic, but maybe that can wait until tomorrow.
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