Polarity Hunt 3

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by bbobjs, Mar 12, 2012.

  1. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    We actually might be!

    Think about that

    :cool:
     
  2. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    Good morning!

    Active Lynch Prime Intellect
    Elect Fortuna

    (Running late for work, looks like my question got garcia'd anyway. You probably should have waited until tomorrow for that, Eido.)
     
  3. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Uhh.

    Considering they missed me last night and the Magneto is long dead... waiting til tomorrow wasn't gonna happen, heh.

    I'm dead tonight.
     
  4. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I did a bit of a re-read, and bluh. I'd say I'm 70% sure on Jwlk, with 30% niggling Ixta-doubt. Like... I really liked that day one lynch wagon, but Lungs is the most obvious turbo-bus target on the planet. Which I'm sure Ruru had in mind from her first post.

    I got... what's the word... coasting vibes from Ixta as the game went on. Which isn't a strong scum tell, as I can see a golem that has already been shot doing that as well. Was a lot harder to analyze days past the first two, since, well. We lynched scum the first two days, and there wasn't as much interaction to be had. We were all attacking town, since it's basically all that was left.

    I'm dead tonight.

    So, good luck, town.

    Has been fun, no matter how things shake out. (But yeah, if you're a witch, Ixta, I tip my hat to you, and to Prime, for making it all happen by shooting you in the face. Repeatedly)

    Make sure everyone fully discusses both worlds - Jwlk witch and Ixta witch, tomorrow. I made a couple posts up above that fully convey all of my thoughts, and I'm the only person that'll be dead.

    Active Lynch: Prime Intellect

    Don't hammer that until Fortuna can chime in, though. I really don't expect a match, but uh. Lodestone Ixta taking Prime's SHE'S POSITIVE POLARITY, GUYS as a hint is a possibility!
     
  5. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Oh! And, town can still win if you mislynch day nine, I think. It's a very low percentage thing, but it's mathematically possible. And relies on some luck.

    But, uh. Try not to mislynch.

    The logic: I'm relatively sure there's only been one banish, and that's Arkaal. It's /possible/ Archon is a goner, too, though, since they could narrow him down pretty well.

    So uh.

    If we lynch Prime, I'm killed tonight, and we lynch Jwlk tomorrow... and then night nine the magneto succeeds in making Ixta miss... and the dead witches.... whiff with 2 of their 3 banishes... then Town wins? uhhh.

    Yeah, don't rely on that.

    If anyone feels like they are more certain about Ixta than Jwlk, make your case, either today, or tomorrow.

    All I have are opinions and reads - and I'm notoriously horrible at Mafia without concrete information to figure out worlds. (And even then, I'm pretty bad. This game proves that, heh)
     
  6. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    (Still laughing at them missing me last night, even if I'm almost positive it was a deliberate miss by Jwlk)

    I have nothing left to dump, and nothing left to say. My role is 100% obvious, and I'll be banished, if a mislynch occurs. I mean... I had a Neutral on Prime. And they whiffed with their North guess. To whover the fuck North was, nice work, yo, and sorry I didn't re-shuffle the lists as game went on. Was all 'oh god, they'll suspect me and banish me' at the time, and... yeah.

    :cool:
     
  7. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    I did check Ixta, yes, tell me when you want the result.

    Lazy Votals: with 8 alive, it takes 5 active votes to hard lynch
    Lynch: Prime Intellect 4: 2*|2 (Kai-,Eidolonic*, Ixta*, Fortuna)
    NG Elections: Fortuna 4 (Kai-, Eidolonic, Ixtaccihuatl, Fortuna)

    Elect: Fortuna

    Lynch: Prime Intellect
     
  8. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Go ahead. I mean. I can't imagine it's going to be a match. But it'd be nice if so.
     
  9. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    Yea, got a No Match again.
     
  10. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Bummer. I unfortunately never was able to conclusively pin down Ixta to neutral or negative with my own results. My fault for not just announcing who the two targets should be in the thread, but... I wanted to leave some doubt, heh.
     
  11. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    You can still be minus, you know.
    So it's between two roles and you claim one.... Hmm.
    Let the wine games begin.

    Also, obviously minus kill Eido tonight, witches.
    Other than that, I'll see the rest of you in deadchat.
     
  12. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Night after next + kill Fortuna then the next night + kill mishie.
     
  13. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Does anyone actually want this day to drag out until Monday? If so tell me in your QT, otherwise I'd like to get a jump start on night.
     
  14. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Active lynch myself etc etc.
     
  15. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Sure, Prime. I knew you were neutral because I'm secretly the compass bearer with a negative polarity. You caught me!
     
  16. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    And... I have no real issues with speeding this day up drastically. I want everyone left to give a full, detailed case on Jwlk vs. Ixta tomorrow before pushing out the lynch, though. The first two days (skipping all the Plan N stuff) in particular, looking at Jwlk and Ixta's interactions with the confirmed witches - Lungs, Kens, Ruru/Sirion.
     
  17. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    No objections to speeding things up here, as my active lynch vote should show. Everyone go active, the show happens tomorrow. :) My posting speaks for itself, so I have no worries on that score.
     
  18. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Yeah, well. Paranoia happens.

    But man, if Jwlk truly is the last scum, how anticlimactic is this game? We basically had four scum pegged day one. And executed Plan N almost perfectly... and we probably /would/ have lynched a neutral every day if CWheezy had posted.
     
  19. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    Mmm, I'd say it went well too, but we probably wouldn't be feeling the same way if they hadn't missed so many kills.
     
  20. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Well. It evens out? Since it means they can spring double revives on us like they did in late game, with town not having majority in deadchat. But, we can leave mechanic/balancing discussion for post-game, I suppose.
     
  21. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Double revive can only happen once.
     
  22. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    We'll try to banish Magneto night 9, so please hit Fortuna with a + kill 100%. No wining please.
     
  23. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    Hi, can you guys explain like I'm 5 and particularly slow?

    I believe all of these are correct:

    Fortuna checked Ixta
    Ixta is claiming to be positive Golem
    Fortuna is Plus

    Fortuna got back NO MATCH

    Ixta is a lying witch?

    ??

    Why are we carrying on like business as usual?
     
  24. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Ixta never claimed to be a positive golem.

    Prime is the one that has repeatedly stated her polarity.

    I was NG night two, and can confirm she was shot with a negative polarity.

    If she is the golem, what polarity would she select?
     
  25. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    ... is that right?
     
  26. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I can't confirm if she's 100% neutral, and I can't confirm if she's 100% negative.

    Fortuna confirmed she's not Positive, so she's one of those two.
     
  27. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    well somebody sure dropped the ball
     
  28. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    I thought she had to be a Neutral, since Prime claimed she was positive D6.
    But then, inconclusive results happened.
    And Ixta magic-bagged it yesterday, so... hmm.
    What do you think? Do we trust D6 Prime or D8 Prime?
     
  29. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I think trusting any kind of Prime is a terrible idea, in all honesty.
     
  30. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    i hate everyone

    active lynch prime
     
  31. Fortuna

    Fortuna Member

    Right. I wanted to hear from Kai and I did, so...

    Active lynch: Prime Intellect
     
  32. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    And.. that's a hammer, I think.

    Good luck!
     
  33. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Woot, hammer time! (I think)

    NIGHT 8 START:
    Prime Intellect has been lynched and died!
    Fortuna has been elected!

    Night will end in slightly under 4 days, Monday May 21 at 23:00 (11PM) PDT.
    Timer: http://www.timeanddate.com/counters...day=21&year=2012&hour=23&min=00&sec=00&p0=179

    (Yea that's right, I did that, so what?)

    LIVING PLAYERS (Red= Cooldown Pink= NG, Cyan= Revived)
    1. Mirdini (Post #1-244)→ Fortuna
    2. A Killer Cuppa Tea (Post #1-1059)→ Cosmic (Post #1059-1573)→ mishie
    3. Kai-
    4. Ixtaccihuatl
    5. jwlk
    6. Eidolonic
    NON-LIVING PLAYERS (Ordered by time of death then alphabetical)
    1. D1: Lungs (Post #1-803)→ Crilly
    2. N1: Aesa
    3. D3: Ash (Post #1-541)→ CWheezy
    4. D4: Kensington (Post #1-1573)→ LegendaryQ
    5. D5: Arkaal
    6. N5: aerinon
    7. N5: Archon Shiva
    8. N6: Ehrgeix
    9. D7: beruru (Post #1-311)→ Sirion
    10. N7: Deceptive (Post #1-1059)→ Aloop
    11. D8: Prime Intellect
     
  34. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    BtW, I'll be ending night early if all actions are in.
     
  35. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    DAY 9 START:
    Eidolonic died.

    Day will end in... let's say 5 days?
    Timer: http://www.timeanddate.com/counters...day=25&year=2012&hour=23&min=00&sec=00&p0=179

    LIVING PLAYERS (Red= Cooldown Pink= NG, Cyan= Revived)
    1. Mirdini (Post #1-244)→ Fortuna
    2. A Killer Cuppa Tea (Post #1-1059)→ Cosmic (Post #1059-1573)→ mishie
    3. Kai-
    4. Ixtaccihuatl
    5. jwlk
    NON-LIVING PLAYERS (Ordered by time of death then alphabetical)
    1. D1: Lungs (Post #1-803)→ Crilly
    2. N1: Aesa
    3. D3: Ash (Post #1-541)→ CWheezy
    4. D4: Kensington (Post #1-1573)→ LegendaryQ
    5. D5: Arkaal
    6. N5: aerinon
    7. N5: Archon Shiva
    8. N6: Ehrgeix
    9. D7: beruru (Post #1-311)→ Sirion
    10. N7: Deceptive (Post #1-1059)→ Aloop
    11. D8: Prime Intellect
    12. N8: Eidolonic
     
  36. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    This shouldn't actually take 5 days. Kill jwlk, win game, happy days. :)

    And, this is pretty obvious on my end:
    Active Lynch Jwlk

    Discuss whatever as needed. As stated yesterday, I think my record speaks for itself.
     
  37. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    waiting on jwlk

    As a good and proper potential towny, it's your job to convince us that ixta is the witch.

    Which is different from convincing us you aren't the witch.
     
  38. jwlk

    jwlk Member

    Okay, give me a minute and i'm making a post now. Please don't vote until I get it written.
     
  39. jwlk

    jwlk Member

    Ninja'd by Kai. Coming up~
     
  40. jwlk

    jwlk Member

    Okay, here my huge WoT.

    Ixta says that her record speaks for itself, and that’s why you should lynch me, but that’s wrong. Ixta’s record isn’t much to speak off. Ever since she’s been ‘town firmed’ due to Prime shooting her 2 times, she has just been coasting by, not adding anything to discussion in the recent days. Not even making a case against me, just literally posting fluff and that’s all. I know I’m not the epitome of activity, but I think even I have been contributing more than her.

    Day 1, Lungs and Ixta bussed each other. Lungs first post/vote was on Ixta. He also says he had scum reads on every single scum (except beruru who hadn’t posted yet). Himself, Kens, and Ixta. I can see Lungs thinking this is a good thing to do, as an attempt at distancing. And then all scum pile on him after, Ixta placing a vote and not even bothering to justify it.

    Anyway, on to more recent stuff. Fortuna did not ‘match’ with Ixta in polarity. Yet, a few days prior, when Prime was being lynched, he came out and told everyone Ixta was positive. What possible reason would Prime have to mislead the coven? None. At that point, she hadn’t even claimed Golem.

    Prime isn’t stupid; the fact that he shot and missed twice is a pretty big indicator that Ixta just won’t die. This is possible even if she weren’t the lodenstone. Remember, if the Seamstress dies, witches can only die to lynches. So even if Ixta is a neutral witch, she would not have died. This would also explain why Prime was flip-flopping around with her polarity (saying positive, then negative).

    Also, she focused hardcore on Fortuna, who was thought to be scum, and would have been an easy mislynch. This point is less effective, because a lot of people were doing it, but its something to point out.

    So, TL;DR. Ixta has just been coasting by these past few days, saying her ‘record speaks for itself’. The only reason she was considered more town than others was her 2 survivals of night kills, which, doesn’t make sense because witches don’t die to nk’s when the seamstress is dead. Prime called her polarity out as positive when there was no reason for him to mislead the coven, yet changed it down the stretch when he (presumably) realized she was a witch. And, that’s all I got. Its 2:30 am, and I have to be up in about 3 hours. If this can’t convince you, nothing I ever write will. I hope you guys make the right choice, either way it’s been a good game.
     
  41. jwlk

    jwlk Member

    And, with that I will:

    Active Lynch: Ixta.
     
  42. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    ixta, care to sell us on jwlk?
     
  43. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    Sure, I can do a jwlk post tonight after work if you'd like. That shouldn't be too hard; as Eido commented just a bit ago, jwlk has consistently been one of the most scummy people in the game. (As opposed to myself, who actually scared Prime enough with my protown moves that he tried to shoot me twice. He was probably hating it when I did things like point out how he never commented on sirion, or how I had him and ehrgeix in my lol-coven idea, which, while wrong, showed that I was picking up on a few things that were off, like Prime buddying the people he believed to be scum. I just wish I had paid more attention to my own suspicions at the time. :( )
     
  44. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    hard mode: don't refer to anything (recent) eido has said about jwlk.

    Do you accept this challenge?
     
  45. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    I can do whatever you want Kai-. Question though: How recent is recent? And do you want to ban the opinions of anyone else I may be tempted to quote? If you want a straight post by post analysis, Ehrgeix already did one of those in #1395, I'd hate to be purely repetitive. Besides which, I think quoting other (absolutely townfirmed) people's reactions to jwlk has a bit more sense of validity and objectivity to it than anything I can say on my own opinion now, since everything I say is going to be looked at from the perspective of, "If she is possibly a witch, then she will be twisting everything to look as bad as possible." But if I can point to something and say, jwlk posted something questionable here, and this person and this person both picked up on it as a scum tell, and they don't have any supposed motivation to deceive town, etc, it's slightly more legitimate than my opinion alone. If that makes sense.

    Also, do you want me to do any defense of myself? As stated, I don't really feel like I need to, but I have to admit, that "coasting" comment irritates me, since I at least feel like I was doing a lot, and felt that my 95% town status was well deserved far beyond just getting targeted.

    Essentially though, you guys really shouldn't be relying on jwlk and I ripping into each other to make your decisions, although I'm sure there are clues to be gained here. One of us, at least, will in fact be lying, so it's important that you're skimming things and forming your own viewpoint. (Definitely should have been doing that all along anyway though too. :p )
     
  46. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    Hmm, I was hoping to get an answer to this before it got too late, but I'm thinking I'll just head to bed here soon, and do this tomorrow instead. We've got the time I guess, even though I'd hate to drag it out too long.
     
  47. Kai-

    Kai- Well-Known Member

    Recent defined as anything since prime and sirion were revived.

    Obviously you're free to push at jwlk however you like - I'm not going to tell you how I can be best convinced =p
     
  48. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    lol, of course. Once again then, this will (actually!) happen tonight.

    (Last night turned out to be awful timing anyway. Brilliant child that I am, I went to the store after work and carefully locked the car doors ...with the keys still in the ignition. And then got home 4 hours late, which was about 10 min before guests were supposed to start showing up for a party. *dies*)
     
  49. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    ~3 days until day 9 ends!

    BONUS ROUND:
    (in your QT) What color is the Loose Cannon's robe?

    EXTRA CREDIT:
    If the Diode were considered the 6th Witch, what color would their robe be?
     
  50. Ixtaccihuatl

    Ixtaccihuatl Well-Known Member

    Ok, Lets start off with Jwlk's votals

    Day 1: Voted to lynch Lungs in Post #439, makes a point of saying he was waiting for lungs to post. He is the 11th person to vote for Lungs here, although he counts as position 10, because deceptive removes his Lungs vote and makes it a Jwlk vote. Either way, well after bandwagon is established, and just slightly after Sirion's vote in #428 (maybe noticing the other witches were giving up on resisting that vote). He goes after in Post #529. Amusingly, Bbobjs misses both of jwlks votes, and he isn't counted in the official votals in Post #537. Jwlk never comments on being uncounted.

    He was the 3rd person to vote for Deceptive in the elections.

    Day 2: Doesn't do any voting at all for quite a while, gets poked by an irritated Eido in Post #700. Votes for Kens in Post #714. 4th position vote. (Kens and jwlk have their 'what actually happened on irc?' fight here. At a guess, kens decided to bus a teammate who looked to be under quite a bit of suspicion, and jwlk lashed back.) This vote was never changed, Sirion was lynched this day.

    He never made an election vote.

    Day 3: jwlk votes for Klackerz in Post #862, corrects this to Kens in Post #865. This puts him in position 5 on the Kens vote at the time he voted. He then switches to cwheezy in Post #870, putting him in at the 8th voting position. He also does a last minute elect on prime in this post.

    Day 4: Lynches Kens in the 8th posistion in Post 1005 and is the 9th vote on Archon for election. (Never does actually do his assigned coven-creation project, he throws out a few reads pairings, but that's it. Terrible post in general, as noted by Fortuna in #1015.)

    Day 5:#1172, Throws a lynch at Aerinon, Elects Aloop. Switches Lynch vote in Post 1183. *This post is significant because it contains that little teaser bit about having info on a past NG. This was probably jwlk thinking about trying an info role claim, but he never followed through with it, and he never had any info for us at all.

    Day 6: This is the day of the Prime is LC stuff. jwlk is missing for pretty much all of it, and pops in to make this tiny post: #1521, as the last vote for prime besides prime hammering himself. (His other posts this day consisted of "i'm not the scummiest" and "yay for helping" ...and that's it.)

    Day 7: Post #1605: Lynches Prime, Elects Ixta, repeats, I'm not a witch!
    I claim Golem in Post #1639
    #1647 is a jwlk post saying to check polarities because I must be a witch, makes posts 1649 and 1650, claims golem in #1651. Despite this, he doesn't change his votes until much later, in this post: #1726

    Day 8: No Jwlk posts at all, and no votes.

    OK, this took a LOT longer than I thought it would, due to skimming the entire thread, so more things will have to wait again until tomorrow. Rough summary, pretty much all of jwlks posts are scummy, and he gets lynch-voted for almost every day early on, along with tons of suspicion, but just happens to get lucky that the trains built up on other people instead due to various things.

    Random tidbits I noted and planned to extend into a full post analysis section (maybe tomorrow):
    #460
    Seems a lot like how Orange sounded in the logs Arkaal posted.

    Post #171
    Post #206
    "going off content! ...but not actually going off content, just don't want the other guy to get it"

    Posts of note from Prime:
    #830
    Prime seems to have done some real buddying up to people he thought were witches in this game, this could be a similar case of it, since he seems to dismiss the possibility of jwlk as a witch even as he addresses it. it may be his true thoughts were that jwlk was actually more likely to be witchy.

    #924
    At this point there is one vote on Tea, and one vote on Jwlk, and we all know that Kens is scummy as well. Prime avoids anything about jwlk, and throws a vote at Tea.
    (Prime does later switch his vote to Kens)
     

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