Tinyhunt 2

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Ehrgeix, Jul 1, 2012.

  1. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    Sorry for making your head hurt. If I had been more clear it would have been BAD.
    Still trying to catch up on stuff, but so far I have a general idea that is more or less forming up.

    This is gonna be my first endgame and I do see that I do not feel it as comfortable as it seemed just 1 game day away.

    I see mass claim as bad in the case where there are 2 witches left. Though I believe there is only 1 left. But I cannot go along with this idea since there is always the risk of me being wrong with number of witches alive/dead.

    I do not think even a lovers claim is good. Imagine a world where they actually had luck by souping one of the lovers, that would leave the 2nd one in the open by just claiming lovers.
  2. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    Also, I'm trying to run thru Eido's old posts...
    Only to find that I cannot see his profile at all.
    Any other way to go around that or do I really have to filter manually in this thread?
  3. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    @aerinon: do you still stand by your lynch vote?

    @wobber: give me your reasons on why you deadline me? other than my 1 newbish night post

    @bbobjs: which witch do you think still lives (or plural)?

    @Eido: same as bbobjs
  4. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    The problem with lover claim is that if we mislynch, it's a 50% chance of it being game over.

    It's offset somewhat by making it much easier to narrow down the remaining witch(es).

    I personally think we have one witch left, and it is either Marabu or Deceptive. But that's based off of making some assumptions about other things.

    I think Marabu is on the wrong track regarding Deceptive and Bbobjs - they are not automatically co-aligned, it is possible for one to be a witch and the other town. In certain scenarios, they could be scum together. It's what Aerinon is afraid of, and I fully admit it's a possibility, even if it's not what I think is the most likely world.

    We're either looking at:

    2 witches left - Deceptive + Bbobjs or Wobber


    1 witch left - Deceptive or Marabu or Bbobjs or Wobber

    Mechanically you guys can't fully dismiss myself or Aerinon, but from my perspective, I think this is what we're looking at. And if I'm horribly wrong about Aerinon and he played an amazing scum game, I'll just tip my hat.

    If we are in the 2 witch world and we mislynch, town effectively automatically loses.

    If we are in the 1 witch world and we mislynch, we lose if witches make a kill and get 2 soups (This is why lover claim today is bad). Otherwise we get another shot at the lynch tomorrow.

    If I look at it logically, Deceptive makes a lot of sense to lynch today. He has a chance of being the last witch in 1-witch worlds, and in 2-witch worlds, it prevents us from automatically losing.

    My gut tells me that Marabu is our last witch. My brain tells me lynching him today is risky.

    I think the optimal plan is to lynch Deceptive and then mass claim tomorrow, when we absolutely have to lynch the last witch?
  5. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    So many big walls of text from Eido tend to make me believe it's smoke-screening.

    Still it's not the way I'm going now. For the way some of ppl made inquiries I will step forth with thi:
    I know it will look bad but so far I will go Deadline aerinon
  6. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    That's uh.

    Can you explain that vote? Like... what kind of coven does he fit into?

    Kai/Jwlk/Aerinon? Kai/Deceptive/Aerinon?

    And my 'big walls of text' is not really an indicator of my alignment. I'm a wordy son of a bitch at times, especially when trying to talk myself through all the possibilities.
  7. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    see post 494:
    I'm starting to feel this big conspiracy theory where they felt like Kai- would anyways shortly be lynched early into the game. Maybe from previous game slip-ups? idk.
    I've talked about Eido's big walls of text. I'm not saying is doing the smoke-screening on purpose but rather that someone else is gaining a benefit from it.
    I know aerinon's let us know from time to time that he is on his phone or that his net is down.... but on top of that I see rather well-sized periods of time where it looks like he just let things soar by.

    And yes Kai-/jwlk/aerinon

    ps: add to that post 344 which was put in rather late before end of the day. It looks like after figuring that there was no way out of lynching jwlk (his actual witch buddy) he just followed suite to look good.

    ps#2: I'll color it here just so mod can see it well Deadline aerinon.
  8. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Like... the case against Aerinon would be that he led the lynch against Kai on day one because he thought him being lynched was inevitable - and he'd have known that Kai would confirm as scum upon death.

    I thought about that, but I don't really see it? Like... it'd be a pretty crazy long-con game, and would put them down a scum (though admittedly taking a hopefully strong town with them) almost immediately.

    I just.... don't see it. Though admittedly I latched onto him as a town read early, and I'm kind of stubborn with regards to my reads at times. Which can mean I'm horribly wrong, like I was with Ixta in Polarity Hunt 3. I helped push him as a Lump candidate, and I don't like being wrong, heh.

    I guess I want to hear what other people think about Aerinon, about you, and about the two-witch risk management situation.

    Because it's still a thing. Aerinon is not scum with Deceptive, and therefore lynching him if there are two scum remaining would flat out lose the game.
  9. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    You ever heard about the 2-man violin con?
  10. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Doesn't ring a bell, specifically.
  11. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    Or just a 2-man con.
  12. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    Read that in a book once: American Gods. In the book a story is told to explain a 2-man con.

    One man goes into a shop with his old violin, wanting to sell it to the merchant. The merchant shows no interest in that old thing and the fiddler goes out. Another customer who was there tells the merchant "you know that was a genuine Stradivarius. The maker's signature was there. It must be worth thousands of dollars". The merchant runs out to the fiddler, says he's changed his mind and buy the violin 400$.
    Now what the merchant doesn't know because he was put under a glamour is that the violin in fact cost 20$. And both the fiddler and extra customer are con-men working together.

    That's a bit like that.
  13. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    So, I'm not convinced that koopa was the Priest. That's the lynch pin of my agrument agaisnt Deceptive at this point. Wobber thinks Koopa played a good priest and from the one bbobjs post, he thinks it is possible that koopa was priest. Well, I had to go read Koopa as if he were Priest and him following bbobjs, even if he checked him seemed weird. It's throwing me off. Currently, I'm a bit pro-lynch Deceptive because it narrows down the worlds to a single witch left in all cases... granted, not-mislynch a town Deceptive is slightly better, but we worry about soup kills less after Deceptive is gone too.

    Now, I really don't know if this is best course of action. It is certainly a "safe-ish" course of action. It hedges our bets considerably, but I keep getting town reads on Deceptive, it's just my worse case scenario paranoia kicking in.

    Now, if I were to look at town-Deceptive worlds. I'd mostly be looking at bbobjs, Eido, Marabu, and Wobber. Wobber been reading town to me since D2, and I didn't seriously consider him because bbobjs stuff. Bbobjs was fake-claiming all along, just like in TinyHunt 1 so whatever. It worked there, so why not here? I don't think anything makes him particularly town except no Acolyte or Priest jumped on him. Eido, I didn't feel very good about going into D3 but I liked his defense and previous votes helped me move him into townier reads. Marabu on the other hand has had other interesting moves that made me think town and hence I aggroed on Moo yesterday.

    Really, I'm surprised I haven't been under suspicion this whole game until Marabu voted me. Well, the jwlk lynch. Yep, I wanted to lynch someone. And I wanted Deceptive alive for a bit just in case he really was Detective. I wasn't convinced on the jwlk lynch. I didn't think the case was that strong, but since a couple people made cases for it... I was willing to push it through. And if it turned out that jwlk was likely town, then I'd hold them responsible.

    Kai-ixta D1. It was my intention to pressure at least two people Day 1 and then let the judge sort them out. So, yeah I did that.
  14. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Gah so still not home. Anyway I have a computer for a moment, let's see what I can address.

    I personally believe he's town but I suppose it's also possible he's demon, saw no check N1 then jumped to the conclusion that Detective was dead when pressured and ran with it. This would also allow him to nail that I'm not priest simply because he would also see no priest checks would fall in line with some of my other theories. Personally though I think Deceptive is town because it would have been much easier to sell someone else up the river and keep laying low than attempt to get me killed.

    I think Koopa was priest and I don't REALLY want to say much more on the issue.

    Well I was really hoping dancer wouldn't fuck me like that but w/e. I tried to make my false checks match what I assumed the priest would do but... didn't really work out. I don't think it was a complete failure but definitely not the result I was hoping for.

    If people need me to claim, I'm willing to claim assuming it's the people I trust who want it.

    POST 507 by Marabu:
    Demon is alive in either Deceptive town worlds or Deceptive scum worlds. If Deceptive is scum, the occultist is probably also alive... but again I don't think Deceptive is lying.

    Lynch Eidolonic, hope Aerinon isn't the final scum, win with lynch tomorrow if we're wrong?
  15. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    @Wobber: it looks to me you have become more evasive as we near end-game. What's up?
  16. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    Okay, that's Marabu, bbobjs, Wobber and obviously Deceptive who are strongly to vaguely against the Deceptive lynch. It's not going to happen. Unvote. Enough people seem to think that koopa might've been the Priest. Fine. We can run with that.

    @bbobjs. I don't really want your claim because I can't see it helping unless you are a lover.

    In general, if both lovers are alive, that's a pretty strong claim. Single lover claim... kind of weak, but less horrible that an outright claim.

    Votals are currently at: (7 votes so 4 for majority)
    Marabu: 1 (Wobberjacky)
    bbobjs: 1 (Deceptive)
    aerinon: 1 (Marabu)
    Eidolonic: 1 (bbobjs)
    Abstaining: 3 (Eidolonic, Aerinon, Lump)

    So, we're all over the board and no one is getting pressured. Okay time for wagon analysis. I think we can all agree that Ixta, Arkaal, Archon, and koopa should be treated as town. I‘ll add myself as town and color them green. Kai was scum so he’s red. If you assume Deceptive is town, Moo is town and Jwlk is scum. I’ll puit town assumptions in blue and scum assumptions in orange. I’m going to assume bbobjs town at this point as well.

    Kai- (Arkaal, Aerinon, Marabu, Ixta, Archon, koopa, Wobber)
    Ixta (Archon, Aerinon, Wobber, Moo, bbobjs, Deceptive)

    Deceptive (Eido, Wobber, Marabu, Aerinon, koopa, bbobjs)
    Jwlk (Archon, Deceptive, Koopa, bbobjs, Eido, Aerinon)

    Eido (bbobjs, Wobber, Moo, koopa)
    Moo (Eido, Aerinon, Marabu, Wobber)

    I think wobber looks worst in this world. He’s the only possible scum on the Ixta train D1. He is not on the jwlk train but present on Deceptive’s and Moo’s and even Eido’s train whose alignment would be town if Wobber is scum. Wobber votes for Kai- but near the end of the train and switches back to Ixta once that picks up. Wobber is the hammer for Moo which is probably slight town points there, but not as much because Moo is assumed inno.

    Marabu is not on the Ixta train, but is nearly identical to Wobber in voting pattern. Differences include getting on the Kai train and staying there. And not being on Eido’s train. So yeah, possible scum here, too.

    Eido is fairly absent D1. He initiates both the Deceptive train and the Moo train. However, he swtiches over to Jwlk and convinces me to switch to jwlk near the end of D2. I like his voting pattern the best (most town) of the three I examined so far.

    Questioning assumptions: if I leave bbobjs as non-town. He’s on Ixta D1, Deceptive late in D2 but switches to jwlk and starts the Eido train which doesn’t end in a lynch. Not much of a case, here really.

    If we assume Deceptive is scum, then Wobber and bbobjs look lots better. Moo becomes possible scummate, but that doesn’t seem very likely to me. In fact, I have a hard time picking a good scummate for Deceptive besides Moo.

    Conclusion so far: Deadline Lynch: Wobberjacky (I have to deadline lynch from here on out to avoid quick hammers) I can't imagine that there was NO witch voting for Ixta on D1. I mean, yeah right. Wobber, you are a witch.
  17. Deceptive

    Deceptive Well-Known Member

    I'd be happy to vote for wobber or marabu but marabu has made me feel a lot better about him today actually. Wobber is probably our last scum.

    If I had to rank likelyhood of being scum this would be it.


    But I am the only person getting bad vibes from aerinon except marabu I think. And wobber is much more likely scum.

    Deadline Wobber
  18. Wobberjacky

    Wobberjacky Well-Known Member

    Honestly this game is getting pretty tedious, for a variety of reasons.

    Aerinon I don't know where you're getting the idea I don't want to lynch Deceptive. I still think koopa's risk-aversion works.

    D1 voting: already explained this twice, I think. Aerinon, you're scum argument for me seems to be based entirely on votes, like the one Eido tried to start making D2. You admit that Marabu has almost the same voting pattern as me. I know some of his big scum-reads (crazy bandwagoning, night-time question) are hard to trust because they seem like such elementary mistakes for a witch to make, but don't you think they're a better lead than my odd voting D1 and me not wanting to lynch an afk guy? You're ignoring a bigger scum-read from him to pick at a slight scum-read from my voting patterns.

    I won't get started on Eidolonic-scum today unless people go that way, but his counter-argument to my accusation is pretty weak and I don't know why you guys bought it. If I succeed in convincing you to lynch Marabu and the game doesn't end, I'll go more into why Eidolonic would be scum.
  19. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    I would like to see a vote or deadline vote from Eidolonic. Anyone else feel that way?
  20. Wobberjacky

    Wobberjacky Well-Known Member

    I mean ffs now that I look back I don't even think we pressured Marabu AT ALL about his night-time question. What the hell?
  21. Wobberjacky

    Wobberjacky Well-Known Member

    Yes. Very strongly.
  22. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    You know I would like to hear from Eidolonic more.

    Yes, Wobber, my argument against you is mostly based on voting. I think its a slightly stronger case than Marabu? I'm just not seeing Marabu as scum so far. The sheeping on Kai- really isn't that bad when you consider that Kai- is killer. And the night time question. Well, I guess we should ask him about that, but it didn't scream SCUM to me.
  23. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I think Marabu and Deceptive are more likely witches than Wobber?

    But I like the way Aerinon went about things in that post, and that Ixta wagon in kind of interesting. I can definitely understand where you get Wobber scum from that.

    I can see Kai/Deceptive/Moo?

    Part of me really wants to lynch Deceptive, because paranoia is setting in pretty hard. If there are two witches remaining, and we lynch incorrectly today, we lose, flat out.

    But that's probably the crazy talking.

    I can see every one of you being a witch, in different scenarios.


    I don't really see Deceptive/Wobber covens as being all that reasonable, but if you guys really think we're in 1-witch remaining worlds, I'm okay with it? I think Marabu has a better chance of being scum, but it's probably only something like 5-10% more likely.

    Deadline Vote: Wobberjacky
  24. Wobberjacky

    Wobberjacky Well-Known Member

    That vote does not seem to follow from the rest of your post, Eido. Unless I'm missing something.
  25. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    If you believe I'm town, then believe in me and don't lynch Wobberjacky.

    IMO Eidolonic > Marabu > Aerinon > Wobber > Deceptive > Bbobjs
  26. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I would be okay with a Marabu or Deceptive lynch?

    Especially if you're saying what I think you're saying.
  27. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I'm OK with a Marabu Lynch instead of an Eidolonic Lynch
  28. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I think that means that (from my perspective, as always) we're in one of three worlds:

    Kai, Jwlk, Marabu
    Kai, Deceptive, Moo
    Kai, Jwlk, Aerinon

    It effectively rules out 2-scum worlds, which means that a Deceptive lynch is much less attractive. I think he's maybe a tiny bit more likely scum than Aerinon, but it's possible it's just me being stubborn and stupid. I don't like being wrong.

    Deadline Lynch: Marabu
  29. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    Well, this is still telling. Okay let try, Deadline Lynch: Marabu.
  30. Deceptive

    Deceptive Well-Known Member

    Deadline lynch Marabu
  31. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    So who's willing to lynch Eidolonic instead of Marabu? If no one then we're probably done here and should just end the day.
  32. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    Really!?!??!? I am not changing my vote so far but REALLY!?!
  33. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    And I was just about to add that I don't see you guys changing your mind in an orderly fashion.
    We could ask Ergheix to speed things along.

    Goodbye and thanks for all the fish!
  34. Wobberjacky

    Wobberjacky Well-Known Member

    I have nothing more to say. Deadliners, hammer this so we can finish this game soon.
  35. Wobberjacky

    Wobberjacky Well-Known Member

    Whoops forgot I was a deadliner.

    lynch Marabu
  36. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    FWIW Marabu, I'd rather lynch Eidolonic. As for Aerinon, the only reason I'd rather lynch him than Wobber is it prevents us from falling into an edge case tomorrow but walks us into a 50/50 if he's not the final witch. Considering that he was (correct me if I'm wrong) a supporter of lynching both Kai- and JWLK, I'm working under the assumption that Aerinon is probably town unless MAJOR witch gamble... and if they really went all in like that... honestly I suppose I'll just have to hold that L for losing town ANOTHER tiny hunt.
  37. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    I could be convinced to lynch Eidolonic instead. What makes him a likelier witch than Marabu?
  38. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    I am not going to answer that instead of anyone else but I think what should be considered is WHO is top lynch tomorrow?
  39. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    I think the last witch is either Marabu or Deceptive - with Aerinon being a possibility. Marabu did lay a case out against Aerinon, but it didn't make a ton of sense to me.

    If we lynch Marabu and the game doesn't end, then tomorrow is our last chance (obviously). We'll mass claim, and examine posts to see if everything holds up, before making our final decision.

    But I think the game ends with a Marabu lynch at this point.

    @Marabu - lets say we're wrong, and you're town (From your perspective, that's obviously the case). Do you still agree with the case you laid out against Aerinon? Is Deceptive an option for you? I think I trust the Bbobjs/Wobber thing, so unless their claims tomorrow don't support the Reasons for trusting them, I'm ignoring that for now.
  40. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    So uh, 6 + Lump alive. Majority is 4. I'd appreciate it if everyone got night actions in asap (maybe start thinking about them now and have them up for night start?). I'll keep an eye on the thread and try to move stuff on promptly as soon as people hit majority (assuming this happens).
  41. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    I stand by my super conspiracy theory against aerinon.
    My second guess is either you or Wobber as the last witch.

    And of course I'm innocent. But I cannot prove it without claiming can I.
  42. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    Okay, I'm tired of this. Let's just move on.

    Lynch: Marabu

    I think that's the hammer.
  43. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    DAY 4 ENDS.

    Marabu was lynched!

    It is now night 4.

    Day 5 will start when I've processed all actions - I think everyone has everything in, so the game should be resolved in 10 minutes~!

    bbobjs - gone from 13th-15th july
    aerinon + Lump - gone from 20th-27th july, will queue actions etc

    koopatroop/Leto - dead
    Marabu - dead
    Archon Shiva - dead
    Arkaal - dead
    jwlk - dead
    KaiDASH - dead
    Ixta - dead
    Moo - dead
  44. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    NIGHT 4.

    The Guardian Angels vote to protect aerinon
    ... but Kai- explodes!

    aerinon is nightkilled.


    Deceptive is successfully matched to role: detective, and dies.


    bbobjs is successfully matched to role: benedick, and dies.


    Wobberjacky is successfully matched to role: beatrice, and dies.

  45. Eidolonic

    Eidolonic Well-Known Member

    Boom, headshot(s).
  46. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    wow. just wow.
  47. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    smoke screening did work for you then didn't it?!
  48. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    And I want to say at this point, I am SO sorry bbobjs that I screwed up your dual-false claim so early in game.
  49. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    Eidolonic - demon
    jwlk - occultist
    KaiDASH - killer

    Arkaal - eager cadet
    bbobjs - benedick
    Wobberjacky - beatrice
    aerinon + Lump - martyr
    deceptive - detective
    koopatroop/Leto - priest
    Marabu - dancer
    Archon Shiva - acolyte
    Ixta - judge
    Moo - pope


    A few thoughts:
    The game turned out to be very close despite two successful lynches and only one mislynch. Witches getting 3 soupkills is essentially the breakpoint where they almost certainly win - role reveals are free kills later. That said, it did come down to a 50/50 coinflip on whether bbobjs or wobber was benedick, so it could have very easily gone the other way. I think that generally speaking town underestimated the power of soup.

    I also made a post in the TH ruleset design thread re: updating some things for if I end up running another game - discussion there would be neat too.
  50. Marabu

    Marabu Member

    I for one did not underestimate the power of soup. I did underestimate the chances of the remaining players ever being cornered into such a precarious situation.

    I can't help but wonder if soup might always be so powerful near endgame:
    Of course it looks like a bad idea to use it early on with the reveal upon failure, that's just dumb. Sounds to be the very reason that there are lovers, so they can reveal halfway, tempting the witch(es) to go into the gambit. But gambits are win or lose situations, no shades of grey.

    Was it voluntary to make it so strong?

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