Tinyhunt game 1

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by garcia1000, Feb 18, 2011.

  1. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    No, I do not know it. Let's look at the original question:
    I fail to see much difference, seriously. I would totally get how you didn't care for the last bit and answered the first part at face value, but I did not alter the question.

    Is it easier to get under your skin as town or scum, usually?
     
  2. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I actually wasn't sure how well my campaign would work but I figured it'd be worth it to try; I was actually somewhat shocked at how little opposition I received. If I'd flopped I probably would have supported Alex mainly because I feel Alex the player has a very high chance of not being killed.
    I'll release an album post game... unless I forget.
    I think the numbers are extremely likely to be worse than this, for N2 Vigilante kill on Town. I'm still willing to die for N3 though... as for N4 I still haven't put much thought into it.

    @The Judge Subject:
    I'm actually somewhat shocked that some people don't want D1 Judge Lynch. Assuming we agree on two potential targets and instruct the Judge to pick between the two, it seems strictly better than normal Lynch. Maybe I'm just weird but being lynched and being 50% lynched are things I'm equally likely to avoid. Considering we generally have ~2 top choices anyway, it doesn't seem like there's a realistic downside.
     
  3. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Milski is the EC and CWheezy is the Priest. Judge plan forces CWheezy to speak up in all cases, whereas actual voting only makes him reveal if he's the target. If Mislki is the spiritualist, it might be worse.

    I'd totally tell judge "kill X unless hard data", but judge doesn't have hard data unless he's X.
     
  4. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    As someone who's been unfortunate enough to get stuck playing the role twice, I think I'm qualified to say the following; If Priest is getting pressured to near claim D1 then at least 2 people are fucking up so I'm not super worried about this. True with D1 Judge there's potential to end up with a Town player in direct conflict with another Town player but how is this all that different from one Town trying to escape pressure by pinning another Town? The only difference is that two people are potentially forced to make a final statement before hammer, which I honestly don't believe is actually -EV for town.
     
  5. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Well, let's decide on those two people, then.
    Because right now, if the day were to end, I have a feeling that I'd be judge lynched.

    Ok, I'll start by throwing out two names: Golden119 and Arkaal.
     
  6. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    I kinda feel like Zejety flew right under the lump radar, was bbobjs just that sexy of a candidate that everyone forgot about him?
     
  7. Zejety

    Zejety Well-Known Member

    Seems that way. But even I admitted that bbobjs reasoning made him a good panda friend.
     
  8. Claytus

    Claytus Well-Known Member

    Answering Acolyte to your question, does not imply that some role other than acolyte would be replaced by the VH.


    Regarding judge lynch: I can't believe anyone would support that plan after having played this game before. Has a judge lynch *ever* gone well for us? Usually they take out an info role, and do it in a way that prevents that info role from revealing anything to town.

    Like... lynch bbobjs because of that incredibly brilliant plan alone.
     
  9. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    Since there is no Medium...I'm not quite sure why Judge-lynch is desired as bbobjs proposes?
     
  10. AlexSierra

    AlexSierra New Member

    Yeah, I don't like the judge plan too. I prefer we lynch the old fashioned way.

    Does anyone have that link to see how many posts everyone has ?
     
  11. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    I don't think I've done any mistakes using my power in Sotekhunt; but we didn't start using it until way late in the game.

    You've just deflected my vote, though. Well done.

    bbobjs's claim to lump, much like PI's mayoral in the last game, contained more info than I wanted out there, although it did not make him a bad elect. So I went for him with no second thought.
     
  12. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Technically it helped in WH5 simply because everyone tried to fake your role, failed and temporary good times were had. Ultimately it didn't matter though. In Garcia hunt the first Judge Lynch worked out, protected our MS and through everyone off even suspecting him as an info role.
    Judge lynch being desirable over normal lynch has nothing to do with Medium, rather in many games Judge lynch was undesirable because it denied Medium info; this is why you didn't see Judge lynch in Sotekhunt and WH4. What actually makes Judge lynch desirable is that Judge can't lynch Judge and thus Judge has an innately lower chance to hitting a Town player.
    In the topic list, click on the post total in the replies column for the topic you're interested in.
     
  13. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    Well, considering it's D1 and town has very little info, I guess D1 judge lynch is SLIGHTLY better? Now I'm wondering why Claytus thinks lynching our newly elected lump friend is a good idea...?
     
  14. Golden119

    Golden119 Member

    I agree with -

    This

    And this

    And this

    Although the judge thing is only in event of almost total absence of info.
     
  15. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    So I'd like to hear something from RoieTRS, afterward I'll cast a deadline vote and hopefully have a solidish reason for it.
     
  16. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Well, I like the idea of judge lynch better if we give the judge a couple people to choose from. That's much better than just saying "forget lynching and let the judge decide," which I think is completely anti-town.

    Anyone got any desire to pressure someone? I don't think I've got any reads that compel me to cast a vote yet...
     
  17. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    ok, some time to post!

    I think coaching the priest is only bad because it gives the impression that one is not the priest, and if one is really not the priest that sucks. As long as the priest is aware of this they're free to play whatever mindgames they like. On that note, priestcheck lumpholder is good.

    -

    Ithaldir seems quite aggressive, and his play seems similar to the last witchhunt sorta, but like... the focus seems more +town? I am kind of happy with him and suspicious of him at the same time.

    -

    bbobjs die for vig info n3 seems crazy to me. Why do you think it's so valuable, bbobjs?

    -

    Arkaal:

    most important town roles - priest, martyr, pope

    -

    aarg

    -

    These posts came over as kind of suspicious to me, but the posts claytus made after this have made me happier.

    -

    judge lynch seems pretty ok d1.

    -

    PI: why do you think you would be judge lynched?
     
  18. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Dunno, just another one of those gut feelings I get sometimes.
     
  19. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    I see quite a few people put Martyr on top 3-why is this? Seems like it's just anoter town role because he lacks info to make good use of the ability.
     
  20. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    We'll see what things look like on Day 3, I'll talk about it more depending on how things look then. Basically I'd rather not die, but if Vigilante REALLY wants to play it safe, I'm a relatively safe option... unless bad shit happens.
     
  21. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Martyr saving a target, creates a hard confirmed town player. Basically even if they mess up and save something shitty they still do more for town than simply letting that player die.
     
  22. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Martyr also allows leeway in making plans since he can keep any single player alive one more day, barring soup.
     
  23. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    martyr basically = one free publicized priestcheck
     
  24. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Soup doesn't create problems for martyr does it? Although a revealed witch that makes it until nightfall will definitely be used for soup.

    I suddenly agree that priest should probably reveal at 1 witch...
     
  25. Golden119

    Golden119 Member

    Martyr can save a soupkill.

    Nothing about bypassing protection or other things like Silencer in Chocohunt.

    Does GA Protect come before Martyr Save? I assume it does.

    Is "Martyr strategy" ok to talk about?
     
  26. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    GA protect only prevents Nightkills, Martyr Save happens after Nightkills so it shouldn't be effected. I think it's probably better to let the Martyr do what the Martyr wants to do but I don't think there's much harm in talking about what the role could do. In general I think most roles should act before it's too late.
     
  27. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    No, I don't think lynching bbobjs before he's checked is a good idea. Worst case scenario is that he's a Witch and Priest dies tonight. I think I like my chances.

    Hmm... how about this one.

    Yes sir, I did. He was talking about Vigilante killing townies based on the chance of them getting used as soup ingredients. I found that scummy and responded accordingly.

    Perhaps, but I still don't see how replacing Acolyte with a VH would be worse than replacing Spiritualist with a VH.

    I am quite aggresive... or at least I kinda was last couple of games.

    I'm not quite sure how to play my current role, so I'm just going about it the same way I did last couple of games. Of course, since both times I was coven I'm probably going to end up looking a bit scummy.

    Actually, because of that, if I were Priest I'd probably have to check myself at some point, though obviously it'd be a waste of a check.

    Oh, since he already answered this I'd like to answer it too, with the classic format: I am not Judge or a I am Judge and would totally lynch PI.

    Actually, I'll go ahead and vote to lynch PI.
     
  28. Golden119

    Golden119 Member

    Right, yes, thanks. The rules are crystal clear now I read them properly!

    I agree, although "act before it's too late" is obviously the tricky part.

    OK, with this in mind, I have a question for anyone math-inclined:

    Assuming random lynches and night kills - at what point is Role X statistically more likely to be dead than alive?

    On a seperate note to all, I'm finding the timezone to be more of a factor this game, nobody seems to be talking much during the day on GMT. Please keep this in mind if you need something from me.
     
  29. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Eh... I'd rather not die day 1. I've been laying low to avoid the lynch, but obviously I've drawn suspicion for that very reason. Is it ok if we revisit me tomorrow?
     
  30. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    Well, I'm ok with it, but I'd like to see what everyone else thinks about it.
     
  31. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    That almost makes you ping Killer to me, just sayin'.
     
  32. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Anyways, I've already stated whom I wish to lynch. Everyone seemed to ignore that post from me so I'll say it a bit louder:
    Lynch Arkaal
     
  33. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    Not literally everyone, I mean just a couple of guys agreeing and I'll unvote and go after my next target.
     
  34. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    I don't think I get this. I don't believe Killer should be worrying enough to out himself after a single vote.
     
  35. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Key word, VERY important.
     
  36. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Maybe people ignored you because you're not saying anything, just waving your finger around. Try giving a reason for people to listen to you.

    I'm wondering why RoieTRS is being left alone, since he has only made 1 post with content so far.

    ------------------------
    Posts
    Arkaal's Vote Tally (13 Alive, 7 is majority)

    Lynch Votes:
    RoieTRS: 1 (Arkaal)
    Arkaal: 1 (Prime Intellect)
    bbobjs: 1 (Claytus)
    Claytus: 2 (AlexSierra, Archon Shiva)
    Prime Intellect: 1 (Ithaldir)

    Abstaining: 7 (aerinon, bbobjs, Ehrgeix, Golden119, RoieTRS, Romdeau , Zejety)
    ------------------------
     
  37. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    Ask me questions.
     
  38. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Of the people that have votes so far, Prime Intellect seems the most scummy to me. So, in the interest of having effective pressure, I have voted. So, PI, why are you so worried about being lynched D1?
     
  39. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Why wouldn't any sane town be worried about being mislynched?
    Wouldn't you rather hit a witch? I sure would.
     
  40. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Sure, I'd love to hit a witch. But I don't think lying low is the best way to do it. We have to get out there and start pressuring people and see how they react.
     
  41. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Why didn't you participate in the Lump discussions at all?

    How do you feel about bbobjs getting Lump?

    How about his pseudo-claim?

    Who is your #1 scum candidate at the moment?

    Why did you put Eager Cadet on your "List of Important Town"? What about his ability makes you think he is more valuable than say, Spiritualist, Acolyte, and Vigilante?
     
  42. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Actually, most town are usually pretty comfortable when they have absolutely no votes on them. Witches are the ones that are generally more paranoid about getting lynched.

    While we'd certainly love to hit a witch, you're not really doing much to help that (unless you're a witch, of course).
     
  43. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Except, I'm pretty sure the judge was/is considering me as a judgelynch. I was stating that that cannot happen.
     
  44. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Unfortunately I suck at statistics and the existence of GAs makes this an extremely complicated statistics problem. If I had to guess a messy answer to your problem then I suspect it'll be more likely a Town role is dead than alive at the start of N4.
     
  45. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    lynch RoieTRS
     
  46. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Ooh, I forgot to address this question. This is a fascinating question: I mean if you assume true random, then all roles are equally likely to be dead. Adding in the simple assumption that witches typically night kill town and not themselves makes it more likely that town roles are dead. The Acolyte of course should affect the chances of the priest being dead due to lynch but that requires modeling lynch votes which is a very hard problem. Random voting tends to result in no lynch, etc. In fine, if someone was able to model the game well, you could focus on scenarios that are likely to occur in a normal playthrough, but then we're dealing with humans where I imagine witches slip up quite a bit more than a simulation or random variables can model. Then, you add GAs in, then who dies first tends to effect the likelihood of future roles being killed. A killed Acolyte can make the priest last quite a bit longer by protection, but a dead witch can explode and cancel the protection.

    Anyway, lots of ways to look at it, but first night decisions have a heavy impact on future decisions and there's lots of hard info in the game to help determine (probabilistically) the game state so you don't have to do a bunch of probability. I wonder if some of the game's designers are using mathematical tools to design the game, or if it is mostly guess work followed by close inspection of cases (degenerate and not) and experimentation. Anyway, if there is anyone out there with a good model for voting pattern of witches and other roles that have information, I'd love to see them..

    All that said, its still more fun to play the game than to model it because models rarely capture the very basic human interactions that are the heart of the game.
     
  47. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    An extremely simple model, where angel protects are random and NKs are random from all players, and not just town makes it start of D4 where any given role has a <50% chance of being alive. With real witches, it might be the start of N3, which is pretty much the same from town's perspective (but I'd actually have to spend some time to model that, and I don't want to).
     
  48. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Is that just a gut feeling, or do you have reads supporting it? (Feel free to not answer this, if you think it is -town)
     
  49. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Dunno; I suppose gut feelings = reads to me. I can almost never explain them, though.
     
  50. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    I guess I should phrase it differently, to get my meaning across.

    Do you just feel like you're going to die, or do you feel you know who judge is?
     

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