Tinyhunt game 1

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by garcia1000, Feb 18, 2011.

  1. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    I feel like I'm going to die and if I thought about it for a while I could probably take a stab at who the judge is. Sure as hell not saying any of that here, though.
  2. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Of course - I don't want to know that (yet). Very interesting.

    I am curious, do you have a specific thing that triggered your scumdar?
  3. AlexSierra

    AlexSierra New Member

    Claytus is no fun, I'm want to pressure Zejety, and not just because I love to type his name, so... vote Zejety
  4. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Going to go ahead and shift my vote over to Golden119
  5. Claytus

    Claytus Well-Known Member

    I expected I would do this to myself. But there were like, 3 questions asked about that post before you pointed it out to me. And I honestly can't think of much else that needs to be said, so I guess I won't follow up... sorry.

    lynch RoieTRS . Going after guy who's not talking but promised he would always seems worthwhile.

    I don't see any particular reason to agree to PI's request to hold off until tomorrow, btw. That seems unnecessary. But I don't see any particular reason to target him yet either.
  6. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    This is based on the assumption that 6/13 players die by the start of D4 right? I think this assumption short changes GAs slightly.

    1. Let's assume Town always Lynches a random target.
    2. Witches always NK a random town.
    3. GAs always protect a random target.

    The raw chances of Town not hitting a Witch for 3 days is about 40%
    The raw chances of a GAs failing to protect for 3 night is about 70%
    The raw chances of neither happening is about 30%

    So I'd say it's more likely that at least 50% of town roles are alive until the start of N4. This is of course assuming all town are VHs, witches are JWs and Soup doesn't exist.
  7. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    I don't feel like lump is that good. Most lynches are just lynch trains so an extra vote is not very powerful. bbobjs is probably a good choice but I honestly don't see lump ever mattering. I think it is kinda scummy to vote yourself for it. It benefits witches more than town.

    I think the scummiest player is PI for that reason, as well as his argument against getting mislynched. I think he could have made a better argument.

    How about someone explain to me how spiritualist is useful? Who cares if you know who GA votes for. Cadet gives GA some actual data which is really really powerful. I think I'm missing something important because spiritualist sounds slightly better than vampire hunter to me.
    In previous games of hunt I've played, all lynches were just lynch trains. Because of that, it is hard for acolyte to defend a priest without revealing anything. Over rated character.
    As for vigilante, I don't think it is weak, I just think it relies on town making mistakes too much and I don't think it is worth mislynching twice in a row to kill a single witch (not even guaranteed witch)
  8. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    to be clear I think the spiritualist is weak.
  9. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    Also for reasons I explained previously, vote Prime Intellect
  10. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    4 posts in a row with only 1 giving actual content seems bad, but I have to question this.
    I don't think this post made sense. Can you clarify, Claytus?
  11. Claytus

    Claytus Well-Known Member

    I just wanted you to answer the questions that you just answered.

    Now that you have... hmm. Not super-great answers right there.

    Hey PI: If you're gonna vote for golden, can you question him, or give us some reason to help you, or something?
  12. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    I prefer seeing a person's reaction to my vote before I ask them questions.
  13. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    There are two paragraphs in that post you know? I wanted you to notice the part where he picks not one, but two random targets who (at least to me) don't seem that scummy (maybe you don't agree, do you?)

    I mean, my reads aren't particularly great, but nobody seems to be following him now that he's actually putting votes on them, so maybe I'm actually right for once. But maybe you missed it because you're thinking he's probably Town... I dunno.
  14. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    My model was "Pick a role. What is the chance that it lives through D1, assuming a random lynch. What is the chance that it lives through N1, assuming a random kill target and random protect, etc, giving me a series of percentages for each Day and Night."

    The model shortchanges GAs some, and shortchanges witches a LOT.
  15. Claytus

    Claytus Well-Known Member

    I thought someone already asked him about that part, too.

    Anyway, I guess I can say I don't entirely disagree with him. I'm not convinced enough to actually vote for one of those guys yet, obviously. But it could happen soon... my vote hasn't been used to go after people I actually want lynched so far.
  16. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Then I don't see how you arrived at an answer of N3 or D4. It takes 6 dead town for the chances of a random town role being dead to exceed 50%. If Witches are including themselves as targets then it's just:

    D1(12/13)*N1(11/12)*D2(10/11)*N2(9/10)*D3(8/9)*N3(7/8)= ~54% the target is alive at the start of N4.

    If Witches aren't including themselves as targets then at best:

    D1(12/13)*N1(8/9)*D2(10/11)*N2(6/7)*D3(8/9)= ~57%
    D1(12/13)*N1(8/9)*D2(10/11)*N2(6/7)*D3(8/9)*N3(4/5)= ~45%

    Is that right? I'm honestly not sure. If we consider GAs, then I think the chances should remain higher than 50% even if we lynch town 3 days in a row; however I'm complete shit with statistics so I'm really not even sure how you'd model that.
  17. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    EBWOP: ~54% the target is alive at the start of D4.
  18. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Yes. The phrase "flying under the radar" or something similar. I could look it up for you if you like, but it sounded like he was admitting to using a classic witch strategy for no reason that I could tell. While he's not giving concrete info to back up his actions, now that he's posting a bit more stuff and being a participant, he feels less scummy and I'm considering changing my vote, but I'm not sure who to vote for.

    I was considering getting Roie to speak up but other people are doing a fine job there. Archon Shiva has been a little quiet lately since he voted for Claytus early on which seems a bit scummy to me since he's pretty active. But I don't have any other specific scumtells at the moment to work on.

    Bbobjs, you're on the right track with your statistics I think. Modelling GAs is just a wee bit more complicated. I haven't completely mathed it out because I don't see the value in it. Math should be used when you have info to help narrow down possibilities and to spot crazy corner cases that are unlikely but should be thought out.
  19. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    Hey guys! Soft deadline will be approx 24 hours and 35 minutes from now (11:00PM EST)
  20. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Deadline Archon Shiva let's see what happens

    Lump: 截止执政官湿婆
  21. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Haven't posted much because I don't have much to say. Lack of uber-active players really changes dynamics...

    That said, I had some doubts about PI, but not enough to lynch. Meanwhile, Claytus has regained some of my confidence, but not enough to clear him completely, and I don't really have any nice targets.

    Well, Golden is a witch, but I have nothing whatsoever to back that up with.
  22. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Good to know that I'm not the only one to feel this way.
  23. Golden119

    Golden119 Member

    PI

    Up until this point you hadn't done anything suspicious -

    So I don't know why you'd feel threatened, other than a guilty conscience.
    And your response to perceived threat was ... to attack 2 town guys, as I see it.
    I would have expected defence here, but maybe attack is the best form, etc etc.

    At this point if you were Judged I wouldn't be surprised (or disappointed, tbh).


    Archon

    As said above, I agree with what you say about PI.

    I also agree about Claytus. I get the feeling the lynch vote was just one big in-joke about scummy ol' Clay. But he sure does live up to the expectations. If he was Judged I wouldn't be surprised.

    Unfortunately you missed the trifecta by baselessly accusing me.


    Aerinon, Arkaal, Bbobjs, thanks for the math answers.


    Deadline is coming up, so I will cast a vote, and I think Ehrgiex needs to speak more. Ehrg, what do you think of the top 2 and bottom 2 posters on the "who posted" link? (include or exclude yourself, however you like)
  24. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    Ok then, I'll unvote PI. I just got more town reads than I really wanted, but not enough scum tells.This tells me Witches are probably being quiet. Thus I'll vote to lynch Ehrgeix.
  25. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    Ok, I was voting to lynch Ehrgeix, but after reading his posts I've noticed two things:

    First, he said he'd be busy. Fair enough, I guess. I still want him to post more though.

    Second, he actually kind of tried to defend me even though I'm being a bit scummy. I don't think Ehrgeix as a Witch would do that, so I'm forced to assume for now that he's in fact Town.

    Guess I'll just go with the crowd now and vote to lynch Golden119.
  26. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    I am amused, Ithaldir, that PI consistutes a crowd. Did I miss a vote? (see vote tally)

    Are you really trying to justify your behavior by the lack of Sotek in this game? (is there some other player of that activity level that's not here?) vote Archon Shiva for now since PI is losing momentum and the other votes seem old or don't interest me yet.

    Vote Tally
    ----------------------
    Who Posted
    13 alive (or is it 14 because of Lump?) - Majority is 7

    Claytus: 1 (Archon Shiva)
    Prime Intellect: 1 (RoieTRS)
    RoieTRS: 3 (Arkaal, Romdeau, Claytus)
    Zejety: 1 (AlexSierra)
    Golden119: 2 (Prime Intellect, Ithaldir)
    Archon Shiva: 1+2 (aerinon) (bbobjs+Lump)
    Ehrgeix: 1 (Golden119)

    Abstaining: 2 (Zejety, Ehrgeix)
  27. Golden119

    Golden119 Member

    It's frustrating that the action always kicks off just as I have to log out.

    Yet this -

    - was like 3 and a half days ago. He's posted twice since.
  28. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    That's the math I was using, for sure. Hmm. I probably looked at the "post-D4 lynch" number, which is really the start of N4. (would be ~46% then)

    No, that discounts the possibility that witches are lynched, and thus have fewer "non-targets" for NKs. Which is why I didn't model that.

    Anyways, I think we've covered the general idea.

    Well, Archon also clearly stated a desire to lynch Golden.

    I'm also interested in hearing what Golden119 has to say, and satisfied with RoieTRS for now. I'll see if I can dig up some questions for him.
  29. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    I don't feel like counting votes so I'll assume your tally is right. I also didn't bother counting votes before so crowd might have been a bit exaggerated. I assumed this post was some sort of agreement:
    And then saw this post...
    ... followed by PI's approval. That makes it 3... and that's a lot considering how dispersed votes are.

    I didn't notice RoieTRS had that many votes. I don't think he's a Witch though. But that's just because I think he might be the Eager Cadet crazily hinting his own role in his very first post (that's insane! Insane I'm telling you!) Of course, if that's the case he's at least the second best town target if we're going to mislynch anyway. But I'd prefer that we don't mislynch, obviously.
  30. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    Lol, looked over Roie's posts. Eager Cadet in the top 3 is pretty funny (and/or insane). I didn't notice that before. I disagree with his later logic that Eager Cadet is better than Spiritualist. I mean, what good is the GA knowing the Eager Cadet if there's no one to tell that to? Anyway, I think it is more a newbtell. Though I guess that kinda hypocritical since I'm probably more newb than he is.
  31. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Okay, let's be clear: Golden seems pretty town to me and has been supportive of my positions so far. Basically a minor version of how I felt about Shiri in Sotekhunt and koopa in WH5. See a pattern?

    It is nowhere near a lynch vote on Golden, though.

    @aerinon: Not just Sotek, 'cause he wasn't in Sotekhunt either, but look at my WH5 (Sotek) and garciahunt (DC/Karrius) track records, and you'll see I'm not making this up.

    Also very busy at work, though.

    Anyone wants me to ask someone questions? (or answer them...)
  32. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    Spiritualist information is entirely useless unless you have godlike yomi powers and found out who they were protecting next. Otherwise leave GA alone and let them do their thing. Spiritualist gets info after its too late to do anything with it.

    Ok maybe spiritualist MIGHT get some info IF HE/SHE IS LUCKY about someone who was protected. That won't happen until someone useful is dead though! Its like the vigilante. You lose too much to get too little reward.

    ECadet let's GA protect really cool people easier. It gives someone with actual mechanical power some information.
  33. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    Ha! If I was hinting at anything it is spiritualist!
  34. AlexSierra

    AlexSierra New Member

    Everybody going with the "Spiritualist is da sheet" makes me conclude that every single one of you is the eager cadet except roie.
  35. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    So I just thought of something... Demon being lynched day 1 kinda sucks for town. Like obviously it's better than lynching town but... yea not so great.

    Anyway I think Spiritualist is better than Roie believes but I agree it's extremely player dependent. I don't think it requires Yomi so much as it requires the ability to lie. Basically to play the role well you have to take things you shouldn't but do know and find ways to "know" something else that guides town towards the same solution or better yet, just away from the wrong one. Worst case you can just try to stay alive and serve as a late game info dump. This is definitely better than EC who's main features are living longer than expected and being allowed to act w/o minimal regret.
  36. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    GAs, historically speaking, usually protect town. So spiritualist learns a probably-town person every night. You don't need super-yomi powers to use that info.

    Um... what? That makes no sense.
  37. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    :confused:

    Wha...? I don't think losing a third of their team to confuse the Spiritualist is that great of a strategy for Witches. We got an Acolyte and Vigilante, you know? I don't think Demon dying D1 sucks... at all.

    That's so obvious that I don't feel like I'm helping Witches by saying it... heck, I'm so glad you're getting checked tonight.
  38. Claytus

    Claytus Well-Known Member

    <<Also doesn't understand the demon comment.

    Anyway, lynch Golden119. Deadline is getting close, and I hate early-game judge lynches. Sooner we get some real pressure going, the sooner Golden can defend himself. I don't think soup is WH5 bad, where everyone has to take a vow of silence. So let's hear some defense.
  39. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    Okay, time to make a case against him so he can maybe defend himself. I put Golden into my "Top 3" very early, because of these posts:

    I would expect something like this from a witch. It's a generic way to look like you're pro-town (by using the -town term), avoid giving info, and discourage anyone else from giving info.

    While I agree that bbobjs should have waited for his auto-win infoleak campaign, I read this as continuing to be strongly against any info, even if it's pro-town.

    Again with the random, even though it's already been explained that panda voting is for town info. He also suggests a completely ridiculous strategy that is even worse than true random. Then he veils a strategy that would call for a softclaim of power roles, even though he's complained about bbobjs' softclaim of non-power roles.

    Basically, his early play seems very suspicious to me, given his stance against getting anything useful for town out of the lump election.
  40. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Yea... I think it's for the best that I don't talk about it more, just in case.
  41. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I'd make the switch to golden but I don't wanta put us too close to hammer.
  42. aerinon

    aerinon Active Member

    I haven't read garciahunt yet, so I'll have to take your word for it. Actually, I was hoping that bbobjs would actually have something to bring against you to justify his vote... we'll see. I'll get off you soon if nothing comes up. I just don't have any good leads ATM.

    @Roie: I still think you're way off base, but I'm not going to try to convince you otherwise. Agree to disagree on that one?

    @bbobjs: :confused: killing demon bad for town on N1? what? That's going down in your permanent book. Perhaps you can explain on D2?
  43. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    It's less +EV than you might think.
  44. Zejety

    Zejety Well-Known Member

    You accusations sound pretty reasonable. Especially the third quote.
    However I'm not sure about him. His newer posts, albeit mostly quotes + "I agree" read town to me.

    I'd still like to hear from PI why he votes for Golden. His posts in this regard were "I prefer seeing a person's reaction to my vote before I ask them questions." and "Good to know that I'm not the only one to feel this way. [feeling Golden is a witch but knowing nothing to back it up]"...
  45. Zejety

    Zejety Well-Known Member

    Haven't we decided in earlier games that hinting at things is -EV?
  46. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    re: Posts. My main motivation for playing this witchhunt was that I figured it'd be awesome to really keep up with just 13 people and such!

    How things have actually gone: My insane aunt is here. da2 demo just came out. I am off work over half term (this is bad from a time to catch up on witchhunt perspective, I am an IT tech). People talked me into playing WoW. Some buddies are at home over halfterm, etc.

    So uh, basically, # of posts is not going to be significant until halfterm is over (next monday). I will try to post daily (or at least every couple of days), but I am not really getting time to go over stuff as I actually wanted to do. I do not mind bailing out and getting replaced, but I am also happy staying if people would rather I did that. (it seems better to bail out early rather than late if one is going to do so, so up to people here. please do post if you want me to get replaced, I will not be offended or anything)

    -

    re: Golden/Arkaal. Arkaal's posts come through to make golden look remarkably witchy, but I think Arkaal is very capable of doing that if he is a witch himself. I am pretty willing to lynch golden but I also want us to keep an eye on Arkaal going forth.

    re: priest. I think that with the amount of people who were pro check bbobjs and stated so vocally, priest must check him, or witches get to narrow down priest somewhat.

    Golden: do you have a link to the "who posted" handy? =(
  47. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    nvm re: priest. Apparently I remember posts that did not happen, or something. Also potential for town misdirection, so whatever.
  48. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

  49. Arkaal

    Arkaal Member

    See, when I read a post is that all quotes + "I agree", I see scum trying to appear town without helping town.

    Not convinced, but I don't care. No point in discussing it, because we have literally no way to control it, and it's +EV over lynching town. I would like to hear the logic after the game, though.

    ------------------------
    Posts
    Arkaal's Vote Tally (14 Votes, 8 is majority)

    Lynch Votes:
    Archon Shiva: 3 (aerinon, bbobjs, Lump)
    Claytus: 1 (Archon Shiva)
    Ehrgeix: 1 (Golden119)
    Golden119: 4 (Arkaal, Claytus, Ithaldir, Prime Intellect)
    Prime Intellect: 1 (RoieTRS)
    RoieTRS: 1 (Romdeau)
    Zejety: 1 (AlexSierra)

    Abstaining: 2 (Ehrgeix, Zejety)
    ------------------------
  50. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    Ah, ty.

    re: golden (what do you think of bottom 2 and top 2 posters). I am ignoring myself for this post.

    Romdeau + RoieTRS both do not seem to post much generally (wh5). Romdeau's posting seems consistent with wh5 when he was innocent, and I have no reason to suspect he's a witch (or to suspect he's not a witch, really). Pretty much the same for Roie but with much less certainty. Nothing makes me think they are more than 3/13 witch so far.

    I already talked about Ithaldir, and have pretty much kept that impression. I think bbobjs is innocent, but I am not at all sure (60% innocent, say. like 80% before the "btw priest might not want to check me after all" post). So like way more innocent than most people, but still witchy enough for me to be worried about because if I'm like HEY HE'S INNOCENT and then he's really a witch it's all arg.

    Golden: Why did you ask me about these people? And why non-specifically (i.e., top/bottom two posters rather than x, y, z)?

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