~/* Witchhunt 5 *\~

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Chocolate Pi, Jan 3, 2011.

  1. RoieTRS

    RoieTRS Active Member

    My play was not the best... I have no way of justifying my stupid "garcia town" posts. That was just stupid. I guess I had really big suspicion that garcia was miniwitch after checking him and I was trying to bait him into joining coven early. I barely follow my logic but it was still pretty dumb imo.

    I requested amp d1 or d2 (i dont remember) because I was hoping for protection or something that would bait the witches in some way depending on what I rolled. I knew bbobjs was SOMETHING big and I knew that sotek was also something big, I would have guessed bbobjs was diviner or medium and sotek was priest, so had I gotten some cool protectother buff that night (if i were amped) i would have protected one of them. I had no way to confirm myself, I was hoping to get some good info to dump though.

    me wanting turtle for mayor was just that i had a pretty positive read on him and a mayor that was town would be better than any other mayor. Nothing more to it than that.

    defending sleb... i just wanted him to go on about gambler and get a bit more info out of him. I immediately felt myself over extending so i backed off.

    I dunno what else to say beyond that, I feel i got pretty boring rolls and the cool rolls i got were wasted on dumb things.
    http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/WqDZSd3FumR
  2. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    Roie, ty for that video in that QT-it made my day.
  3. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    The moment it was revealed that there were no lovers, I just...
    I was crushed.
    And the only good that came out of it actually backfired completely and somehow led Chad to get two roles right.

    Seriously, why is no lovers even a thing?
    Like, I went out of my way as cupid (which I felt useless as anyways) to DO something just to find out that the enchantress was like "LOLNOPE"
  4. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    I read the QT. Prime Minister Crazy Cupid is exactly how I felt.

    I was dead on with many of my reads, though (except for spygeix, looool), so I guess it's ok.
  5. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    I still hate you guys for going with mayor instead of no-mayor, btw
  6. icewolf34

    icewolf34 Well-Known Member

    PI, I thought you played well and your mayorship run had me panicking. I'd be curious to hear which posts were gambits, which were actually accidents, etc.

    I think a Martyr Mayor would have been really devastating and I was actually 100% convinced that's what was going on. I mean, wait for N2 to trigger anything, then you clear two townies in one night and stop N2NK. Then witches get a guessing game of what days they can actually try to NK anyone vs. what days GAs would protect you. I felt that mayor martyr would be pretty game-ending for that reason.

    In general I agree with Chad that this ruleset has a ton of ways for town to passively clear people and form scary blocs. You can bounce NK off of traveller, survivalist, gambler, lovers, GA protect, martyr, BOD, mayor power. Silencer rule seems like it has a good chance of ending up in a long endgame.
    ----

    Most frustrating thing about this game: I had a pretty good feeling that there were no lovers, because it's pretty obvious that lovers aren't good for witches. So if we could have made it "lovers confirm or else PI is lying", we probably could have gotten either Sotek or PI lynched. And I felt I was really close to swinging that at some points early game, but couldn't quite get there.
  7. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Cupid reveal was 100% a gambit.
    I lied about how many times they would have been amp'd and was hoping that they would pick up on it and maybe have one claim saying as much.
    Then I would have admitted that it all was a huge gambit and it didn't work and I'm actually some important info role blah blah blah (I would have gone off of my reads on Ehrgeix and Ithaldir).
    Turns out there weren't lovers, SO that never happened.

    But it turns out no one thought I was cupid anyways? Huh.
  8. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    Also, I thought Prime Intellect was 99% judge since

    - Judge can confirm himself
    - Judge amp is sosososososo good

    And wtf, at the start of every day I'm like lynch acidile
    then zzzzz
  9. icewolf34

    icewolf34 Well-Known Member

    I mean, after Cupid didn't counterclaim I was relatively sure you were Cupid. It makes sense that the witches were confused though, because of the priest-amp stuff.
  10. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    yeah, I have said this several times in the past, and am glad Pi frinally agrees with me, but there should be 0 options at setup. There will always be a right answer and if the answer is that you don't use some option, then it's just a waste of rules space.

    Also, Cupid/Enchantress/Spy dynamic is the worst thing ever, from a gameflow standpoint. Enchantress doesn't want to claim, but witches don't want to nk lovers, but they don't know who lovers are unless enchantress claims. So we have to do this "I am not the enchantress or herfderf is not a lover" FOR EVERY ROUTINE NIGHTKILL. I actually drew spy suspicion by begging the Enchantress to roleclaim just so we could stop doing that.

    Speaking of which, no-lovers accidentally made koopatroop Most Suspicious Witch. I mean, people were saying things like "I think Arkaal is priest, but I also think he's a lover so we cant' nk him" and koopa doesn't tell us there are no lovers until like two nights later? So shady.
  11. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Yeah, I was hoping for there to be LOVERS to HELP ME OUT in my gambit.
  12. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    I gotta sleep, but before I do...
    Fun fact: I think this was actually posted before I dumped Demon info in coven chat. My thought at the time was "Damn right I do! Shut up you Spy!"
  13. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    haha, yeah. There was another remark that I don't remember atm, I called koopa out on it in witch QT and he said something like "I'm trying to seem town" and I actually posted in my QT "I BELIEVE YOU ARE TOWN"
  14. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    Also: 28 players is too many players
  15. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    yeah

    not only because of difficulty managing everything but also because it's harder to find replacements. the nice thing about a slightly smaller game is that there would be like 3 people clamoring for acidile's spot
  16. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    btw, read the deadguy QT, lol at the people complaining about the amount of info Demon gets

    Town has two guys that are told "this guy is town" at the beginning of the game. Scum have 0 people confirmed at the beginning of the game.

    Town has a guy who can refute any fakeclaim. Scum has one role that aids fakeclaims that may or may not even be in the game

    Scum bounces a nightkill, someone now has a big neon sign that says "THIS GUY IS TOWN" but leaves witches with no idea whether that person is a good target or a bad target to nk in the future, and probably won't find out because now that person will never be pressured by town again. Martyr has a similar effect if only one person is nked.

    Town has a guy that knows 5 witches at game start without doing anything.

    Town's strongest two info roles have a guy that can back them up and that witches have little way of ever finding out.

    Town has two people who can generally tell exactly how many witches are dead.

    Town has 6 major info roles, and that's not counting stuff like amped judge, amped diviner, aco/correspondent, gambler rolling a check, etc etc. In a 28 person game.

    If anything, witches have too little info compared to town, which is perverse when you consider the numbers advantage town has. No wonder the only reason they finally won a game is because everything else turned out to be overpowered.
  17. koopatroop

    koopatroop Active Member

    PI,

    I was fairly convinced you actually were cupid, and so was icewolf when he joined the coven. I even argued to be one half of the silence target with the other half you priest to dispel the priest <-> cupid theory, that I was worried we were about to throw the game away on.

    Also, we were so convinced you were martyr that we un-optimized two NKs. We actually wanted Fry alive as confirmed town and turtle we were convinced wasn't an info-role.

    So you were a big factor in the game :)
  18. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    Fun fact: If self wasn't a target for extra life, I would have given it to turtle n1.
    I gave it to myself because I thought you guys might think I was some squishy role and off me.
  19. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    Another annoying thing about playing witches:

    Diviner guesses a role wrong, he misses out on a check. Silencer guesses a role wrong, he alignment-confirms three people.

    Bard amps a witch, town misses out on an amp. Witch drinks a potion at the wrong time, witch is dead.

    Town mislynches, the game is balanced around that. Coven mis-sacs, gg town wins.

    DOB hits priest, you have 5 other info roles. DOB hits enchantress, good luck ever sorting that out.

    Town lynches someone who lives, they can either lynch again or just wait for info roles to check them, and if it's scum they definitely ate an extra life. Scum bounces an nk, they just confirmed a town and may not have even made any progress, and it might not even give role info if bard is alive.

    Town says something stupid and suspicious, there's often an info role that can back them up anyway. Scum jumps in front of a lynch train, there's no saving him.

    This is what I meant by the "hand grenades" crack in that chatlog I posted. Any mistake you make as scum is far worse than the town equivalent, and Spy pushes the game even further in that direction. No wonder scum are stressed the entire time and eventually end up going for destructive, game-ending plays.
  20. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    In this game scum went for the spyhunt alternate win condition
    Instead of the 'get mislynches' win condition

    Scum would still have lost if they went for the mislynches
  21. koopatroop

    koopatroop Active Member

    Being as I was the least suspected witch (other than stupid priest check) I feel vindicated in my strategy.
  22. koopatroop

    koopatroop Active Member

    lol

    Sotek's theory for brainof7 train which ended up outing several witches was based on entirely false premises

    Foo's remark that I somehow either slipped or signaled that priest was amped was not true.

    The reason we picked Sotek Traveler was false.

    It seems like all good play is by accident.
  23. koopatroop

    koopatroop Active Member

    oh btw, I had a major slip in that -Y- had mentioned not having time for the game and than I accidentally said that firewind replaced him. This could have outed 3 witches. Good thing it wasn't caught.
  24. Golden119

    Golden119 Member

    GG everyone.

    Here is the Mad Scientist scribblings: http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/MBB7GcHxHcC

    Comments:

    I didn't realise that Demon was spoon-fed who checked who, rather than just a list of "who was checked". My early checks probably would have given me away if someone looked closely enough, as they were based around who posted pro and anti Golden messages.

    I threw out some random questions (D2?) because I was a bit tired of being an observer, and I was immediately accused of witchcraft. It's hard to understand the concept of what is a "bad question" to ask, especially as the answer can always be a lie or no comment.

    Priest/Bbobjs made some comments about "I had a load of info, then witches started lining up in the gunsights, then spy revealed, then there was no point" - I felt the same.

    Until Spy reveal, I was having fun and looking forward to my own reveal :)

    Cheers all

    Gordon / Golden
  25. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    Ok, to guys that offered me condolences thanks it meant a lot even if I didn't respond. I only briefly skimmed net after my dad's death and I didn't want to disrupt the game.

    Someone mentioned in witch chat about me bluffing about this. This offended me a bit; I wouldn't dream joking about someone close to me dying let alone lie about it. Though in hindsight I probably helped witches more by posting what happened and switching.

    As for defending brainof7 I really thought he was town and hoped that either I'll gain his trust or get him lynched before me (hopefully prevent him getting lynched and lynching someone else). I was really surprised he turned out witch. sleb(I think) did a great job filling in for me. My bet on Spy was Eghreix or Chad (though I was leaning more toward Chad being spy).

    EDIT: That being said GG everyone. I think the game could have gone either way if the Chadlencer was ever successfully lynched.
  26. AlexSierra

    AlexSierra New Member

    Note to self: Always lynch Chad D1

    Another note to self: Always trust Sotek.
  27. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    Didn't they do that once to Chad when he was a power town?

    Note to self: Always lynch Sotek :p
  28. Archon Shiva

    Archon Shiva Well-Known Member

    Blargh.

    I agree with many of the aforementioned sentiments, and want to further insist that stun-lock is not a fun dynamic.

    Congrats witches, though! In all those games put together, there have been some great efforts and some excellent plays, and I'm happy you finally won one.

    For the record, koopa, I had you pegged as scum the moment you said I was you most-town player. Blame Shiri.
  29. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    A lot of the newer players played really, really well. Better than me. Well played!
  30. Benoit Haché

    Benoit Haché Member

    sleb-Y-Lock is a consireably funny name imo

    also this game uh...yay witches won? Still headdesking that brainof7 didn't get lynched ever and town should've pressured acidwindion based on everything they did and didn't do (even ignoring the nightwhomp)


    also endgame was lame imo :(
  31. Ehrgeix

    Ehrgeix Well-Known Member

    This was me - very sorry. There was just some conversation like "I need to do hacking stuff, want to quit" - "no! don't quit, it would be obvious you are a witch!", and then you posted that in the main thread and I kind of thought you wanted to make something look convincing to town. Sorry if I seemed horror insensitive - I lost my own father and it is pretty bad. Hope you are ok. =(
  32. icewolf34

    icewolf34 Well-Known Member

    Glad to see you back -Y-.

    I think we might as well consolidate all WH5 reflections in this thread. I'll say again that mayor Martyr would have been completely devastating: confirming two guys, wasting NK, and possibly confirming more with GA protect after that.

    Also I feel that deterrents are not the best way of balancing the game. In the past we've had werewolf, which was supposed to stop spyclaim because town needs spy to kill WW. Instead spy claimed anyways and just ignored werewolf. This time you have silencer, which is supposed to be the ultimate deterrent and maybe only used once or twice in the endgame. Instead the endgame just ended up starting on like D5.

    Would love to hear ChocoPi summary/reflections!
  33. Fry

    Fry Well-Known Member

    *headdesk* please stop calling this the jiaflu rule, like at least put air-quotes around it or something

    I keep saying this, and noone listens to me. Also, lol at juxtaposition with the other thing I quoted above
  34. Logo

    Logo Well-Known Member

    What if silencer was something more like...

    Potion: Gain an extra life. On successful silence gain an extra life up to a maximum of 2 lives.

    It makes him tough/really hard to kill mid-late game if spy is dead, but lets town keep playing and they can pick off necro/demon/warlock/etc. Without demon then the end game becomes harder for the silencer.

    I'd also change the necro or warlock potion so that removing the silencer or demon doesn't take 4NKs.

    Also in this version enchantress, assassin, and miniwitches are just fodder for silencer more than anything which is kinda silly.

    Right now the silencer he only needs to know 3-5 roles to accurately kill the entire town if necro+demon is alive, especially since he can use his own coven mates as filler.

    DOB and cata are the only things that would be able to kill silencer directly until he mis-guesses and Warlock could redirect DOB if he's not amped.

    Also maybe spy should keep witch powers + make it so silencer can't target witches. That way the spy can't be mechanically confirmed, but to stay hidden he would have to do some really really anti-town things.

    All good play is accidental because when you guys realize something would be good play you over-think it and end up doing the exact opposite.
  35. brainof7

    brainof7 Member

    This is what I thought too, especially after he said "I can out the whole coven N1"

    Judge amp + reads might be able to do this
  36. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    Close to 100% of this is wrong

    People kept offering themselves as Silencer bait in coven chat which is silly. Silencing town + witch is more likely to go off but it also increases the number of silences needed to win the game so it's a wash. The only way it can mathematically help is if x role NEEDS to die 100% or if necromancer is alive to feed dead role info (so the "blind" guesses become less blind)

    Potioned Enchantress is a huge thorn in the side for town; we played with a weaker version in previous games and it was OP. Assassin is also pretty powerful in worlds where Spy doesn't know who he is and relay that info to town.
  37. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    I have been lynched 0 times without a spy reveal. I was once DOB killed by Fry day 1 because Fry thinks "pressuring Fry" is a scumtell. ;)

    EDIT: Correction: in garciahunt I trueclaimed DOB and started a train on myself
  38. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    well, least suspicious at all would be if you pressured actual witches and got them lynched

    I mean, literally no one came after me seriously until my disasterous reveal, and even sleb and his most obvious witch move ever was able to tease out some role info for silencer food. Witches have to win somehow and I don't think they win by pretending to be town so hard that town actually plays correctly.

    Especially since you chose to make yourself mechanically useless by choosing no-lovers; you should have been the witch most willing to accidentally eat a lynch for the cause.
  39. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    Yeah this was my belief too. "Mislynch, Mislynch, Mislynch, Nolynch" and I still feel like I have my back against the wall unless spyhunt. :(
  40. aerinon

    aerinon Member

    Fun game! I think I got in on this on D5, but I think I'm going to take part of the blame for being part of the catalyst for the spy-hunting strategy. When I got in, I saw that the witches were in a pretty good state. 2 mis-lynches, 4 successful night kills, but looking at the Demon's info it looked like town wasn't going to be mislynching anytime soon (like ever). It was apparent to me that as soon as town got finished with sleb on D6 that Priest or Mad Scientist could easily break the game open. When I was doing thread trawling, I came up with enough evidence to support that Demon info was accurate. Witches were also somewhat hurt and disorganized by replacements, but that kept the spy-paranoia down since it is hard to spy-hunt when everyone isn't present.

    Anyway, I think I jumped on Chad with some random "that advice you gave to me seems anti-wtich" and it was (see coven logs) but I think that finally got witches thinking. I agreed to wait a day or two to see if the situation improved while the town lynched sleb. (There was really no option except to throw him under the bus.) But I think that got Chad thinking that spy had to go soon and when Koopa revealed no lovers, well, yeah, pretty suspicious, but I logicked my way around it, saying that no lovers was probably for the best anyway and finally I could see a defense that we could use after sleb was gone: a couple witches claimed lovers and ride the PI cupid train... looks like that one was riddled with potholes anyway... oh well

    As this was coalescing in my mind, Chad whiffed his initial Silence out and brought us to a very interesting (for witches) endgame. (Which I am partly to blame, I didn't give the credence I should've to Sukaeto-spiritualist. As a newbie, I didn't realize the haunt/spiritualist connection would make him so sure. I also championed the PI priest theory when I found a post where PI suspiciously singles out Chad as a maybe on D3, thinking it was priest-acolyte communication, definitely thought too hard on that.) After spyclaim, town chose completely correctly to lynch me. Necro fills any hole on the witch team plus gets NK info. Also, completely agree with Chad that Silencing witches is a wash when you don't have assassin or necro power to balance out the whiffed silences & losing witch numbers.

    I figured out early on that Chad only needed one guess + one guess for every missed scry to win. It seems they got three guesses and one missed scry and thus ended the game a day early. Anyway, I was just getting into the game and it blows up. Partly my fault, but I hope the next one will be as fun.

    Now, a few comments on game design. Spy is way overpowered. I think everyone knows this. Spy knows 5 witches at game start. If there is not something extremely overpowered that he keeps in check by not revealing, then early reveal is way too powerful. Combined with the fact that witches have every incentive to spyhunt and that there was a way to do it, I think this was inevitable. Witches can put off spyhunting as long as town keeps mislynching, but as the info roles start to gain momentum after a few days, its spyhunt or bust for witches.

    Various solutions to spy problems:

    1. Potion powers. I like this idea in general, but it obviously can make for a horrific endgame. With some re-working of the powers, I think this can be made to work better and I would be willing to try it again. Even as town. This is a deterrent option. And most people agree that deterrents aren't as fun

    2. Splitting the coven. I think this idea should be explored more. In this game spy knew 5 of 7 witches (and the most important ones at that) and our spy stuck around long enough to find out all of them. I think splitting the coven further and having important roles out there would make the game more interesting. Witches will need more powerful info roles to make this work though so they can avoid killing each other.

    3. Anonymizing the coven. Witches post as roles instead of as themselves and so aren't completely sure of their identity. Again, witches will need more numbers, coven splitting and better info roles to make this work. Witches could share info freely relating to their role but would be more limited in discussing who to vote for during the day. This could be a good option, but I think the difference between expert spy (one who watching posting habits) and newbie spy might make this too easy/hard for witches.

    Flip side of this, I think witches need a good way to identify and silence the spy when playing well, I think silent spy death should be a more common occurrance than spyclaim... not sure how to make that work though.

    Issue #2: Protection, extra lives, and amp'ing. Wow town is pretty dang powerful. I think mislynching strategy is not optimal for witches. Spyhunting is, thus exposing selves and spy early is best for witches. Seems not fun for town though. Better solution, make mislynching a more viable strategy. I think this mean nerfing town (and witches) accordingly.

    Issue #3: Player elimination. I think I like the GA mechanic and I think ghosts are the right way to go to keep exposed witches in the game. Ghosts' ability needs to matter in the endgame like the GA's ability and not become obsolete once spyclaim happens. I discovered that newbie witch in GA chat has to be really careful not to help town. I think I accidentally brought GA's attention to the fact that witches had a good role read on Roie and then they swtiched to bbobjs which caused a NK failure. Spy, of course, backed me up (that's how I knew I made a mistake). Needs to be a big neon sign: exposed witches in GA chat, SHUT UP. I just like to talk too much and GA chat was the only outlet given that ghost chat was boring.

    Wow, this is a longer post than I intended. Got a lot of my thoughts that I've been bottling up though. Can't wait to see other's thoughts:

    Here's my/acidiile's/firewind's crypt. Good luck making any sense of firewind's crazy theories: http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/99HmjiJXn5Qay
  41. Ithaldir

    Ithaldir Member

    What? You managed to check every single Witch in the minimun amount of days possible, how's that not being good at it?

    That's probably right, btw, I'm still wondering: Fry, who would you have killed at the end of D3?

    I kinda did, yeah; I was making the joke anyway and I interchangeably write in either American English or British English so I went with the word ("knickers") that made the most sense given the circumstances and hoped noone had noticed that sometimes I write "favourite".

    But to be quite honest I was surprised that it actually kinda worked as much as it did.

    Good thing we didn't go after Priest though, since getting "bbobjs is the Priest" would have been quite useless. Btw, awesome read Foo. You're now my default example of how a single player can figure out something while the whole coven overlooks it completely.

    This is actually a common mistake, I was accused of this last game (though, in my defense, the beans had already been spilled by the time I got to GA chat.) In your case I don't think it was that bad, since Spy was probably going to point it out anyway, and even if he didn't he already had posted our reads along with his Spy claim. I'm not sure how GAs missed that in the first place.
  42. aerinon

    aerinon Member

    Yeah, but since the GAs plus the Spy hadn't pointed it out yet, it's a mistake to point it out first. This is why I like GAs. Makes you feel like there are some things you can do to affect the game still. Even if my optimal move is pretty much shut up. The potential for witches to screw up in GA chat is pretty large though, I guess that just goes along with what Chad was saying that witch mistakes are less forgiving than town mistakes. Its a consequence/balance of having the best info (who your teammates are) at game start.
  43. x1372

    x1372 Active Member

    And thus, the "x1372 must be scum or vanilla" rule of witch hunt continues on. I hunt the vampires and don't afraid of anything.

    For those who care about my truly badass quicktopic, here it is.

    http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/jkCEyTrhNj3w

    I was so focused on the game. So focused. You don't even KNOW.
  44. Logo

    Logo Well-Known Member

    It's not a wash. It's 2 town (Silence + NK) for 1 witch and you get another necro scry. Enchantress is good to not silence provided she potions and has lovers, that's true. You could also double silence witches (say LW + enchantress or whatever) to get a 100% silence via 2 dark scrys and with the 2 intervening NKs and 3rd dark scry (4 dead town for 2 witches + 1 dark scry) you've already as is narrowed down the possible roles of the remaining town quite a bit.

    And it does matter if necro is alive as that does change the values.

    I would agree that there are ways the game can play out where the other witches are strong and what not, but it still seems like it's more of, "Oh shit out silencer/demo/neco died. Now we have to rely on miniwitch."

    Also assassin is more of useful that's true and he'd be NKed not silenced anyways so yeah he shouldn't have been in that list.

    Isn't this what we want (not the spy hunt part, but the back against the wall part)? The less slippery slope the game has the more days are interesting and exciting and the less that are lame duck. If spyhunt was a way to comeback as witches rather than the way to flat out win it could work well for both sides and not just town.
  45. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect Well-Known Member

    I really hate you for this btw koopa.
    This post had me convinced you were a lover up until you revealed that you thought I was martyr.
  46. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    You think what we want is to be kicking town's ass and still feel like we need to break the game to even have a chance?

    (witches are not allowed to win ever)
  47. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    Re: silencing witches, even assuming silencer hits 0% of the time without a demon scry (false assumption), then silencing witches is trading 2 day cycles of:

    -miss silence, witch lynched, nk, silence two town, nk (1 witch for 4 town 4/1 kill ratio)

    for:

    -silence witch+town, nk, silence witch+town, nk (2 witches for 4 town, or 2/1 kill ratio)

    If silencer can hit silences without scries, then silencing witches is even dumber unless town can actually threaten to lynch silencer. it's a last-second desperation move to either keep silencer alive after the tanks are dead, or make sure a critical role like Traveller or DOB gets killed asap

    So you're right that it's not a wash; I was actually doing the math wrong and it turns out it's worse than I thought until the tanks are dead, but better after that (since it's 1/1 if we just sit there and let town lynch). Interesting.
  48. Logo

    Logo Well-Known Member

    Yes, yes it is a last-move after you've run out of other options like ending the day, letting warlock redirect, and having necro take over for silencer. I thought I mentioned it as such and if I didn't, I meant to! Though your calculations don't factor in that in the 2nd scenario the warlock is still alive to allow for a day/night of 4:1 to happen later on. It's not like silencing a miniwitch causes warlock to disappear. It also doesn't account for the fact that the witches gain a non-trivial amount of information they can use to be more accurate in kills later on.

    If your choice during the day is a chance to risk miss-silence and get necro/demon/silencer killed or silence for 1 kill + NK + non-trivial amount of information for a better chance to further silence then why would you ever choose the former?

    At some point you're likely to face the choice of guessing and risk missing causing an important lynch that stops the silence/nk/silence train or have 100% chance to hit and delay the gamble until there are less town/roles that you have to figure out. I can't think of any reason where witches have a higher chance to win by doing the former over the latter regardless of if the witches are known or not.
  49. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    If one of those roles is in danger of getting killed, no, you never do.

    if it's warlock life or even necro-warlock's extra life with warlock left alive afterward, you try to get lucky because the upside is needing fewer successful kills to take over the lynch vote. And a whiffed silence implicitly increases your chances of hitting the next one if demon/necro are alive.
  50. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    also, not 100% certain this is right, but this was my thinking for a lot of the endgame: Witches need a certain number of blind guesses to win. Because town has no incentive to reveal any roles at all once entire coven is revealed, we already know which guesses are more or less likely to work. So if missing a guess is 100% witches lose, while correctly silencing scry target + guess is 100% witch win, witches might as well just try to hit the guess because it's not like they have any other way to catch up. This was in part due to dead necro also; if necro is alive and feeding us the roles of nk'ed players, then the odds on a guess go up as the # of players gets smaller, while demon's info gets less reliable as playerlist gets smaller because he can accidentally scry dead roles.

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