~/* Witchhunt 5 *\~

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Chocolate Pi, Jan 3, 2011.

  1. Logo

    Logo Well-Known Member

    But if he scrys a dead role that still helps, just not as much. If you have X roles and Y players and have to make a match based on a guess then your odds are still better if it's X-1 roles and Y-1 players (what you get by getting an NK and a dark scry). If necro is alive it's even better at X-2 roles and Y-1 players.

    I see the 2 situations like this...

    1 known + (X players, Y roles guess) -> NK + missed dark scry -> (X-1 players, Y-1 roles guess), (X-1 players, Y-1 roles guess)
    1 know + 1 witch -> NK + missed dark scry -> (X-1 players, Y-1 roles guess), (X-1 players, Y-1 roles guess)

    As you can see you push out your guesses to better odds. Eventually you need to make up that guess, but it happens at the end when you have very few players and very few roles.
  2. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    Scry on a dead guy may not be useless, but if I know NOW that he didn't scry a dead role, then that's potentially better than waiting until later days and possibly having to act on a less useful scry.

    Like, if there's one guy whose role I think I know 65% and one guy whose role I know 100%, it's quite likely that's better odds than I'm going to get going around silencing witches and having to get through a likely day where I have a dead guy scry and have to guess both. Even if both guesses are upwards of 75%, that means I traded a 60% chance of outright winning the game for a 56% chance. Even bumping those to 80% each is a net loss (and if you think demon scries without necro help are going to get us higher than that before we hit the "do or die" point then I'm just going to disagree) If we're presuming that one missed silence = gg, then prolonging the number of decisions (and therefore adding more things that can go wrong) is just harmful as a rule.
  3. Logo

    Logo Well-Known Member

    Ah I see my mistake and why I was not quite following you. I wasn't giving enough consideration to how killing your own witch affects the # of townies you need to kill to reach majority. So I can see it being more situational than I previously thought, but there are quite a few roles that are worth ensuring are dead because they could ruin your end game via majority if left alive like Judge*, DOB, Survivalist, Traveler, Gambler, Bard (depending on who else is alive), or Wizard.

    *Actually I'm curious about this, if it comes down to judge + 1 witch town wins right (No lynch -> judge kill). What about leeroy + witch or DOB + witch?
  4. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    i assume that's town win, draw, draw

    btw, it seems easy to forget about the numbers and how they affect the day vote. See also: witches being worried about leeroy going off on sleb for some reason.
  5. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    QFT. Yes, scry chances of missing start to soar as unconfirmed nks go up. Fortunately, witches start winning the lynch just as scry hits coin-flip 50% (in this game anyway and I think a missed scry decreases odds of future missed scry significantly so that number is bit off.) A live Necro of course would've totally helped out. For this game the coven needed 2 guesses, one just because of the numbers and another because they scryed for Bard. They apparently got three guesses. Easily winning the game.

    Just finished reading the end-game coven chat that icewolf posted. I tend to agree with him, once you get DoB/Traveller, out of the way to prevent NKs from sucking, I think my preferences for scrying go BoD, and then mechanically confirmed alive roles like priest or MS (but it looks like they might've stopped checking after a while just so you couldn't be sure they were still alive) Gambler was a good choice though and Survivalist is too, because of extra lives. I think I might put Leeroy on there but only if bard status is unknown, else you can wait until you get control of the lynch vote. You definitely scry for Wizard IFF you have control of the lynch vote and the game ain't over.

    I think both Leeroy and DOB are ties since everyone dies. (Leeroy kills self and witch and DOB kills witch when murdered.)
  6. brainof7

    brainof7 Member

    O also, I just realized that my Sotek/traveler D1 read was spot on!
  7. sukaeto

    sukaeto New Member

    YES! Sotek and I were just talking about this about an hour ago.
  8. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    sotek and I brainstormed something like this shortly after WH1. It never took off for whatever reason.
  9. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    It failed because CPi doesn't like it :p

    My idea is to give town two "real" info roles (Priest and weaker-Spy - probably have each witch post in witchchat as "Figure in a [COLORED] Robe". The big drawback is it results in a lot of conditional voting :() and a few non-info info roles (Diviner - but nerfed AS YOU WILL SEE, Spiritualist, and stuff.)

    And then ... each witch gets a townrole. Diviner can check him as that, he may or may not have the power (I lean towards it, since hahaha mechanics!)

    And there's no devours/silencings/obliterations/exsanguinations/rolekillings/etetcetc.

    The claim prevention is that it doesn't do ANY GOOD - you try to claim to escape lynch and are liable to eat it anyway. Massclaim just gets priest killed, etc etc.
  10. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    conditional nightkills are atrocious; I will unconditionally oppose anything that results in them

    one reason nights take longer than anyone would like is because witches have to postpone a lot of discussion until after day is over because FFFFF spy
  11. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member


    Not disagreeing with this, but there's a reason why both our scries and our shots in the dark went from this pool of roles. it went:

    -Necro confirmed judge dead
    -Scry DOB, guess Traveller hit
    -Scry bard, discover he's already dead, attempt Gambler/Priest silence and fail
    -Scry Gambler, successfully scry against guessed Spiritualist
    -Scry Survivalist, successfully scry against trueclaim, win game

    As to the Sotek/Traveller one in particular, that one was specifically based on the EV of various worlds rather than a strong conviction that he was the most likely hit.
  12. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    I wasn't able to use that information to actually help town. I wanted to drop hints about my theory that witches were trying to keep high post counts but I'm fairly sure I second guessed myself and never did.
  13. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    on the bright side, witches were petrified and this had a non-zero effect on the decision to hulk out on the game
  14. sukaeto

    sukaeto New Member

    'Spose I'll do what all the cool kids are doing and post a link to my QT.

    Speaking of QTs, x1372 and Chocolate Pi: the Supreme Castle QT is quite simply amazing.
  15. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    btw, my favorite play of the game: town is deadlocked between Mils and brainof7. hours before the deadline, x1372 yells at me to keep it from going to no-lynch, so I reluctantly move my vote from the scummiest witch to a mislynch.

  16. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Moderator (old) Staff Member

    Looking forward to moderator thoughts!
  17. x1372

    x1372 Active Member

    Heh. I fail witch hunt early game so hard. SO HARD YOU DONT EVEN KNOW.
  18. sukaeto

    sukaeto New Member

    Dude, you're not alone so don't worry. I had it in my mind that I would hammer whoever of brainof7 or Milski got to L-1 first. Really stupid play on my part (turned out I was late on the hammer so it didn't matter anyway - but that's besides the point.)
  19. Fry

    Fry Well-Known Member

    But I was going to judgelynch the Traveller for you
  20. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    This is interesting, why would it result in lots of conditional voting? To avoid killing witches as in: "I vote for X unless X is a witch"? Seems like it would be better have one witch propose somes names, got a couple nominations and unless someone heavily objects, kill 'em.

    Priest and Spy in the coven? Wicked. Having to ferret out two is a lot harder than just one. I assume Priest keeps his check and Spy gets a watered down version of check or something similarly nasty. This prevents witches from NKing the two most important info roles early on... might be a fun game. Also turns coven into a mini-version of the town situation. You don't know who are the interlopers and you're not sure who is who in town either. You'd almost need a priest-witch to help discover spy/priest. I'd play.
  21. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    btw, about the guys who jumped on me for the "see if you can bandwagon sukaeto" thing, here is what went down:

    -Roie starts defending sleb and aggroing on sukaeto
    -aerinon JUST REPLACED IN and was catching up on the thread
    -I suggested aerinon try defending Roie and see if he can get something started, with the assumption that he would play the confused n00b card if it didn't work

    I then go to bed, wake up to find Roie had completely imploded and go to witchchat only to have everyone yelling at me that this is a bad idea. WELL OF COURSE IT IS NOW, YOU DERPS. We all knew he was wrong, so sitting there waiting for town to figure it out themselves and then freaking out at the idea of having confused town before that is pretty nutty imo.
  22. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    Oh yeah, totally nutty. It was calculated. I didn't have any good reads on spy except noting that Koopa and Ehrg were quietish. I saw the opportunity to get some other coven to give spy reads and intentional jumped on with flimsy reasoning. You defended yourself quite well while casting suspicion on Koopa. Ithadir expressed some doubts about you which prompted me to see how well I could confirm Demon checks while reading. Koopa defended himself well and came out with no lovers eventually, and I guess Ehrg just stayed out of it (that sly spy, I guess I should've caught on to that.) It was my intention to continue to pressure various people in the coven to see if we could get spy reads. I mean, if it works for town, why shouldn't it work for coven?

    We had enough witches left and a good number of town dead that I figured that with potion powers that we had excellent chances of winning if the spy claimed. Chad's failed silence threw a wrench into my plans because spy-assassin made sure we couldn't get the day ended without the town lynching me. It was basically my worst-case scenario in that plan, oh well, we still won I guess.
  23. brainof7

    brainof7 Member

    ya, I really like how x1372 did that and had me survive day 2!

    I pointed out in witch chat somewhere that someone could bring up how it looked like he was defending me and stuff
  24. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    Yeah, in retrospect, my mistake was thinking i had to confirm myself before pushing ehrgeix into a confirm. My plan, after the silence went off, was to run back to witchchat, yell "NOBODY POTION YET" and then have sleb say in thread, "Junior Witch, we know you who are, and we think the spy is either dead or you. End the day or be nightkilled." Then regardless of the result I would explain ehrgeix wasn't in the clear yet and that if he didn't assassinate someone first thing in the morning i would Silence him. I seriously didn't expect that silence to fail at all; freaking sukaeto and his amazing confidence level...

    As we figured out in chat later, the actual optimal play is for me to just go into witchchat and say "Hey guys, I know how we can 100% reveal spy today" and try to convince you all to make Ehrgeix confirm before me.
  25. aerinon

    aerinon Well-Known Member

    Yeah, that would've been much better.
  26. turtle88222

    turtle88222 New Member

    So I was sick the last few days, so I'm late to post-game discussion. :mad:

    My Vigilante Batcave QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/ZJUGxygDsV8
    GA QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/zZCGHQktEEPhQ

    You won't find anything useful in them through.

    Anyway, this was my first online mafia type game. They're fun, but the time commitment is too much for me.

    Thanks Chocolate Pi for hosting, and everyone for playing!

    Gamewise, I can't believe witches thought I was Dirty Mad Priest. Explains why they killed me first. But really? I had no clue my few posts managed to do that.

    Koopatroop, Chadmiller, icewolf34 you guys were really good at pretending to be town, so grats on that front. The others witches *cough* Firewind *cough* sorta stuck out to me.

    I agree with the general consensus, endgame was a bore, since it basically a one-man Chadmiller show.

    If I do join another one of these threads on sirlin.net, I'll probably need to change how I post, since I was too obvious I guess.

    Witches+Sotek, or anyone else, I'd be really interested in which of my posts you thought were roletells, if you have the time. And how you came to your conclusion that I was Priest or DOB or whatever power role.
  27. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    It was the post where you were all "We should talk about the vigilante's target!"
  28. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

    Yeah. Sotek figured it out better than witches did, but it was the same post in both cases.
  29. bbobjs

    bbobjs Well-Known Member

    Tip for future games, if you plan to talk about your role, make sure you hide it behind talking about 3 or 4 other roles.
  30. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Moderator (old) Staff Member

    So is Chocolate Pi going to comment
  31. Chocolate Pi

    Chocolate Pi Well-Known Member

    Sorry guys, I've been hard at work on stuff. I promise to come back and post on this before GDC hits!
  32. Golden119

    Golden119 Member

    Is GDC an asteroid? If so, please spend your time inventing space rockets instead.
  33. Chocolate Pi

    Chocolate Pi Well-Known Member

    Ok, I have Draft Chess in a public state, so I'll be able to turn attention back to WH soon-ish.
  34. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    1 week later and still no comment from CPi....busy guy I guess?
  35. Romdeau

    Romdeau Member

    To be officially commented upon Soon™.

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