*~/WITCHHUNT Game 2\~*

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Chocolate Pi, Aug 18, 2010.

  1. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    No, that helps you quite a lot - fake-claims are the domain of the JW and the WW.
    If we say "OK, Nun, you claim", well, yeah, nobody is fuckin' fake-claiming THAT.
    But if we then say "Leeroy, claim!" and it goes for a while without anyone claiming ...
    ... maybe Leeroy is a safe claim? Maybe not because we should demand proving, but ...
    And like, what next? Judge? He can KIND OF get proven, I guess, so maybe he doesn't get fake-claimed either ...
    but then ... who next? Priest, and gamble that acolyte is still around to speak up and confirm/disconfirm?

    And then after that, we've got, uh. Traveller?? and then I'm out of "safe" roles.

    Maybe we could start with survivalist, though? But then they probably fake-claim not-him via staying silent, so what good does that do.
  2. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    Here is my plan. Assuming WW is alive it is crucial we disable the enchantress and kill me ASAP. The plan I think is simple. Lynch one lover. If the lover is lynchable then I save the one we lynched, otherwise we just lynch the other lover tomorrow.

    You lose a certain townie and keep a less certain. However that way we can:
    a) be sure that surviving lover is a townie/JW
    b) be sure WW doesn't have no one to nom.

    Hole I can see: one lover being a witch might be bad for town, survivor+werewolf would waste 3 moves (if witches go on a townie rampage).
  3. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Oh, hmm, yeah, solid point.

    oh god yes.

    Brain handled it by saying "I've gotta go, I'll reveal when I get back, proxying to Sotek", which is maybe pretty good? lol, it's better than he handled just /being/ survivalist G1, which is a good sign in his favor. Almost makes me wonder if he's nun or something.

    Milski ... ok, time to dig for old posts!

    What is an IMPORTANT role at this point? I think the only important role is priest! ... oh, wait, Judge and Leeroy could win an otherwise-tied endgame for us, couldn't they?

    Yeah. And he was pretty scummy last game and was a witch, so either he improved a good bit or is not scummy ... or being WW/JW has him play differently than as witch, god why am I thinking myself in KNOTS?


    Not too hot to me! You want us able to counterclaim while we're still alive, right?
  4. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    This is not a terrible plan, but I think we should NOT do it today - it would be a better thing to do when we'd want to no-lynch tomorrow, right?

    I mean, the WW does not have us in nom-checkmate yet.
  5. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

  6. acidile

    acidile Member

    who pointed at who first in the brain + Milsk thing?
  7. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Link6616 votes Zejety
    Sotek votes Zejety
    Benoit Hache votes Zejety
    brainof7 votes Milskidasith
    -Y- votes -Y-
    Fiddly votes Milskidasith
    Sotek switches vote from Zejety to Milskidasith.
    Milskidasith votes Brainof7
    Sotek switches vote from Milskidasith to brainof7

    ^-- relevantish part of my D2 summary.
  8. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Oh. Hey. CPi!

    I have a rules question.

    If we lynch me, and -Y- saves me, does /Garcia/ die?
  9. Chocolate Pi

    Chocolate Pi Well-Known Member

    If a Lover is saved from a Lynch the other Lover doesn't die, if that is what you are asking.
  10. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    That is what I was asking.
  11. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    oh, BTW: I think at this point claiming survivalist/not-survivalist MAY be ok.

    I am pretty sure it's OK for me to claim non-survivalist, at least. (Does a survivalist survive his lover's lynching? rules questions D:)
  12. acidile

    acidile Member

    ugh. The actual accusations themselves don't really mean much here then, because it was started by Fiddly. It's pretty important to remember that JW+WW don't have coven knowledge, so Milsk was just legitimately targetting someone he thought was suspicious, regardless of role.

    Why would someone quickly accuse someone else when they are being bandwaggoned? Maybe a power role, possibly a JW/WW who is very afraid of being lynched? I can't really say it was one or the other. Was brain being particularly suspicious?

    I guess what I'm saying is, we need to look at how people acted while under pressure, and not really WHO they reacted to while under pressure.
  13. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    What? No, it was started by brain!

    Right, and his arguments are moderately reasonable, too ... ugh.

    Brain was being aggro against Zejety and Milski D1, then D2 ... let's see.

    http://forums.sirlin.net/showpost.php?p=96767&postcount=517 was D1, near the end.
    http://forums.sirlin.net/showpost.php?p=97041&postcount=734 was D2 - his vote - was AFTER Chad and I and I think one or two others said "hey, Zejety is probably lynchproof, let's not lynch him now", so ... he had a post with three guys named believed scum, one of whom was already dead, one of whom we claimed was immune. He then pressed the third guy.

    So his aggroing seems reasonable to me, unless you question his argument.
  14. acidile

    acidile Member

    Missed that, I think this dramatically decreases the chance of brain being scum. Posting such a narrow accusatory scumlist doesn't seem like something a JW/WW would do, they both are only effective if they survive a long time.

    This increases my suspicion of Milsk a little too, but at the same time if he's innocent snapping back at the person who accused him isn't too farfetch'd (hi lofo).

    I'd like to hear from koopa and Milsk I think.
  15. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    So... what, are you asking me to role reveal at this point? I do not know how good an idea that is, simply because of the obvious WW nomming everybody stuff. Still, I will defer the logic to the people who know how to do it best.
  16. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Here is my thinking.

    If we have a couple people role reveal, that may give us something vital we can WORK with.

    We can maybe tempt the WW into nomming early, in which case we could be better off...

    ... and I'm not certain about if Fiddly wants to NK revealed or not-revealed guys.

    But like, if someone fake-reveals and gets counter-claimed, we are HAPPY, like, I am afraid of our situation if they DON'T.
  17. acidile

    acidile Member

    Milski: Anyway, what are the odds on JW or WW being alive by pure numbers, exactly?
    garcia999: Well, town has to take two factions
    Sotek: oh
    Sotek: that is a good question mislki
    garcia999: and enchantress basically means -3 town automatically
    Sotek: I'll make my thinking post, then do sheer numbers post.
    acidile: milski i did the math yesterday and it was around 75-80% depending on assumptions
    SweetToes: COCKS
    acidile: now it's less probably
    garcia999: even without more town losses to lynching enchantress with protection
    acidile: also I need to post this now
    Benoit Haché: acidile gamepost
    Benoit Haché: yeah
    Benoit Haché: btw was that town-favored?
    Benoit Haché: the %s
    Benoit Haché: oh wait I am dumb
    acidile: chances of them being alive
    acidile: period
    acidile: each
  18. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    OK, question: who would be the best for the town to reveal? I mean, nun is obviously good because we have no doubt, but I am not certain about whether it favors town for anybody claim a power role when WW could nom it.
  19. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    OK so. People want to talk about alive-chance for WW and JW.

    So, let's see.

    MY view of the odds, be aware that I am a possible liar, etc etc etc.

    We have 9 alive.

    We know Fiddly is neither JW nor WW.

    I know I am not JW (the rest of you know this for yourselves too, so this number is accurate for everyone), so there are 7 candidates for one specific role of the initial 17.

    The odds of JW being DEAD are: 16/17*15/16*14/15*13/14*12/13*11/12*10/11. This simplifies to 10/17: 58.8% of her being dead, or slightly over 41.1% of her being ALIVE.

    ... actually, Fiddly's perspective is that the odds of her being alive are slightly higher! Hah! ODDS AND HIDDEN INFORMATION, DERP.

    Now, odds of WW are the same from the perspectives of all of you except Garcia.

    So, calculate for me and Garcia!

    We know there are only SIX people who can be WW.

    Odds of him being dead: 16/17*15/16*14/15*13/14*12/13*11/12

    or 11/17 = 64.7% dead, 35.3% alive. This is maybe off, though. I'm gonna post this partial work, then see what more posts have happened, then go over it again.
  20. acidile

    acidile Member

    related question: What would be the best role for JW / WW to reveal?
  21. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    I do not think we should tell them that, Acid. That would be rather stupid.
  22. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    Hey guys!

    I also roleclaim not-survivalist. So the low-cost option is not available to us, unfortunately.
  23. acidile

    acidile Member

    that's fine, but we should all think about independently then.
  24. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    Doublepost: Assuming you meant "What is the best role for the JW/WW to claim to be" and not "What is the best role for the WW/JW's odds for somebody else to claim." If you meant the second, then I dunno.
  25. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Priest. Priest favors town to get claimed.
    If WW noms priest, priest just did his fucking job! Like, we need priest to out WW, here! The only other thing he can do is out JW /after/ JW joins coven ...

    ... and that means if priest outs and does NOT get nommed, then once JW joins coven they basically /have/ to sac fiddly, which saves Garcia and I, and ... yeah.

    Nun def. good. Judge is /probably/ good, because we're gonna need a no-lynch soon anyway, so if we no-lynch tonight to let judge self-confirm that's ok.

    Survivalist may as well claim so that we can blow through him if required?

    Other roles, I am not sure. like, VH claim is a thing that should only happen by pressured guys, maybe? Hmm.
  26. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    OK, fair enough then.

    I'm Acolyte.

    Koopa is Priest.

    ...

    *Sotek's head explodes.*
  27. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    Damn I misunderstood the rules. Ok, my plan wouldn't work so its back to basics. Sacrifice the one of you and rez the other.
  28. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    OK NOBODY ELSE MAKE A ROLECLAIM, holy shit.

    Except people can still claim not-survivalist - brainof7 and x1372, I am looking at you guys.
  29. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    Ah, yes, that's what I was missing! I am bad at thinking when I just woke up. Yeah, priest reveal sounds good in basically all worlds, I had an objection but I realised it has no basis now.

    Does nun reveal look good to everyone else? Because like... what does nun roleclaim really do? It's not really a plausible roleclaim for any scum.

    I think we don't need judge to roleclaim? We just need him to be verified alive.

    I think survivalist roleclaim can maybe wait until pressure? Or maybe now? I don't really know. Well, it's a low power role so who cares about that guy
  30. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    No no no.

    Nun/survivalist do not roleclaim.

    I think if they do, we COULD be in WW checkmate.
  31. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    I was typing this post and it was posted after the milskidasith roleclaim. So uh, ignore me for now
  32. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    We'll we can reduce the number of revealed roles by sacking one lover and then I'll bit the dust for the other. You guys ok with that?
  33. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Want more talking first. Willing to consider.

    However, here's a fun question: Garcia, do you have any reason to prefer one of us living, over the other?
  34. koopatroop

    koopatroop Active Member

    Hi Milskidasith,

    May have been better to say that you are acolyte and priest is alive. Actually you should role claimed priest. And just not let them take me down. Although then Fiddly could accidentally sack me and I think it would be crazy of him to sack priest this early.

    But yeah now what. I'm not totally trusting of the lovers. I only trust revealed town.

    Worst part is, I have no information, guardian angles have no information we don't (unless JW joined the coven). This stuff should get fixed next game cause there is not much game here :p
  35. koopatroop

    koopatroop Active Member

    Anyone care to make a list of characters living and what we know about them.
  36. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    OK back to crunching odds, because of course I fucked up last time.

    Let's compute this a different way.

    We have 7 (6 for WW from garcia/my perspective) people who could be JW/WW. But wait! -Y- is "almost certainly" Martyr, and if not he's outed if JW and fucked if WW, so who cares.
    6/5. And Milski just made a claim that we can't 100% trust until koopatroop confirms, but once he does we CAN, so it's ... 4/3.

    What are the roles that those 4 or 3 could have?

    Not DOB, not Enchantress, not Warlock, not Assassin, not Demon, not priest, not acolyte, not Martyr.

    Eight roles ruled out, so 9 possible roles.

    So, odds of JW being DEAD ...
    8/9*7/8*6/7*5/6 ... so ... the middle stuff all cancels, we get 5/9 for her being dead. That's
    ... 55%? Wow, what, the odds of that happening went DOWN? Ugh, what the fuck. I hate odds calculations, sometimes.

    Odds of WW being dead, then, would be ...
    6/9. 66%? slightly higher than before?

    I am staring at my odds calculations in such doubt.

    What would they be if we had another role-claim that we Could Trust?

    5/8 for JW, 6/8 for WW. Hmmm. Man. One or two more roleclaims and we're in an interesting spot.

    That said, are we checkmated if there's no JW? Answer: derrr, yes, of course if there's no JW we're checkmated by WW, HE KNOWS THAT.

    So what if there IS a JW? well.

    P(WW|JW) is ... only 25% chance of WW being alive in a world where JW is, so odds of both being alive is like, 13 or 14%, holy shit.

    Okay. So ignoring all that.
    Say there is a JW.
    WW noms -Y-, Fiddly gets sacced by JW tonight and blows away koopatroop (I think that is definite play in that world), then WW noms Milksi, and we're at ... 5 alive, including WW, JW, and three unknowns.

    So we no-lynch, of course. Next day, WW guesses a nomming of one of the four - 25% chance of him insta-winning, 75% chance of him mis-guessing. JW has to pop him, since his odds of guessing JW go to 33% the next day. If JW doesn't pop him THEN, his odds are 50% - but the odds of getting in one of them is higher, of course. And then assuming first-chance pop by JW we're at 4 alive, one known town, one JW, two unknowns.

    We are /not/ in checkmate.

    We are /not/ in checkmate if we have one more reveal - and while -Y- is alive garcia and I both revealing would count as one reveal! One more reveal means 33% of WW victory, and then 33% chance of town victory and 33% chance of JW victory.

    Two more reveals means 50% chance of WW victory, and 0% chance of town victory.

    If there is no WW, obviously more reveals are pro-town.
  37. koopatroop

    koopatroop Active Member

    ok this is annoying. If I find any non-scum I can't reveal them. If there is a werewolf, and that isn't them. They win.
  38. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Sure thing, boss!

    ----------------------------------------

    D3 livelist:

    Sotek -- Lover
    Milskidasith - Acolyte
    -Y- - Martyr (claimed)
    acidile
    garcia1000 -- Lover
    brainof7
    Leto (koopatroop) - Priest
    x1372
    fiddly -- WITCH!! Enchantress.

    -----------------------------------------
  39. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

      1. -Y- - Martyr
      2. Sotek - lover
      3. garcia1000 - lover
      4. Milski - acolyte
      5. koop - priest
      6. acidile -??
      7. brainof7 -??
      8. x1372 - ??
  40. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    EDIT:
    1. -Y- - Martyr
    2. Sotek - lover
    3. garcia1000 - lover
    4. Milski - acolyte
    5. koop - priest
    6. acidile -??
    7. brainof7 -??
    8. x1372 - ??
    9. fiddly - Enchantress
  41. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    I don't have any strong preference, I guess? What about you?
  42. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    I would prefer to live and garcia die, because my role has potential in this endgame.

    I don't want to claim yet, though.
  43. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    Sure!

    I can roleclaim right before I die, if you guys want that. Or I could go to the grave without revealing my role if that helps town (somehow?)

    Probably better if I reveal before death though, right?

    P.S. Don't kill me yet, we want more posts from some non-confirmed role guys
  44. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    Now the question remains go after the enchantress or to wait out an wait for witches to protect koopa.
  45. acidile

    acidile Member

    I want some time to think more about the entire lovers+martyr thing too.
  46. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Staff Member

    I guess I should stop posting for now since I can't really contribute much more! For now! Unless someone else says something which I think is worth commenting on! You guys have fun!
  47. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    I hope GA aren't proxying their vote to witches.
  48. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    Def. agreed we need posts from acidile, x1372, and brainof7.

    Garcia revealing before death should happen for certain, but we want to delay it.
  49. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    Vote garcia once he claims a role
  50. Sotek

    Sotek Super Moderator Staff Member

    ok let me clarify: I want to affect when garcia's role is claimed, and I may or may not want to react, depending on what he claims. (there are roles he could claim that would result in me preferring to die, I think.)

    But, ok.

    We have one vote going! Yay!

    -----------------------------------------

    Sotek's unofficial vote tally (*5* is lynch!)

    garcia1000: 0+1 (-Y- conditional vote triggers on roleclaim)

    -----------------------------------------

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