I'm proxying my vote to sotek for D3. Do as you wish. I'm probably gonna sleep now, not sure when I'll wake up.
I really don't know what I am supposed to post here. It's pretty obvious that any role-claiming now is a terrible idea, and it's pretty clear what lynching options we have (in all of the universes where we have a decent shot at winning). I still feel that we probably AREN'T in a double JW/WW universe, partly odds, partly a semi-read on link. garcia, what are your thoughts on Sotek being a possible JW? I just want to explore the options before we lynch anybody. x1372 and brain I would like to hear from too, before we do anything.
Wow, I arguably have control of four votes. That's kind of amusing. (I mean, you could argue that garcia would have unproxied his vote, but...)
garcia999: Oh it looks like witchhunt is in the math stage! Benoit Haché: That ™ took me way too long to find btw ): garcia999: tbh I like th math stage less than the non-math stage Benoit Haché: garcia should be happy of 4 kill average Milski: Hello guys. Chump: yeah but you're not going to comeback in PS if your deck is shit Benoit Haché: makes math stage come by faster. Sotek: hi milski. acidile: I think 4 kill average is great Sotek: 4 kill average is fucking amazing. acidile: makes the game move faster, sucks alot less for people out first couple days Sotek: But I hope next long game has like, .3 kill average. Benoit Haché: garcia if you're LEEROY you should immediately use it acidile: more question marks on what happened, less looking back logic] acidile: etc etc garcia999: I think sacrifice mechanic could use some changes next game Milski: Benoit, how would that benefit? garcia999: maybe just pierce protection instead of super roleblock acidile: yea Sotek: I think it should maybe not turn off priest check? Sotek: yeah acidile: i say priest checks still work garcia999: Useless powers this game: Sotek: or maybe JUST turn off GA? hmm acidile: but pierces protection Benoit Haché: Milsky: garcia would get MATH earlier Sotek: not sure about survivalist or traveller. garcia999: GODDAMN EVERYTHING Chump: because he is dead. Milski: Sacrifices seem to dominate everything. :/ Sotek: yeah :< Milski: The whole "nothing works" makes things rather annoying Sotek: YES. UGH. ChadMiller: yeah especially with werewolf Milski: And, oddly, seems to make the high power active roles (priest) terrible ChadMiller: because you can't even roleclaim garcia999: well, DoB got to use his power garcia999: apart from that: Milski: Aaaanyway, so... yeah, I did make a post Sotek: I mean, holy shit, witches sacrificed a witch n1, assassin got killed d2 and there was a spyclaim??? garcia999: Welcome to witchhunt! Your role is: NOTHING, YOU ARE USELESS Sotek: and witches are STILL possibly in really good shape? Sotek: :< Milski: Anyway, what are the odds on JW or WW being alive by pure numbers, exactly? garcia999: Well, town has to take two factions Sotek: oh Sotek: that is a good question mislki garcia999: and enchantress basically means -3 town automatically Sotek: I'll make my thinking post, then do sheer numbers post. acidile: milski i did the math yesterday and it was around 75-80% depending on assumptions SweetToes: COCKS acidile: now it's less probably garcia999: even without more town losses to lynching enchantress with protection acidile: also I need to post this now Benoit Haché: acidile gamepost Benoit Haché: yeah Benoit Haché: btw was that town-favored? Benoit Haché: the %s Benoit Haché: oh wait I am dumb acidile: chances of them being alive acidile: period acidile: each Benoit Haché: yesyes Benoit Haché: wait ChadMiller: and I am also not sold on "spy enchantress isnt' boned" Benoit Haché: so both of them or either/and? Milski: 70% alive chance? Milski: That seems really high considering most of the people are dead. Sotek: Milski: That was D2. Milski: Ah Benoit Haché: SpyEnchantress seems really good if only because they don't get Enchantress at all ChadMiller: talking about rules/balance discussion of course, not strat garcia999: I think Enchantress role is like garcia999: super warlock ChadMiller: yeah, maybe that spy can evade getting caught garcia999: am I right, guys? Even if you are discovered, you take 3 guys down with you ChadMiller: yeah true ChadMiller: DOB is spread too thin garcia999: because town has to basically do -double mislynch- garcia999: before it can kill enchantress ChadMiller: maybe it should be "you can only be lynched if both lovers vote for you" garcia999: this is game mechanic discussion, not game discussion I mean so it is ok imo acidile: enchantress seems to balance spy well ChadMiller: nah actually, that makes lover reveal too profitable Milski: Responded, Sotek Benoit Haché: Chad maybe the opposite? Milski: Also, I think that makes Enchantress+Witch lover really good. Milski: Because then the enchantress can never be lynched garcia999: how about enchantress gets one protection, conditional on lovers surviving? garcia999: too good? too weak? Milski: Enchantress+Town lover would be almost as safe, actually. That enchantress variant would have to be town only by the rules. Milski: Strictly worse than Warlock, then Milski: Also, Enchantress is the only role that can pre-game metagame. :: xServer just bounced for an update... wait a minute (or 3) and hit refresh Fiddly: Err Fiddly: there is a lot of talk here that should be in the forum Fiddly: moreover Fiddly: dead people Fiddly: should not comment on game startegy Way over the line here.
Just a question. Why are we trusting Sotek to decide that Garcia should be the one that is lynched? I'd rather think more before revealing. And what was the reasoning of going to Lovers instead of one of the other people?
I... you know what, nevermind Also I cancel my proxy to Sotek for now. I will proxy to another guy when I sleep It's possible he is a JW. Whether we should keep him alive in that case depends on the probability of WW being alive.
Why proxy votes at this point? There's still a lot of time left, and you're potentially giving WW a lot of power. Why not just let people post their reasoning, and then vote when you read it?
Well. If I use proxies to prematurely end debate, I think I am dead no matter what? Like, either I am JW and thus you guys are gonna lynch me, or I'm WW and thus I /need/ to nom Fiddly, in which case -Y- can just not-save me from garcia-lynch. (oh, hmm. Actually, I see a loophole for me if I'm WW. Here is the solution: Grant me proxies I can only use on garcia, and -Y-, conditionalize your martyrdom to only work if I lynch garcia without nomming anyone as WW!) I mean, I'm not WW, so whatever, but... yeah.
Woah that was badpost I meant to say, if garcia gets LEEROY JENKINS in next game, he should use it immediately, so mathphase would come sooner (jokepost)
Most of the strategy was in counterfactuals relative to this game, and was about design, I think? BH's line is over the top though, you're right, shit.
It ... really doesn't help, you're right. It's fine not to -why the fuck is the witch asking this? Ahem. It's fine not to proxy to me, although I fucking love what the fact the discussion even had to happen implies. <3 ALL YOU GUYS, ESPECIALLY YOU GUY, GARCIA!
yeah sure. What we've got is just this: Brainof7 has proxied his vote to Sotek. -Y- has proxied his vote to Garcia1000. -Y- may or may not have a conditional vote for Garcia1000 once he roleclaims. Like, it's not even worth counting.
acidile: so I'm assuming that this wh isn't moving on until tomorrow Chump: That seems like a safe/productive assumption? Sotek: well Sotek: brainof7 is gonna show soon? Chump: Unless he doesn't acidile: wh would be so fun irl Sotek: I prefer forum witchhunt Sotek: I would be SO BAD irl Chump: yeah acidile: haha acidile: I'm so good at reading people irl i think i'd own Sotek: like for most of d2 I was suspecting lofo was enchantress who got lynched for naming me/garcia lovers and then got owned by us playing too coy. I kept /giggling/ at things. :< acidile: but having a good memory would probably be the biggest assett Sotek: (hmm, is that over the line? I don't think so, but.) acidile: my reads this game acidile: were unreal Costafire: Being lovers with garcia is not over the line acidile: but yea acidile: post this UGH BRAINOF7 AND X1372 HURRY UP AND GET HERE SO WE CAN MOVE ON ;_;
Erm. This confuses me? I think -Y-'s martyr claim is the only pre-BH-reveal claim, though, aside from jiaflu's SHENANIGANS.
Can we talk about odds? Here is how I am doing the odds. For the eight kills in the game the probability of the werewolf surviving each one is: 16/17, 1, 11/12, 10/11, 1, 1, 9/10, 8/9 The product of that is 63%. So according to this reasoning, the werewolf has a 63% chance of being alive. Why does that differ from your math?
I'm ... hmm. I'm not sure I see that. First of all, we have FOUR confirmed non-WW deaths; Zejety, BH, jiaflu, and Fry. Second of all, we have information about roles - I'm doing it by trying to calculate odds of werewolf NOT being one of the ones we don't know about, which means I'm definitely off, and hmm, probably low, yeah. So your way is better-looking, but I think your numbers can't be right here.
In case this is confusing. 1) At first we lynch, I am assuming we lynch at random although we are slightly more likely to hit Werewolf than 1/17 but whatever. 2) Sacrifice can't be Werewolf 3) Witch Kills will be selected from living non-revealed witches. Of which there are 12 and 11 for the 2 kills respectively. Next two kills were from the coven, again can't be werewolf Then Chad's death was selected at random from the 10 living excluding Fiddly and -Y- Same with Link but with only 9 people.
OK so. Jiaflu can't be WW. Neither can Fry, BH, Fiddly, or Zejety. Nor can Chad! Discard ALL THOSE. I can discard me and garcia too, you guys obv. can't yet. So, for MY odds: there were 9 people it could have been N1. Odds of WW being NOT picked: 8/9*7/8 for N1. For N2: There is only one guy picked who could have been WW, so odds are 6/7 that he wasn't. That's 6/9ths of WW survival, 33% of him being dead, so ... shit.
Let's run my numbers for JW! Fry, BH, Fiddly, Zejety, Chad, me (replace me with yourself if you want, haha) are the only ones we can eliminate. So, the deaths: Jiaflu, Lofobal, Icewolf, Link. Four deaths, so 10/11*9/10*8/9*7/8 = 7/11ths. 63% of survival, slightly less than WW. BUT that's leaving knowledge out!
Sotek, what are the numbers with me and koopa confirmed? I am not entirely sure, but I think there is no possible way to disprove our claim (which is a good thing, since it is 100% true).
Bayes theorem in da house! I... have a headache because probability is hard, but I want to add that the three nightkills are random but that the ChadMiller kill is higher probability than normal
Ok yeah I see what I was doing wrong with my stats, I wasn't using knowledge of the kill outcomes to inform them. kind of dumb
So... probablity of WW/JW assuming we can be certain me and Koopa are town? For me that's only one more confirmed, but for others it would be two, so... Sotek, chop chop with your numbers.
I don't see why proxy-vote has to be a tell at all. I have friends IRL, and we randomly took a one day road trip to go to someone's wedding reception... What do you want to hear from me Sotek, I have another 30 pages of thread to read through still
SO let's use some knowledge! Koopatroop and Milskidasith can't be WW /or/ JW. Chad is still clear. -Y- is "clear". I see no way Garcia can be JW given his willingness to let me be the living guy. and I know he's not WW. Fry, BH, Zejety, and Fiddly of course can't be WW or JW. I can rule out myself for both. That's TEN ruled out. So, who are candidates of deaths? Jiaflu for JW but not WW. Icewolf and Lofo for WW and JW. Link for WW and JW. So ... four deaths that could have hit JW, with only seven role possibilities. 6/7*5/6*4/5*3/4 = just under 43% of survival. Likewise, three deaths that could have hit WW, only 7 possibilities. So ... 4/7ths, or just over 57% of survival. But! If we rule out acidile (which I am willing to do based on reads at this point) ... ... it's 33% for JW, and 50% for WW. And ... hmm, actual odds of a JW+WW world are ... 5/6 chance for Jiaflu to be neither, then, let's see. that 5/6 * 3/5*2/4*1/3 = 1/12. So odds of JW-only are 25%, odds of JW+WW are slightly over 8%, odds of WW-only are slightly under 42%, and odds of neither are 25%. In JW-only world I think we win, we have the numbers of safe guys, easy. JW+WW world, I dunno, I think WW eats too many people. WW-only world, I think WW eats too many people. Like, at this point I think werewolf has checkmate? What about if we clear Brain from being WW and JW? Then ... five possibilities left 4/5 for Jiaflu neither, 2/4*1/3 *0/2 = WW+JW not possible (!) so, do them separate there 4/5*..1/2 = 20% for JW alive. 4/5*..2/3 = 40% for WW aAlright chums, let's do this!
LEEROY JENKINS! The town is lynching Fiddly now. (bet you guys feel silly for worrying about how many proxies I had now, huh?)
Natorbot, what is the saddest thing? Sotek has died! Fiddly has been Lynched! The Elk Overlord laughs as it tramples their bodies! I was gonna post an awesome picture, but..... Night-time!