*~/WITCHHUNT Game 2\~*

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Chocolate Pi, Aug 18, 2010.

  1. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    I'm proxying my vote to sotek for D3. Do as you wish. I'm probably gonna sleep now, not sure when I'll wake up.
  2. acidile

    acidile Member

    I really don't know what I am supposed to post here. It's pretty obvious that any role-claiming now is a terrible idea, and it's pretty clear what lynching options we have (in all of the universes where we have a decent shot at winning). I still feel that we probably AREN'T in a double JW/WW universe, partly odds, partly a semi-read on link.

    garcia, what are your thoughts on Sotek being a possible JW? I just want to explore the options before we lynch anybody. x1372 and brain I would like to hear from too, before we do anything.
  3. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    Wow, I arguably have control of four votes. That's kind of amusing. (I mean, you could argue that garcia would have unproxied his vote, but...)
  4. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    Hmm good point acidile, It might be better not to proxy majority of our votes on lovers.
  5. -Y-

    -Y- Well-Known Member

    You do? Ok. Change proxy to garcia1000
  6. Fiddly

    Fiddly Member

    garcia999: Oh it looks like witchhunt is in the math stage!
    Benoit Haché: That ™ took me way too long to find btw ):
    garcia999: tbh I like th math stage less than the non-math stage
    Benoit Haché: garcia should be happy of 4 kill average
    Milski: Hello guys.
    Chump: yeah but you're not going to comeback in PS if your deck is shit
    Benoit Haché: makes math stage come by faster.
    Sotek: hi milski.
    acidile: I think 4 kill average is great
    Sotek: 4 kill average is fucking amazing.
    acidile: makes the game move faster, sucks alot less for people out first couple days
    Sotek: But I hope next long game has like, .3 kill average.
    Benoit Haché: garcia if you're LEEROY you should immediately use it
    acidile: more question marks on what happened, less looking back logic]
    acidile: etc etc
    garcia999: I think sacrifice mechanic could use some changes next game
    Milski: Benoit, how would that benefit?
    garcia999: maybe just pierce protection instead of super roleblock
    acidile: yea
    Sotek: I think it should maybe not turn off priest check?
    Sotek: yeah
    acidile: i say priest checks still work
    garcia999: Useless powers this game:
    Sotek: or maybe JUST turn off GA? hmm
    acidile: but pierces protection
    Benoit Haché: Milsky: garcia would get MATH earlier
    Sotek: not sure about survivalist or traveller.
    Chump: because he is dead.
    Milski: Sacrifices seem to dominate everything. :/
    Sotek: yeah :<
    Milski: The whole "nothing works" makes things rather annoying
    Sotek: YES. UGH.
    ChadMiller: yeah especially with werewolf
    Milski: And, oddly, seems to make the high power active roles (priest) terrible
    ChadMiller: because you can't even roleclaim
    garcia999: well, DoB got to use his power
    garcia999: apart from that:
    Milski: Aaaanyway, so... yeah, I did make a post
    Sotek: I mean, holy shit, witches sacrificed a witch n1, assassin got killed d2 and there was a spyclaim???
    garcia999: Welcome to witchhunt! Your role is: NOTHING, YOU ARE USELESS
    Sotek: and witches are STILL possibly in really good shape?
    Sotek: :<
    Milski: Anyway, what are the odds on JW or WW being alive by pure numbers, exactly?
    garcia999: Well, town has to take two factions
    Sotek: oh
    Sotek: that is a good question mislki
    garcia999: and enchantress basically means -3 town automatically
    Sotek: I'll make my thinking post, then do sheer numbers post.
    acidile: milski i did the math yesterday and it was around 75-80% depending on assumptions
    SweetToes: COCKS
    acidile: now it's less probably
    garcia999: even without more town losses to lynching enchantress with protection
    acidile: also I need to post this now
    Benoit Haché: acidile gamepost
    Benoit Haché: yeah
    Benoit Haché: btw was that town-favored?
    Benoit Haché: the %s
    Benoit Haché: oh wait I am dumb
    acidile: chances of them being alive
    acidile: period
    acidile: each
    Benoit Haché: yesyes
    Benoit Haché: wait
    ChadMiller: and I am also not sold on "spy enchantress isnt' boned"
    Benoit Haché: so both of them or either/and?
    Milski: 70% alive chance?
    Milski: That seems really high considering most of the people are dead.
    Sotek: Milski: That was D2.
    Milski: Ah
    Benoit Haché: SpyEnchantress seems really good if only because they don't get Enchantress at all
    ChadMiller: talking about rules/balance discussion of course, not strat
    garcia999: I think Enchantress role is like
    garcia999: super warlock
    ChadMiller: yeah, maybe that spy can evade getting caught
    garcia999: am I right, guys? Even if you are discovered, you take 3 guys down with you
    ChadMiller: yeah true
    ChadMiller: DOB is spread too thin
    garcia999: because town has to basically do -double mislynch-
    garcia999: before it can kill enchantress
    ChadMiller: maybe it should be "you can only be lynched if both lovers vote for you"
    garcia999: this is game mechanic discussion, not game discussion I mean so it is ok imo
    acidile: enchantress seems to balance spy well
    ChadMiller: nah actually, that makes lover reveal too profitable
    Milski: Responded, Sotek
    Benoit Haché: Chad maybe the opposite?
    Milski: Also, I think that makes Enchantress+Witch lover really good.
    Milski: Because then the enchantress can never be lynched
    garcia999: how about enchantress gets one protection, conditional on lovers surviving?
    garcia999: too good? too weak?
    Milski: Enchantress+Town lover would be almost as safe, actually. That enchantress variant would have to be town only by the rules.
    Milski: Strictly worse than Warlock, then
    Milski: Also, Enchantress is the only role that can pre-game metagame.
    :: xServer just bounced for an update... wait a minute (or 3) and hit refresh
    Fiddly: Err
    Fiddly: there is a lot of talk here that should be in the forum
    Fiddly: moreover
    Fiddly: dead people
    Fiddly: should not comment on game startegy

    Way over the line here.
  7. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member

    Just a question. Why are we trusting Sotek to decide that Garcia should be the one that is lynched?

    I'd rather think more before revealing.

    And what was the reasoning of going to Lovers instead of one of the other people?
  8. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Moderator (old) Staff Member

    you know what, nevermind

    Also I cancel my proxy to Sotek for now. I will proxy to another guy when I sleep

    It's possible he is a JW. Whether we should keep him alive in that case depends on the probability of WW being alive.
  9. Fiddly

    Fiddly Member

    Why proxy votes at this point? There's still a lot of time left, and you're potentially giving WW a lot of power. Why not just let people post their reasoning, and then vote when you read it?
  10. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member


    If I use proxies to prematurely end debate, I think I am dead no matter what?

    Like, either I am JW and thus you guys are gonna lynch me, or I'm WW and thus I /need/ to nom Fiddly, in which case -Y- can just not-save me from garcia-lynch. (oh, hmm. Actually, I see a loophole for me if I'm WW. Here is the solution: Grant me proxies I can only use on garcia, and -Y-, conditionalize your martyrdom to only work if I lynch garcia without nomming anyone as WW!)

    I mean, I'm not WW, so whatever, but... yeah.
  11. Benoit Haché

    Benoit Haché Member

    Woah that was badpost
    I meant to say, if garcia gets LEEROY JENKINS in next game, he should use it immediately, so mathphase would come sooner (jokepost)
  12. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    Most of the strategy was in counterfactuals relative to this game, and was about design, I think?

    BH's line is over the top though, you're right, shit.
  13. Fiddly

    Fiddly Member

    You're giving reasons why it might not hurt. How does it help?
  14. Fiddly

    Fiddly Member

    Referring to proxying in the above.
  15. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    It ... really doesn't help, you're right.

    It's fine not to -why the fuck is the witch asking this?


    It's fine not to proxy to me, although I fucking love what the fact the discussion even had to happen implies.

  16. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Moderator (old) Staff Member

    (it implies that those inactive guys should post more ok)
  17. acidile

    acidile Member

    Sotek, could you post an updated votecount including who is proxied to who?
  18. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    yeah sure.

    What we've got is just this:

    Brainof7 has proxied his vote to Sotek.
    -Y- has proxied his vote to Garcia1000.

    -Y- may or may not have a conditional vote for Garcia1000 once he roleclaims.

    Like, it's not even worth counting.
  19. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member

    I proxy my vote to Fiddly.

    Ok no I don't, it would be funny until he used it :p
  20. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member

    Garcia I don't think you should role claim just yet.
  21. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    Yes, I would like him to wait till I say to, at least. He can of course wait longer.
  22. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    acidile: so I'm assuming that this wh isn't moving on until tomorrow
    Chump: That seems like a safe/productive assumption?
    Sotek: well
    Sotek: brainof7 is gonna show soon?
    Chump: Unless he doesn't
    acidile: wh would be so fun irl
    Sotek: I prefer forum witchhunt
    Sotek: I would be SO BAD irl
    Chump: yeah
    acidile: haha
    acidile: I'm so good at reading people irl i think i'd own
    Sotek: like for most of d2 I was suspecting lofo was enchantress who got lynched for naming me/garcia lovers and then got owned by us playing too coy. I kept /giggling/ at things. :<
    acidile: but having a good memory would probably be the biggest assett
    Sotek: (hmm, is that over the line? I don't think so, but.)
    acidile: my reads this game
    acidile: were unreal
    Costafire: Being lovers with garcia is not over the line
    acidile: but yea
    acidile: post this

  23. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member

    Creating a time line of things who claimed before BH revealed. Y?
  24. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    Erm. This confuses me?

    I think -Y-'s martyr claim is the only pre-BH-reveal claim, though, aside from jiaflu's SHENANIGANS.
  25. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    oh hey koopatroop, I have to ask - did you add the "i am the priest :)" tag? :)
  26. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    I roleclaim that tag, Sotek.

    Nah, JK. I added the witchalock tag.
  27. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member


    hehe Chad get on email for this dumb post.
  28. ChadMiller

    ChadMiller Well-Known Member

  29. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member

    Can we talk about odds?

    Here is how I am doing the odds.

    For the eight kills in the game the probability of the werewolf surviving each one is:

    16/17, 1, 11/12, 10/11, 1, 1, 9/10, 8/9

    The product of that is 63%. So according to this reasoning, the werewolf has a 63% chance of being alive.

    Why does that differ from your math?
  30. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    I'm ... hmm. I'm not sure I see that.
    First of all, we have FOUR confirmed non-WW deaths; Zejety, BH, jiaflu, and Fry.

    Second of all, we have information about roles - I'm doing it by trying to calculate odds of werewolf NOT being one of the ones we don't know about, which means I'm definitely off, and hmm, probably low, yeah.

    So your way is better-looking, but I think your numbers can't be right here.
  31. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member

    In case this is confusing.

    1) At first we lynch, I am assuming we lynch at random although we are slightly more likely to hit Werewolf than 1/17 but whatever.

    2) Sacrifice can't be Werewolf

    3) Witch Kills will be selected from living non-revealed witches. Of which there are 12 and 11 for the 2 kills respectively.

    Next two kills were from the coven, again can't be werewolf

    Then Chad's death was selected at random from the 10 living excluding Fiddly and -Y-

    Same with Link but with only 9 people.
  32. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    OK so.

    Jiaflu can't be WW.
    Neither can Fry, BH, Fiddly, or Zejety. Nor can Chad!

    Discard ALL THOSE.
    I can discard me and garcia too, you guys obv. can't yet.

    So, for MY odds: there were 9 people it could have been N1.
    Odds of WW being NOT picked: 8/9*7/8 for N1.
    For N2: There is only one guy picked who could have been WW, so odds are 6/7 that he wasn't.

    That's 6/9ths of WW survival, 33% of him being dead, so ... shit.
  33. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    Let's run my numbers for JW!

    Fry, BH, Fiddly, Zejety, Chad, me (replace me with yourself if you want, haha) are the only ones we can eliminate.

    So, the deaths: Jiaflu, Lofobal, Icewolf, Link.

    Four deaths, so 10/11*9/10*8/9*7/8 = 7/11ths. 63% of survival, slightly less than WW.

    BUT that's leaving knowledge out!
  34. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    Sotek, what are the numbers with me and koopa confirmed? I am not entirely sure, but I think there is no possible way to disprove our claim (which is a good thing, since it is 100% true).
  35. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Moderator (old) Staff Member

    Bayes theorem in da house!

    I... have a headache because probability is hard, but I want to add that the three nightkills are random but that the ChadMiller kill is higher probability than normal
  36. koopatroop

    koopatroop Well-Known Member

    Ok yeah I see what I was doing wrong with my stats, I wasn't using knowledge of the kill outcomes to inform them. kind of dumb
  37. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    Right, but you have to pick a confidance to apply to his judgement, so ... ew?
  38. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    So... probablity of WW/JW assuming we can be certain me and Koopa are town? For me that's only one more confirmed, but for others it would be two, so... Sotek, chop chop with your numbers. :p
  39. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    Brain is online, waiting for him.
  40. brainof7

    brainof7 Member

    I don't see why proxy-vote has to be a tell at all. I have friends IRL, and we randomly took a one day road trip to go to someone's wedding reception...

    What do you want to hear from me Sotek, I have another 30 pages of thread to read through still
  41. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    CLAIM, NOW: survivor or not-survivor?
  42. brainof7

    brainof7 Member

    not survivor (survivalist right? guy with extra lives?)
  43. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    errr, yeah, that's what I meant.
  44. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member

    SO let's use some knowledge!

    Koopatroop and Milskidasith can't be WW /or/ JW.
    Chad is still clear.
    -Y- is "clear".
    I see no way Garcia can be JW given his willingness to let me be the living guy. and I know he's not WW.
    Fry, BH, Zejety, and Fiddly of course can't be WW or JW.
    I can rule out myself for both.

    That's TEN ruled out.

    So, who are candidates of deaths?
    Jiaflu for JW but not WW.
    Icewolf and Lofo for WW and JW.
    Link for WW and JW.

    So ... four deaths that could have hit JW, with only seven role possibilities.

    6/7*5/6*4/5*3/4 = just under 43% of survival.

    Likewise, three deaths that could have hit WW, only 7 possibilities.
    So ... 4/7ths, or just over 57% of survival.

    But! If we rule out acidile (which I am willing to do based on reads at this point) ...

    ... it's 33% for JW, and 50% for WW.

    And ... hmm, actual odds of a JW+WW world are ... 5/6 chance for Jiaflu to be neither, then, let's see. that 5/6 * 3/5*2/4*1/3 = 1/12.

    So odds of JW-only are 25%, odds of JW+WW are slightly over 8%, odds of WW-only are slightly under 42%, and odds of neither are 25%.

    In JW-only world I think we win, we have the numbers of safe guys, easy.
    JW+WW world, I dunno, I think WW eats too many people.
    WW-only world, I think WW eats too many people. Like, at this point I think werewolf has checkmate?

    What about if we clear Brain from being WW and JW?

    Then ...
    five possibilities left
    4/5 for Jiaflu neither, 2/4*1/3 *0/2 = WW+JW not possible (!)

    so, do them separate there
    4/5*..1/2 = 20% for JW alive.
    4/5*..2/3 = 40% for WW aAlright chums, let's do this!
  45. Sotek

    Sotek Well-Known Member


    The town is lynching Fiddly now.

    (bet you guys feel silly for worrying about how many proxies I had now, huh?)
  46. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member


    *Throws chicken to Sotek*
  47. Chocolate Pi

    Chocolate Pi Well-Known Member

    Natorbot, what is the saddest thing?

    Sotek has died!
    Fiddly has been Lynched!
    The Elk Overlord laughs as it tramples their bodies!

    I was gonna post an awesome picture, but.....


  48. acidile

    acidile Member

    umm lover deaths???????????????????????
  49. Milskidasith

    Milskidasith Active Member

    Sotek wasn't lynched. Garcia lives.
  50. garcia1000

    garcia1000 World Champion Moderator (old) Staff Member

    Hey, you guys

    Exciting developments

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